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No team is as good or as bad as its most recent game. This is the truest of gambling axioms, though it may not apply to a team’s 12 most-recent games. Regardless, do not overreact to the New York Knicks’ win in Game 1.
Certainly, do not overreact to certain stats, as sportsbooks seem to have when looking at their props, along with some San Antonio Spurs numbers.
My Knicks vs. Spurs NBA player props and these NBA picks run counter to some sportsbook movement simply because the value is too distinct to be explained away via one game.
Game 2 tips off at 8:30 ET on Friday, June 5.
Best Knicks vs Spurs props for Game 2
|
Player |
Pick |
|
|---|---|---|
|
Jalen Brunson |
Over 6.5 assists |
+120 |
|
Victor Wembanyama |
Under 26.5 points |
-110 |
|
Karl-Anthony Towns |
Over 1.5 3-pointers |
+150 |
Game 2 Prop #1: Jalen Brunson Over 6.5 assists
Jalen Brunson’s assists prop was set at 6.5 in Game 1, and the Under was priced at +115. Yes, the New York Knicks star dished out just two assists while taking 31 shots — that is not a typo; Brunson took 31 field-goal attempts — but this is still an overreaction.
If anything, Brunson’s inefficient-though-heroic Game 1 should strengthen the argument that he will move the ball in Game 2. The San Antonio Spurs should leave him little choice.
Postseason series are defined by adjustments. San Antonio will focus its defense on preventing Brunson from beating it again. For that matter, Brunson should devote himself to not going 12-of-31 from the field again. To some degree, New York got away with one in that regard.
But mostly, one game should not flip the plus-money on this prop. That is an overreaction that creates value.
Game 2 Prop #2: Victor Wembanyama Under 26.5 points
Only headlines keep this prop elevated. Victor Wembanyama has fallen short of this modest points prop in three of his last four games. He did not reach 27 points in four of the seven games in the Western Conference Finals and in four of the six games against the Timberwolves.
Remove ejections and injuries, and Wembanyama has still fallen short of this number in nine of 16 genuine games this postseason.
In this matchup, Wembanyama faces a stiffer defensive challenge than the public is willing to acknowledge. For years now, talking heads and the basketball illiterate have thrown insults at Karl-Anthony Towns because they refuse to learn the game or consider a player’s humanity.
Their simultaneous ignorance and arrogance prevented them from seeing his quality defense, particularly his lower-body strength.
Towns’s strength keeps Wembanyama off balance more than he is used to, as well as further from the rim. Credit Towns for Wemby going 6-of-21 in Game 1. Only his 12-of-13 free-throw shooting got the Frenchman to 26 points.
This has not been a postseason of consistent scoring from the Defensive Player of the Year. This NBA Finals shouldn’t be, either.
Game 2 Prop #3: Karl-Anthony Towns Over 1.5 3-pointers
Speaking of overreactions, this prop was priced at +120 in Game 1. Then, Towns went 0-of-2 from deep, boosting this payout to +150.
The odds increase makes some sense. Towns taking only a pair of 3-pointers is concerning. But the Spurs should try to cut off his drives to the rim after their success in Game 1. And doing so should naturally increase Towns’s 3-point attempts.
Going 0-of-2 in Game 1 lowered his postseason 3-point shooting percentage to 46.8%. Someone hitting nearly half their 3-pointers should not be priced at +150 to hit a pair of threes in Game 2.
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