The 2026 NBA Finals are set, and in their first return in 27 years, the Knicks seek to get revenge for their last appearance, a five-game loss in 1999 to the San Antonio Spurs. It won’t be the walk in the park the Eastern Conference was, so let’s break down the strategies and adjustments we’re likely to see and predict this year’s eventual champions.
Any series including San Antonio will center around the team’s defense, and especially its anchor and star, Victor Wembanyama. The third-year player is living up to the most optimistic fans’ hype, leading his team to the Finals behind 23.2 points, 10.8 rebounds, and 4.4 stocks per game.
It’s his presence in the paint that fundamentally changes how teams approach their offense. Players are either too timid to attack the rim around his otherworldly length, or they test it to mixed results, with Wembanyama sometimes even baiting guys by pretending to not see a driver before quickly turning and swatting the ball into the eighth row.
New York has a built-in advantage with its ability to spread the floor with five shooters, but the Spurs will challenge that early by letting Wembanyama hover off Josh Hart. The Knicks have had to switch lineups or hope Hart connects on threes to punish this adjustment, and they’ll have to again.
Until then, Karl-Anthony Towns’ pinch-post creation and flex-action fun won’t be so effective. He’ll get lots of one-on-one opportunities and similar looks he got against Cleveland, and will have to take advantage that way.
Of course, Jalen Brunson will be pivotal as the Knicks’ captain and leader of their offense. His ability to kill teams from the mid-range and pulling up from three will need to be leveraged specifically against Wembanyama, so he has to actively work and cover ground vs. wait in the paint.
Drop conservatively and Brunson can hurt you with his jumper, play more aggressive coverage and the Spurs get in rotation, Wembanyama gets fatigued. Expect lots of switching and random traps when Wembanyama isn’t guarding the action directly.
The good news is Brunson will get opportunities to matchup hunt. San Antonio is stocked with positive defenders, but few perimeter standouts and some real targets for Brunson.
De’Aaron Fox, Dylan Harper, Julian Champagnie and Carter Bryant will be tested in isolation. Stephon Castle likely gets the initial matchup and is the best defender Brunson’s had to face since Dyson Daniels, so how he fares will be crucial, especially if Wembanyama’s mucking up the off-ball stuff.
The other big edge for New York here is its wings. Mikal Bridges and OG Anunoby outsize and out-talent San Antonio’s swingmen, each recording a 25+ point game against them this season, and both are playing exceptional offensive ball these Playoffs, so the Knicks will need them to aggressively attack mismatches and the paint.
One concern for the Knicks is getting enough out of their bench. The Spurs aren’t especially deep with their current rotation, but do boast the Sixth Man of the Year plus the explosive Harper.
Meanwhile, New York’s bench was quietly comatose for much of the Cleveland and Philadelphia series outside of Landry Shamet. The Knicks will need big performances out of him, Miles McBride and Mitchell Robinson (who appears to be playing through a broken pinky) to take advantage of the non-Wembanyama minutes.
Surprisingly the Spurs haven’t been dominant on either side of the glass this postseason, opening the door for the Knicks to win extra possessions here, especially from their wings and guards. Both teams are pretty careful with the ball, so the first to get sloppy with it will be fighting an uphill battle.
It’s not a big edge to bank on, but the Knicks should have the experience and fatigue factors in their corner here. San Antonio has played a couple full-length, physical series now while New York’s coasted, and frankly carried a “do or die” business-only attitude while the young Spurs look genuinely thrilled just to be here.
But those don’t impact the court like the actual basketball does, and San Antonio will need a strong plan of attack for its offense against this stifling New York playoff defense. The Spurs want to get Wembanyama going in the paint to open up their three-point shooters, and the Knicks will try to shut them down like they did their previous postseason foes.
It’s possible Anunoby gets the start on Wembanyama to try to make post positioning difficult, and put Towns on Castle so he can roam and clog the paint. Options to “hide” Brunson are scant, so it’ll likely be Champagnie or Castle if the Hart treatment isn’t working.
Bridges and Hart will likely get the Fox and Devin Vassell assignments. Bridges has been instrumental in shutting down opposing guard play, so if he can cut off many of Fox’s and Harper’s pick-and-rolls it would do wonders to muck up the Spurs offense.
The Knicks can win the series on this end by continually getting stops and getting out in transition, not allowing the Spurs defense to ever get set or get a rhythm. They’ve played with terrific pace thus far, but their opponent likes to go up-and-down too, so it may not be a big advantage like in past series.
Towns and Robinson will get their one-on-one opportunities to guard Wemby and will have to step up. He’s shown he can get muscled out of comfortable positions, but other guys have stepped up, so it will need to be a top-to-bottom effort.
All of San Antonio’s guards have strong creation ability and the shooters to space the floor for them, so they’ll need to be guarded closely and run off the line. They’re also incredibly effective at getting out in transition, so New York will need to control the ball, crash the offensive boards and, most importantly, convert its shots to avoid this.
The last two Spurs series were grind-it-out defensive battles, and this Finals falling into that pattern could be beneficial to them. But it’s hard to shake the feeling the Knicks will have a better chance as the series goes to six and seven games. It’s possible this all comes down to 2-3 close games, but San Antonio’s only 1-3 these playoffs in crunch time, though New York hasn’t had many convincing reps either.
After three grueling rounds, there isn’t much left to discover about either of these teams. We know what they want to do, we know the counters they might employ, we just don’t know the ultimate result.
Prediction: Knicks in 6.
Read the full article here