Blue Jays Farm System Mid-Season Review Part 1: Top 40 Prospects

Today and tomorrow, in advance of the trade deadline, I want to do a quick (relatively, it’s me writing) review of the state of the farm. It’s been an eventful year to date, with significant graduations, a trade addition already and more to come, and the draft, plus significant movement among the extisting members of the farm. Today, a look at pre-season top 40 prospects who are still eligible (though some have left the organization). Tomorrow, I’ll look at graduates, additions, and prospects not previously on the 40 or our honorable mentions who’ve made themselves known.

Stock Up:

• Nolan Perry (Matt’s Pref List) is the biggest riser in the system this season. Freshly back from Tommy John surgery, he’s absolutely carved through three levels so far this season, posting a total of 85 strikeouts (just under 40% of batters he’s faced) against only 19 walks and a 2.41 ERA in 56 innings. He’s a top 5 prospect in the system now, and if he finishes strong you could make a top 100 case.

• Daniel Guerra (Matt’s Pref List) looked great through early June, punching out 73 batters in 54.0 innings with the Vancouver Canadians and posting a 3.17 ERA. He missed a month with an elbow issue, but has K’d 9 against 4 base runners in two rehab appearances.

• Eric Snow (Tom’s Pref List) is a capable middle infield defender who makes loads of contact but fell to the sixth round because of a near-total lack of power. This year, he’s managed four home runs and 21 total extra base hits in 306 PA while earning two promotions, to Vancouver and then New Hampshire. He now shows just enough impact to profile as a utility infielder.

• Charles McAdoo (Just Missed) got his first crack at AAA this season, and then a cup of coffee in Toronto. He looked over-matched at the latter stop, but his Buffalo performance actually suggests improvement, with some contact gains and the plus raw that his his carrying tool.

• Franklin Rojas (#38) made the transition from the Dominican to the US complex for his age 19 season. He’s flashing doubles power, average contact, and a solid approach and still looks like he’ll stick at catcher.

• Carson Messina (#37) is back from the elbow inflammation that kept him out almost all of last season. He’s battled his command but is missing loads of bats and regularly touching 96, suggesting that the stuff that got him a $550k bonus is intact.

• Javen Coleman (#34) moved up to AA to start the season and continued to overpower with his mid-90s fastball, slider and splitter, posting a 35% strikeout rate while walking fewer than 6%. That just earned him a promotion to Buffalo, and he’s likely in the mix as soon as the Jays need a lefty reliever and have 40-man room.

• Sam Shaw (#31) was diagnosed with a blood clot in his shoulder at the end of last season that was apparently so serious his career was in doubt. He’s made a full recovery, though, and is building on last year’s A breakout with an even better campaign at A+. His power production won’t stay at this level, but he’s clearly hitting it hard enough, making a decent amount of contact, and has an excellent eye.

• Sean Keys (#17) has had a rough welcome to the major leagues, but he’s only there because he obliterated AA and AAA to begin the year and forced his way up. And even in MLB his contact and power metrics are promising. I’m sold that he’s some kind of MLB bat, even if it takes a while for him to find his footing.

• Blaine Bullard (#15) has exceeded expectations for his power production in his pro debut, with 8 homers and 26 total extra base hits in 75 games, while swiping 31 of 35 bases and looking good manning centre field. He’s got a little work to do on his approach and contact, but a 19 year old posting above average results in A ball is always a pleasant surprise.

• Johnny King (#10) continues his ascent. His strikeouts have dropped form an absurd 40% last year to a merely excellent 31% as he’s moved up to Vancouver, but he’s also trimmed his (still too high) walk rate, and hitters aren’t having any luck barreling him up. He’s made his way on to Baseball America’s top 100.

• Jojo Parker (#3) took a little while to get his bearings in A ball, but since June 1 he’s slashing .258/.397/.508 with almost as many walks as strikeouts. [NOTE: these stats are a few days old and don’t even account for his 2-homer Tuesday night]. In the Futures Game, he turned on a 101mph fastball to pull a laser to the wall. All of which is to say the bat looks to be as advertised, with discipline, contact, and power that could all be plus.

• Arjun Nimmals (#2) conquered A+ in his second attempt early in the season, then held his own in his first month at AA. He went down with a hamstring issue, and has been getting loads of extra rest since coming back, but he’s also got four home runs and two doubles with just a 21% K rate and a 13% walk rate since his return. There’s work to do on his pitch recognition, especially against high minors quality sliders, but everything else looks excellent.

Stock Down:

• Jackson Hornung (Matt’s Pref List) has seen his power evaporate in his second go at AA.

• Carson Pierce (Matt’s Pref List) has had a rough go in his return from a season missed with injury. He’s walked more batters than he’s struck out over 23.1 innings and missed a couple of months from late May to last week.

• Cade Doughty (Matt’s Pref List) has continued to struggle offensively in his third crack at AA, striking out too much for a hitter whose college power hasn’t translated.

• Irv Carter (Tom’s Pref List) struggled mightily with his command early in his first attempt at AA, and has been down since May with an injury.

• Enmanuel Bonilla (Tom’s Pref List) continues to show neither the hit tool nor the power that were the supposed justification for his $3.5m signing bonus. He’s really shown nothing as a pro to support expectations.

• Brandon Barriera (#40) struggled badly in seven appearances before going down with yet another injury. He’s pitching again, but at this point he’s off the prospect radar.

• Gilberto Batista (#35) has hit a bit of a wall in A+, with his strikeout rate dropping and his walks ballooning.

• Grant Rogers (#33) got by through AA with a deep repertoire and command, making up for the lack of even average stuff. It’s caught up to him in Buffalo, though, as advanced hitters are hitting everything he throws and hitting it hard.

