After 27 years, the Knicks are back in the NBA Finals, with a real shot to win a championship for the first time in 53 years.
Standing in New York’s way are the 62-20 San Antonio Spurs and 7-foot-4 superstar Victor Wembanyama. Both teams have some familiarity with each other, as the Knicks defeated the Spurs in the NBA Cup championship game in December.
The Spurs are coming off a highly competitive seven-game series against the Oklahoma City Thunder. New York has cruised through much of the playoffs, entering the Finals with an 11-game winning streak.
As we’ve seen in the NBA, these opportunities don’t happen often. Last year’s NBA finalists, the Indiana Pacers and Oklahoma City Thunder, did not repeat, continuing a recent trend of teams unable to get back to the finals. That adds more pressure for the Knicks and Spurs to make the most of the moment.
Let’s dive into three keys to the NBA Finals opener on Wednesday night in San Antonio…
Forcing turnovers
The Spurs are a young team, and from time to time, that youth shows up in the form of turnovers. One of San Antonio’s weaknesses exposed during the Conference Finals was a tendency to cough up the rock. The Spurs had at least 15 turnovers in four of the seven games played against the Thunder. In the postseason, the Spurs have a turnover rate of 15.2 percent, which is ranked 11th out of 16 playoff teams.
Specifically, Spurs guard Stephon Castle had some shaky moments, recording 11, nine, and six turnovers in three different games against the Thunder.
Forcing miscues from San Antonio will also help New York’s offense, since the Knicks can create transition scoring opportunities. New York thrived in the Conference Finals, scoring on misses and makes against the Cleveland Cavaliers. In the postseason, New York is averaging 1.32 points per possession on transition opportunities, per NBA Stats, the No. 1 scoring rate among all playoff teams. That would put less pressure on having to consistently create great looks in the halfcourt.
Paint touches
There’s no better rim protector in the NBA than Wembanyama. He led the NBA in blocks per game during the regular season and is tops in the category during the postseason.
But the most meaningful indicator of Wembanyama’s impact is how little teams attack the paint when facing the Spurs. In the first two playoff rounds, 41.4 percent of the Thunder’s points were scored in the paint, per NBA Stats. That number dipped to 34.9 percent against San Antonio, which would be last in the NBA during the regular season.
New York has relied heavily on attacking the paint in the playoffs, with 44.4 percent of its points coming near the basket, fourth among all playoff teams.
Wembanyama and the Spurs will look to limit the interior scoring opportunities, with him defending Josh Hart for much of this series and lurking on the backline to disrupt any drives. Jalen Brunson‘s ability to pull up from three and midrange is valuable in a series like this.
Can the Knicks pull the 7-footer away from the basket? There’s some possible solutions, such as using Hart as a screener more often, or going to five-out lineups with Landry Shamet or Miles McBride in Hart’s place.
Paint points in the halfcourt will be a challenge the Knicks have to figure out.
Going to Towns
With Wembanyama expected to be guarding Hart, San Antonio will have a smaller defender on Karl-Anthony Towns for a lot of this series. In New York’s most recent game against the Spurs in early March, Castle defended Towns at the start of the game, and other defenders like Harrison Barnes and Keldon Johnson checked the big man.
Towns doesn’t have to score relentlessly like he has in the past. During this playoff run, he’s averaging a modest 16.9 points, the second-lowest scoring numbers of his career. Some of that can be attributed to the high number of blowouts where the Knicks have been able to rest their starters. But Towns has also become more of a distributor, averaging 5.9 assists in 14 playoff contests.
A second-year pro, Castle is a great defender, but he’s listed at 6-foot-6. Towns should be able to find windows to make plays both for himself and his teammates. His scoring, playmaking, and offensive rebounding will be important in this series.
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