An interesting pattern has emerged amid the constant ebb-and-flow of the Formula 1 driver market, where the busyness of it changes every other year. So for 2023, for example, six teams had altered their line-up – most notably caused by the Oscar Piastri fiasco – before an unchanged grid the following season which marked a first in F1 history.
Vast change was on the cards again for 2025, however, the final campaign under ground-effect regulations, in what was no doubt the craziest market during the modern era – kickstarted by Lewis Hamilton’s blockbuster move to Ferrari. The Italian outfit was one of eight teams to freshen up their driver pairings as the grid looked towards the ruleswitch for 2026, aiming for stability heading into it.
That resulted in just two squads – both owned by Red Bull – making switches alongside Cadillac entering the championship. But sticking to the emerging pattern, the stability this year has set up an interesting landscape for 2027 where several teams are in the market, having now had up to a season’s experience of the new regulations and understanding who stands where in this era.
Over half the drivers have their contracts expiring at the end of 2026 and that includes Haas duo Oliver Bearman and Esteban Ocon, and the American outfit is expected to be a major player in the forthcoming ‘silly season’.
“Around now time, like May, June, July,” said team boss Ayao Komatsu, when asked for an estimation of when Haas will make a decision regarding 2027. “I think everybody’s looking at next year’s drivers. It’s not just us, everyone.”
The intrigue at Haas understandably surrounds Ocon, who fiercely denied “bulls**t” rumours heading into last weekend’s Canadian Grand Prix that he was set for an early exit. While that may not be true, there is no doubt that his seat is at risk for 2027 having performed well below expectations since joining in 2025.
Initially, his signing was seen as a major coup for Haas, having racked up well over 100 grand prix starts, a victory and four career podiums, but he has been frustratingly inconsistent and last year put some of his woes down to problems with the VF-25’s braking.
Ayao Komatsu, Haas F1 Team
Photo by: Sam Bagnall / Sutton Images via Getty Images
That doesn’t really stack up though when one looks at his now sophomore team-mate, who as a rookie finished three points ahead of Ocon. That gap has increased in 2026 so instead of joining from Alpine and being that ideal benchmark for Bearman, Ocon has simply been second-best.
Unless Ferrari therefore makes a surprise move for its academy graduate, who made his F1 debut with the team as a one-off in 2024, the 21-year-old is going nowhere and it’s just a matter of who will be Bearman’s stablemate in 2027.
So when Komatsu was pressed further on the subject, being asked if he would keep both drivers should he “decide today”, the boss elected to only focus on his grand prix winner.
“I think a question like this is going to create some s**t, right?,” said Komatsu. “Because then people are going to take my word and say, ‘oh, Ayao said if you decide now, you’re going to continue with Esteban, not continue with Esteban’. They take it completely out of context, so I’m not going to answer that question.”
But what happened next didn’t exactly help Ocon’s case, as the 29-year-old once again finished outside of the points in 14th while Bearman snuck in with P10 – granted he was helped by George Russell’s retirement and McLaren’s woes.
Nevertheless, it means Ocon has only scored one point across the opening five grands prix of 2026, 17 behind Bearman, who has effectively carried the much-improved Haas to seventh in the championship.
Esteban Ocon, Haas F1 Team
Photo by: Guido De Bortoli / LAT Images via Getty Images
“It was definitely hard work,” reacted Ocon. “We had a problem with the car, definitely, in this race. Not one lap where I didn’t manage to not lock, basically, the front tyre.
“Turn 10 was definitely the big one, but I went off, I think twice in Turn 8 as well during the race. We put the update in qualifying yesterday, we did two laps with it, so it was difficult to really see if everything was working well, but clearly in the race there was a problem with the car.
“So, we’ll try and fix it for Monaco and come back there better.”
How long Ocon can continue this mantra of blaming the car is an interesting one, particularly when Bearman is pretty good at accepting his errors and moving on, though it’s unclear who could replace him.
Haas could go down the same route it did with Bearman by signing a Ferrari youngster, which right now would be the reigning F3 champion, who is now in F2, Rafael Camara. But there are hesitations across the grid about picking from the junior categories considering how different the cars are.
Reserve driver Jack Doohan may also be an option, especially when he brings sponsorship money, but the struggles he endured at Alpine are still present and is Haas now beyond the point of hiring ‘pay drivers’?
Yes it has one of the smallest budgets on the grid, but its competitiveness has significantly increased this year and as a former engineer who has worked with world champions like Fernando Alonso, Komatsu will want two equally strong drivers who are capable of taking the team forward together.
Whether Ocon is the ideal driver for that remains to be seen. But time is running out for the F1 veteran…
Additional reporting by Ronald Vording
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– The Autosport.com Team
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