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As the NBA playoffs approach, one of the more surprising storylines has been the betting odds favoring the seventh-seeded Golden State Warriors over the second-seeded Houston Rockets.
On the most recent episode of “The Kevin O’Connor Show,” guest Esfandiar Baraheni and host Kevin O’Connor examine the playoff matchup and why oddsmakers are favoring Golden State — and whether the Warriors deserve that status.
Are Stephen Curry and the seventh-seeded Warriors deserving favorites over the second-seeded Rockets? (Photo by Ezra Shaw/Getty Images)
(Ezra Shaw via Getty Images)
Oddmakers believe in the Warriors … but should they?
While playoff intensity and game-planning do tend to favor experienced teams and might explain why Golden Sate is a -190 favorite to win the series at BetMGM, Barahini suggests Houston’s defensive versatility and depth might give it more than a puncher’s chance — especially when it comes to slowing Steph Curry.
“I’m a little surprised that Golden State’s so heavily favored as a 7 over 2,” Baraheni says. “I feel like Houston has played Golden State very well this season.”
But a number of reasons for the Warriors’ favored status are laid out: their reputation for playoff poise, the clutch brilliance of Curry and, now, Jimmy Butler, plus a much-improved defense since acquiring Butler midseason.
“You have a guy [Curry] who you can rely on every single time” O’Connor says. “I think this will be one of those series where every game is going to go down to the wire. Every game is going to be very close.”
There’s a certain comfort in betting on established champions, especially in late-game situations.
The Rockets’ case: Defense, depth and matchups
But the discussion doesn’t shy from the reasons to be bullish on the Rockets, either. Houston finished the year as one of the NBA’s best defenses, with plenty of size in Alperen Şengün and Steven Adams and disruptive perimeter players in Amen Thompson, Dillon Brooks and Fred VanVleet. In fact, Baraheni specifically mentions Thompson as someone who has “shut the water off” on Steph in previous matchups, and Houston’s team defense as capable of supporting its big men on the perimeter — unlike some of Golden State’s previous opponents.
O’Connor also highlights the rebounding advantage Houston has.
“If you look at the way those Şengün/Adams [lineups] perform, the reason that thing works offensively is because they generate so many offensive rebounds,” O’Connor says. “They crash the glass.”
With Golden State’s relative lack of size on the interior, this presents a crucial potential swing factor.
Is experience everything?
What tips the scale for those picking the Warriors? According to O’Connor and Baraheni, it’s the question of late-game offense and experience.
Golden State has thrived in the clutch this season, while Houston, for all its defensive prowess, has struggled to create clean looks and score consistently in fourth quarters.
“I just trust Steph Curry and Jimmy Butler more than I do Jalen Green or Şengün or Fred VanVleet,” O’Connor says.
Prediction: It’s closer than the odds suggest
While O’Connor picks the Warriors in seven, and Baraheni slightly favors Houston in six, it’s going to be a closer matchup than many believe. “I think people are discrediting the Rockets a little bit too much,” O’Connor says.
Both agree Houston might be underrated, not just for its defense and rebounding, but for its potential to disrupt Golden State’s offensive flow with its physical style.
To hear the full discussion, tune into “The Kevin O’Connor Show” on Apple, Spotify or YouTube.
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