MLB’s 6 biggest storylines post All-Star break: Tarik Skubal’s future, Shohei Ohtani’s push for Cy Young and Aaron Judge’s return will dominate baseball

The dust has settled on a spectacular, star-spangled All-Star week. The draft was hilarious, the Home Run Derby was compelling and while the game itself was a dud, the surrounding theatrics were brilliant. MLB’s regular season restarts in earnest on Friday, the opening salvo to what should be a rip-roaring second half.

Let’s preview that second half by taking a look at some of the biggest storylines set to dominate the sport over the next few months.

On the evening of May 31, a trade involving the back-to-back AL Cy Young seemed extremely likely. The Tigers were 14 games under .500, owners of the worst record in the American League. Skubal, a free agent at season’s end, hadn’t pitched since late April after undergoing a cutting-edge, never-before-done procedure on his left elbow. A comeback date loomed, but nobody could say how sharp the southpaw would look upon returning.

But since the calendar flipped to June, Detroit has been the best team in the American League, playing to a 22-14 record that has the Tigers just 3.5 games out of a playoff spot. Skubal has looked good, though not elite, over six starts post injured list. Last week, a report from USA Today’s Bob Nightengale indicated that Skubal has no desire to get dealt and would prefer to spend the rest of 2026 as a Tiger. The standings, more than anything else, will dictate how things go. If Detroit is within striking distance of a playoff spot, it’ll hold onto Skubal. But if the Tigers stumble coming out of the break and tumble back down the standings a trade could be in play.

Will this trade deadline be a total snoozefest?

Might be! Especially if Skubal isn’t on the move.

Just eight teams enter the second half with single-digit playoff odds, according to FanGraphs. Two of those clubs — Washington and Cincinnati — might not operate as traditional sellers. And the remaining six teams — Athletics, Royals, Rockies, Giants, Angels and Mets — don’t have a cornucopia of impending free agents to deal away. There are obvious candidates to be moved including New York’s Freddy Peralta, San Francisco’s Luis Arraez and Anaheim’s Jorge Soler, but expect more sell-based trades than usual involving controllable players and teams in the playoff hunt.

That could be somebody like Baltimore’s Trevor Rogers (impending free agent on a team currently just two games back of a postseason spot) or Colorado’s Mickey Moniak (doesn’t hit free agency until after 2027).

Even though the deadline is less than three weeks away, it’s still too early to know which clubs plan on building for next year and beyond. As things currently stand, however, there might not be much movement.

Can Shohei Ohtani make a Cy Young push?

The final infinity stone.

Still just 32 years old, Ohtani has accomplished almost everything there is to accomplish during his singular MLB career. A Cy Young remains the only major trophy unlifted. This quest has shaped Ohtani’s season. For the first time, he and the Dodgers have clearly prioritized his on-mound exploits over his in-box ones. The result has been predictably impressive: A 1.79 ERA in 14 starts and 85 2/3 frames. Ohtani has punched out 10 hitters per nine innings while walking around 2.7. Despite a relatively small innings total, only four NL pitchers have compiled more fWAR than Ohtani.

Considering the whole picture (remember, he hits) it’s been a remarkable showing. But will it be enough to win a Cy Young? Not if Milwaukee’s Jacob Misiorowski has anything to say about it.

The Miz currently leads the National League in ERA (1.62), strikeout rate (13.54), opponents batting average (.148) and fWAR (4.4). Most notably, Misiorowski has worked deep into games — his 111 innings rank fifth in the NL.

For Ohtani to top the Miz with what will be a significantly lower innings count, the Dodger superstar has to finish the year with a lower ERA. Even then, Misiorowski would get the benefit of the doubt depending on how large the innings gap is. Other strong contenders like Philly’s Cristopher Sánchez (2.62 ERA in a whopping 127 1/3 innings), Atlanta’s Chris Sale (2.20 in 98) and Cincinnati’s Chase Burns (2.54 in 102 2/3) could also make a push.

Ohtani has delivered, but has the misfortune of delivering in a year with such an abnormally strong field of contenders. Dude has his work cut out for him.

The Yankee captain has been out since May 31 with a rib issue. General manager Brian Cashman told reporters last week that additional imaging would be done on Judge’s rib during the All-Star break in order to provide a clearer understanding of how the recovery process is going. The Yankees have held serve in the slugger’s absence, going 18-19 over that stretch, but have ducked behind the Tampa Bay Rays in the AL East. That gap currently sits at three games.

The sooner Judge returns, the likelier it is New York chases down Tampa for the division crown. Really though, Judge just needs to be back at his best by the postseason. The rest is icing.

Who wins the AL MVP?

Injuries to Judge, Skubal, José Ramírez and down years from Gunnar Henderson, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Cal Raleigh have created a compelling void in the AL MVP race. Bobby Witt Jr. entered the season with the second best odds and leads the AL in fWAR, but has generally underwhelmed relative to his track record at the plate. Witt’s Royals are bad and irrelevant, but a strong second half could make him the favorite.

If that doesn’t happen it’ll be a two-horse race between Houston’s Yordan Alvarez and Tampa Bay’s Junior Caminero. Alvarez leads baseball in almost every meaningful offensive category, but is a designated hitter with zero baserunning value. Caminero’s numbers are a tier below Alvarez’s, but the Tampa third baseman has caught fire of late and could easily close the gap.

Could Yankees ace Cam Schlittler, the runaway favorite for the AL Cy Young, throw his name in the mix as well?

Is any significant progress made on the CBA?

Commissioner Rob Manfred and MLBPA interim executive director Bruce Meyer drew battle lines over All-Star week, reminding media and the public where things stand ahead of what everyone expects will be a supremely contentious round of bargaining. Anything but a work stoppage when the current CBA expires on Dec. 1 would qualify as a massive surprise. The only question then is whether games are canceled and if so how many.

It’s unlikely that any major ground is made up between now and the end of the World Series. Because while the two sides have already presented proposals to one another, the ideological gap between the union and league remains cavernous. Usually things don’t get rolling until the games stop. Procrastination? These folks are just like us.