Last night, the Nationals desperately needed to stop the bleeding. After four straight losses, with the first three coming in brutal fashion, we needed a hero to rise from the ashes. That is exactly what we got out of Foster Griffin tonight. The Nats ace dug deep to throw 112 pitches in 7 brilliant innings.
The $5.5 million signing from Japan has turned into one of the Nats best investments in a very long time. Right now, Griffin is on pace to throw 189.2 innings of sub-3 ERA ball. In April, there were times where it felt like Griffin was getting lucky. However, in this stretch, Griffin has just been completely dominant.
It is clear just how much manager Blake Butera trusts his lefty right now. Having a pitcher throw 112 pitches in 2026 is out of the ordinary. It takes a combination of trust in the starter and a lack of trust in the bullpen. That perfect storm was certainly taking place here. We saw in the 8th why Blake Butera did not trust his bullpen.
Usually when a pitcher is at 98 pitches through 6 innings, they are done. However, we should not assume that anymore with Griffin. Butera brought him out for one batter in the 8th in his last outing, and had him go up to 112 this time. We need to readjust our pitch count expectations in a way we have not had to since the days of Max Scherzer.
Like Grant said, I love it. This is a good example of Blake Butera using feel, though I think the numbers probably prefer Griffin over this bullpen right now as well. Butera has plans, but he is willing to change them if a player shows him reason to. We have seen Griffin go much deeper into games and Curtis Mead get more AB’s against right handed pitching.
For a while, Griffin’s ERA was way better than his underlying numbers, which were very mediocre. The ERA is still better, but the advanced metrics are starting to like what they are seeing from Griffin. Right now, Griffin has an ERA of 2.93, which is obviously phenomenal. However, his xERA and xFIP have both gotten below 4, which shows his process is becoming more sustainable.
After last night, Griffin has an xFIP of 3.58 and an xERA of 3.89. As much as I love Griffin, those numbers are probably a better representation of who he is as a pitcher compared to his sub-3 ERA. However, I do think Griffin’s 4.21 FIP is a bit misleading. Sure, he allows the occasional home run ball, but he gets strikeouts, groundouts and does not walk people.
Right now, Griffin is pitching at an All-Star level. The National League is stacked with starting pitchers, so I do not know if he gets in. However, it would be really cool and deserved if he did. Whenever the Nats need a win, Griffin is there for them with a masterful outing. There is a reason that the Nats are 13-4 in games that Griffin starts.
This month, Griffin has been outrageously good. He has an ERA of 1.15 in 31.1 innings across 5 starts. That innings total itself is also very impressive. Griffin is averaging about 6.1 innings per start, which is something only frontline starters do.
Despite not having huge velocity, Griffin has 33 strikeouts in June, which is 9.48 K/9. He also only has 4 walks all month. A 27.5% strikeout rate and a 3.3% walk rate is absolutely elite stuff. It is the kind of rates you see from Tarik Skubal or Paul Skenes, but Foster Griffin is doing it while throwing 91.
Unfortunately, Griffin is unlikely to win NL pitcher of the month due to the existence of Jacob Misiorowski. However, he and Logan Webb are battling it out for the best non-alien pitcher of the month. It is truly remarkable to see Foster Griffin do his thing out there.
After watching Griffin this year, it just makes me curious about whether there are more Foster Griffin types out in Japan. It also makes me wonder if more struggling pitchers at a crossroads will or should go to Japan. Clearly, those three years in Japan made Griffin a master at his craft. He added three new pitches and became a command wizard. Here is the ERA leaderboard in Japan for this year in case you are curious.
Finding guys on one-year deals from Asia could be a good way to extract value. Not only do these pitchers learn a lot over there, they also do not have the same level of scouting on them as guys from the big leagues. It takes a while for hitters to pick up on some pitchers’ changes. Even Erick Fedde had success after revamping his arsenal in Korea and then coming back to the MLB.
Foster Griffin has surpassed even the most optimistic expectations. Now the question is what do the Nats do with him? He is only on a one-year deal and will have value on the trade market. However, I also think the Nats should at least talk to him about an extension. This is the best Nats pitching season since Scherzer.
If Foster Griffin is only a National for half a season, boy will he be remembered fondly. I do not want the trade deadline to be the end of the Foster Griffin experience though. However, for Griffin to be a National past August 3rd, the Nats need to get back into the Wild Card mix or extend him. It has been a while since the Nationals have had a true stopper in the rotation, but Foster Griffin is that guy.
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