• Yondrei Rojas’s (#32) jump in strikeouts from last season in Vancouver hasn’t translated at all to New Hampshire. He’s also back to walking too many batters.

• Edward Duran (#29) has been trying out a new aggressive approach in A+ and it hasn’t worked, crashing his OBP without cutting strikeouts. He can still catch really well, but will need to find an offensive approach for it to matter.

• Cutter Coffey (#24) hasn’t been able to carry the pop that powered his 2024 and 2025 up to AA in 2026, and his strikeout rate has jumped to 33%.

• Austin Cates (#22) hasn’t carried over his excellent form from 2025, seeing his walk rate jump and his strikeout rate dip. That’s gotten worse after a jump up to AA.

• Adrian Pinto (#21) shouldn’t be in this section if yo look at his slash line. He got promoted to AA and has walked as much as he’s struck out while hitting for some power. But he’s been on the IL for six weeks now and is looking at his fifth straight year of failing to record 200 PAs. If I thought he’d ever play 100 games in a season he’d be in the top 10.

• Landen Maroudis (#19) still has a live arm, but he’s in his second consecutive season of posting ugly results, and it’s starting to look like his command might just not be good enough to make it all work.

• Fernando Perez (#8) had a disastrous first four games of the year, walking 16 in just a dozen innings. That’s concerning for anyone, but especially a pitcher whose profile rests on top notch command rescuing middling stuff. He was placed on the non-injury development list in early May and hasn’t been heard from since.

Long Term Injury, Wait and See:

• Jared Spencer (Just Missed) is still recovering from surgery before he was drafted last season, as expected.

• Chay Yeager (#39) got Tommy John before the season.

• Micah Bucknam (#28) was placed on the full-season IL April 2nd. Details are sketchy, but he won’t make his pro debut until 2027.

• T.J. Brock (#25) just made his first appearance since 2024 Tommy John surgery at the complex a couple of weeks ago.

• Jake Bloss (#6) got hit pretty hard in his return to AAA and has since been sent back to the 7-day IL. The good news is that he brought a couple of extra MPH with him from the rehab gym. His fastball now sits almost 96, with corresponding increases in the sharpness of his off speed stuff.

• Ricky Tiedemann (#5) was already having a slow time working back from Tommy John, and then neck soreness has wiped out his June. He’s made it as far back as A ball, still sitting 97 with nasty secondaries and 7 Ks against 15 batters faced, so the stuff that made him the best left handed pitching prospect in baseball four years ago is still there, but we’ll need to see sustained health before we believe.

Steady-ish:

• Elaineiker Coronado (Tom’s Pref List) is a fast, slick fielding shortstop who makes load of contact. Repeating the DSL, he’s now showing the barest hints of power. We’ll need to see him not get the bat knocked out of his hands in the States before we trust that he’s strong enough for his other tools to play.

• Jackson Wentworth (Tom’s Pref List) hasn’t managed great results in AA this year (18.4% K rate, 9.5% walk rate, 4.83 ERA), but that still basically looks like a future 7th starter.

• Michael Mesa (Tom’s Pref List) got a significant bonus in last year’s international free agent class. In his DSL debut, he’s been a mild disappointment, putting the ball on the ground too much to get to his power while posting just ok strikeout and walk numbers.

• Jace Bohrofen (Just Missed) looks like a stock-up candidate, with his .931 OPS but it’s still hard to see how a 62% AA contact rate won’t get him eaten alive against better competition.

• Alex Amalfi (Just Missed) has developed a home run problem after very effectively suppressing the long ball the past three years. He’s still missing plenty of bats, and has trimmed his walk rate a bit, but he’ll need to get that back under control to reach his ceiling as a swing man/depth starter.

• Juan Caricote (#26) is in his first pro season in the DSL. He’s been over-aggressive but he’s flashing the power that was his offensive carrying tool and throwing out his share of runners from behind the plate.

• Tim Piasentin (#23) struggled with swing and miss in his complex debut before going down a little over a month ago with an injury. He’s just 19, though, and was always considered a project, so no flashing lights yet.

• Jake Cook (#18) has just about held his own in A ball. That’s normally a significant knock for a 22 year old college draftee, but Cook is in just his second year after converting pack to a position player from the mound. He’s unusually raw and the athleticism that got him drafted is showing in the field and on the bases, so I’m inclined to give him a little longer to figure something out.

• Silvano Hechavarria (#16) has had an ugly season, ERA-wise, after his start was delayed by an injury. He’s looked to be finding his footing a bit recently, so I’m going to hope that he has a strong second half.

• Victor Arias (#14) has struggled a bit since his promotion to AA late last season. This year, he’s improved his contact somewhat and is hitting for power, but at the cost of walks, and his overall line is about average.

• Juan Sanchez (#12) has been a bit over-matched in A ball, with more strikeouts and fewer walks than you’d like. He’s shown power, though, and some signs of progress. For one of only a couple dozen 18 year olds in full season ball that’s enough to hold your shares.

• Gage Stanifer (#11) looks about like he did last season: He’s striking out 30% of the batters he’s facing but walking too many. He looks on track to be a likely leverage reliever with an outside chance that command refinement allows him to be a high-K five and dive starter.

• RJ Schreck (#9) looks just like he did last year. He walks a lot, doesn’t swing and miss much, and while his raw power is modest he gets to enough in games. He might not have the wheels for CF or the pop for left as an everyday guy, but he does enough well that I think he’s at least a luxury OBP-first fourth outfielder.

• Josh Kasevich (#4) is stuck at AAA, blocked by healthy seasons from Andres Gimenez, Ernie Clement and Kazuma Okamoto. He looks to be past his own injury troubles from last season, though, and he’s doing his usual thing: making loads of contact, surprisingly hard, but too low and too often oppo for it to produce power. MLB is the only test left for him to pass at this point.