As the most recent member of the 20 jacks club, Munetaka Murakami has proven that he’s the real deal. As the first rookie ever to blast 20 homers before June, Murakami quickly progressed from winning over White Sox fans’ hearts to gaining national traction. In less than two months, his name is already getting thrown around with Kyle Schwarber, Yordan Alvarez and Aaron Judge in home run champion conversations.
Although the Sox have cleared the .500 bar, it’s much easier and more tempting to focus on the future than bask in a present where the Cubs are fighting to stay out of the NL Central cellar. Even two months out from the trade deadline, the biggest question still remains: What does Murakami’s future on the South Side look like now that it’s clear his big-league career isn’t going to peter out anytime soon?
Least Desirable and Least Likely: Traded at the Deadline
No matter the return, losing Murakami in July would be the biggest blow to the team and fans.
Murakami appears to be outplaying his 1.8 WAR in multiple ways. He’s the AL leader in runs scored (42), at-bats per home runs (9.8), and home runs (20, of course), while sitting in the Top 5 for qualified AL hitters for a number of categories:
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Slugging percentage (.561)
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Range factor per nine innings (8.44) at first base
Even if his production level isn’t steady for the rest of the season, the Sox won the first Crosstown series at home thanks to two Murakami tanks, so the first $17 million of his contract has already paid itself off. Clearing Murakami’s locker from the clubhouse wouldn’t kill the vibe or run production, but it would significantly stunt it.
Plus, there’s no reason to be greedy. Stocking up on Triple-A players when the Sox currently have four Top 100-ranked prospects and two highly-underrated players in Jacob Gonzalez and Ben Peoples isn’t just stingy, it’s illogical.
Jerry Reinsdorf can’t avoid the truth: Chicago can’t afford to lose Murakami before 2028.
Most Lucrative and Least Expected: Contract Extension
While Murakami may not garner the same degree of international following, keeping him in a Sox uniform would be the most lucrative option for the front office.
Murakami has undoubtedly been the best free agent investment the White Sox have made since perhaps the beloved Jermaine Dye in 2004. The Japanese Babe Ruth has played a significant role in increasing the Sox’s average game attendance by 12% (roughly 2,300 fans). White it may seem small, attendance revenue exponentially increases with each attendee. Taking Capitol City Now’s $62.37 estimated cost per fan per game, the estimated revenue from those 2,300-ish fans is roughly $145.5k, and that’s excluding merchandise sales. With Murakami’s salary sitting at about $105k per game he plays this season, the increase in attendance more than covers his bat in the lineup. Factoring in increased merchandise sales and media sharing revenue from international and domestic fans, the front office is sitting on a decent financial cushion that grows with each game the Sox win.
Keeping average attendance the same, the Sox can afford to pay him $23.5 million AAV. For a guy that could potentially lead the Sox to a winning season, it’s hard to see why the Sox wouldn’t cough up another $3.5 million and replace Murakami with Andrew Benintendi’s contract that expires in 2027.
Even with a 32.% strikeout rate and just over 42% whiff rate, the Sox aren’t getting shortchanged on Murakami. Until he proves otherwise, there’s no incentive or motivator to not give him an extension.
Most Expected: No Contract Extension
Fans are already begging future Sox owner Justin Ishbia to keep Murakami on the team beyond 2030, but one can only keep their head in the clouds for so long. Coming back to earth, Murakami will serve his two years while Sox fans soak up every moment of it before the Dodgers or Yankees swoop in winter 2027 and snag him for $250 million over seven years. But is this really a horrible outcome?
Barring significant injuries or a multi-month slump, Murakami’s price will inevitably be high heading into free agency. Because there are too many salary uncertainties surrounding free agency with the new CBA negotiations underway, it’s safe to assume that the Sox won’t be able to meet Murakami’s asking price, even if there’s a salary floor. Best-case scenario, the Sox drop more than $30 million on a guy that can’t hit better than .220 and whose home run output tampers to 20 in one season. Worst-case scenario, Murakami becomes the next Luis Robert Jr. and misses more than half of the season from injuries. And we all know how that one is going.
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