The Yankees’ bullpen has dealt with underperformance, bad luck, and a lack of clearly defined roles through mid-May. And yet, the unit ranks fifth in baseball in ERA. Aided by a starting rotation which has shouldered a lion’s share of the workload and overperformances by two little-heralded lefties, New York’s relievers have somehow managed to keep pace.
As I do each month in a given season, I’m going to take a look at the Yankees’ relievers to identify how manager Aaron Boone is deploying each and offer a verdict as to how much trust we can place in them moving forward.
Statistics below are as of the morning of May 15th.
The Closer
David Bednar
Season stats: 18 IP, 3.50 ERA, 22 SO, 2.38 FIP, 10 Saves (in 11 opportunities)
Bednar has not been a shutdown closer. That fact has not prevented him from getting the job done. Of the eight games in which he’s allowed at least one run, only one has resulted in a blown save. He’s avoided the big inning, permitting only one home run, and hasn’t walked a batter since April 17, limiting traffic as he’s worked around some base hits.
View Link
Confidence level: High
Bednar’s peripherals may be the strongest of his career. 40 percent of the time opponents swing at one of his pitches, it’s outside the strike zone, helping along an elite 57.7 percent ground-ball rate. His expected ERA of 2.39 is more in line with his career benchmarks and suggests the veteran closer is right where he needs to be.
The Middle Relievers
Camilo Doval
Season stats: 15.2 IP, 5.74 ERA, 17 SO, 4.00 FIP
The Yankees do not have a set-up man. That’s because Doval, who was handed the job out of camp, has struggled mightily, creating a vacuum which has yet to be filled. Despite allowing 10 runs in 15.2 innings, Doval remains in the mix for late-inning opportunities. He’s looked better, though by no means dominant, in May, pitching to a 3.38 ERA in six outings.
Confidence level: Low
Part of the reason the former Giants’ closer is still involved in high-leverage spots may be his pedigree, but part of it is his underlying numbers. Doval has a sparkling expected ERA of 2.86, driven by a miniscule 4.5 percent walk rate and an ability to keep the ball on the ground. That gives some cause for hope that he can turn things around, but the right-hander is yet to build confidence that he will do so.
Fernando Cruz
Season stats: 16.2 IP, 2.70 ERA, 24 SO, 4.13 FIP
With Cruz, the formula is simple: here’s my splitter, good luck hitting it. After opponents batted .178 against the pitch last year, it was fair to wonder if the league would adjust. Through this point in the season, they’re hitting .139 against it. Sure, batters are raking against Cruz’s four-seamer and he’s walking more than a batter every other outing. But, as long as that splitter continues to dominate, his formula for success is clear.
View Link
Confidence level: High
Cruz is red hot, having allowed only one earned run in his past nine appearances. Boone has continued to use him in key spots, often in the middle innings of close games when the outcome is still very much in the air.
Brent Headrick
Season stats: 21.2 IP, 2.08 ERA, 23 SO, 3.29 FIP
After getting his ERA as low as 1.37 after a victory on May 7, Headrick has allowed runs in his last two outings.
View Link
It could be the beginning of a regression anticipated by just about any predictive metric, though the 28-year-old has done plenty to earn the trust Boone has placed in him. One thing to keep an eye on is some gaudy splits. Bizarrely, the southpaw has dominated righties (.538 OPS) but struggled against lefties (.914) He’s also pitched much better at home (.368 OPS) than on the road (.931).
Confidence level: Medium-High
Underlying metrics and unsustainably extreme splits, as well as an unremarkable track record before this season, suggest that Headrick’s early run of success may not last. Time will tell, but for now, he’s well established as a high-leverage option, and for good reason.
Tim Hill
Season stats: 18 IP, 1.00 ERA, 7 SO, 3.38 FIP
In last month’s column, I lamented how difficult it is to find new angles to discuss “old reliable” himself. Since then? Hill has tossed seven scoreless innings. The man walks no one and gets opponents to put 73.2 percent of batted balls on the ground, far and away tops in baseball. 20 appearances into the season, he’s still just allowed one home run.
Confidence level: High
FIP and expected ERA anticipate some regression from Hill. I can guarantee you that the 36-year-old does not care. Clearly, neither does Boone, who’s quickly elevated the southpaw from lefty specialist to pseudo set-up man.
The Long Relievers
Paul Blackburn
Season stats: 17.2 IP, 4.08 ERA, 11 SO, 4.29 FIP
The Yankees re-signed Blackburn, who’d started 86 big-league games in his career, this offseason to serve as a long reliever. So far, he’s fit the role like a glove. When Boone wanted an opener for a Brendan Beck spot start? Blackburn took the bump in the first. When Max Fried exited with an injury after three innings? Blackburn stepped in. He’s been eminently solid, pitching to a 105 ERA+ and eating innings at a pro level.
View Link
Confidence level: Medium
Assuming he continues to be used in low leverage spots, Blackburn provides a solid floor. There’s nothing under the hood to suggest he’s on the path to more prominent usage.
The Mop-Up Men
Ryan Yarbrough
Season stats: 15.2 IP, 3.45 ERA, 14 SO, 3.49 FIP
Yarbrough has largely been used in blowouts, mopping up in games that are already out of hand. Still, his ERA+ of 124 is exemplary. The lefty’s peripherals, including a 2.22 xERA and 18.2 percent hard-hit rate, suggest those outcomes may not be a fluke, though the sample size remains small.
Confidence index: Low
Despite better outcomes than Blackburn, Yarborough is clearly below his right-handed counterpart in Boone’s pecking order. The lack of confidence here is not his fault; it’s simply impossible to put trust in a pitcher who’s only pitched twice in the last three weeks. Given this lack of usage, it’s unclear if the southpaw will continue to maintain his spot in the bullpen long-term.
Jake Bird
Season stats: 13.1 IP, 4.73 ERA, 14 SO, 3.11 FIP
May has been kind to Jake Bird. After entering the month with a 7.00 ERA, he’s turned in six scoreless appearances.
View Link
The right-hander hasn’t looked particularly dynamic, striking out four against three walks, but beggars can’t be choosers. On the season as a whole, opponents are hitting .200 against his sinker after batting .345 against the pitch last year. Given it’s his primary fastball, that difference could end up having a major impact.
Confidence level: Low
Considering the open-ended nature of the Yankees’ bullpen picture, if Bird continues to perform well, he could start to see himself inserted in more high-leverage spots. The Yankees clearly think highly of his stuff; expect them to continue looking for opportunities to get him involved.
Read the full article here
