The variations giving teams hope in a constrained F1 Italian GP

When Monza was resurfaced ahead of last year’s Formula 1 Italian Grand Prix, it prompted a degree of conservatism; the McLarens, for instance, opted for a two-stop strategy and stuck to it. It did not know that Ferrari was about to rock its world by pursuing a one-stopper.

Pirelli believes that a one-stop will be the best scenario this year too. The expected level of graining has not been particularly forthcoming across the trio of practice sessions, and so the national-average approach to tyre strategy is expected to be a medium-hard progression.

The Italian company’s motorsport chief Mario Isola believes that this could be reversed, should an out-of-position qualifier wish to go long and make use of the softer compound in the latter stages of the grand prix.

So, budding strategists might be a touch disappointed by the linearity – but all is not lost. Isola reckons that, should a team be able to pace their medium tyres (or hards) in the opening stint, then the soft could come into play.

“If anyone is able, for example, to extend the first stint for more than 30 laps on the medium, then the soft could be an option,” Isola reckoned. “We know that the delta-lap time, the performance difference between the medium and the soft is not big.

“Two stops is not an option unless there is an element of disruption during the race, that could be a safety car or anything else.

“The majority of drivers have only one hard and one medium [Verstappen has two hard sets, Hadjar has two medium sets, and the Mercedes drivers are likely to carry a used medium set into the race alongside a new medium] and the soft could be an option in case of any unpredictable situation. If they need an additional set, they can use a soft.”

On the subject of Mercedes and its use of the medium in qualifying; Isola explained that Russell had reported more consistency in the yellow-walled tyre at high speed.

Russell asked to use the medium in the last runs of Q3, but was denied that opportunity; presumably, Mercedes wanted to keep it untouched for Sunday’s race, as he’d headlined Q1 on the middle compound.

“This is not the first time that we have a similar situation; when you move to soft compounds, they are probably a little bit more peaky compared to the harder compounds.

“To find the peak of grip is not easy, and sometimes soft compounds are moving a little bit, the compound is soft, so it gives a little bit of movement to the tread, and this is not, for some drivers, a nice feeling, so they prefer to have one step harder compound, because they have a better feeling and they can push more on that.”

If you see a driver extending their stint on the medium and pushing beyond that 30 lap mark, that means that they’re likely to go for a soft to finish the race on, while stops around lap 20 will be for the hard. And vice versa; if a driver starts on the hard, one of them might gamble with a long stint and hope that a soft can bring a few late changes in position.

Charles Leclerc was the only driver to try a long run on the soft tyres during FP2, so it may well be a consideration for Ferrari as it hopes to follow up on last year’s victory with a surprise strategy call.

Charles Leclerc, Ferrari

Photo by: Clive Rose / Formula 1 via Getty Images

There won’t be many opportunities to undercut another driver, given the low degradation experienced. Isola stated that the potential for an overcut strategy hadn’t been considered but, depending on track position, this could present an option to those looking to make a move on a driver ahead – but having found themselves stalling out, even with a slipstream and DRS.

The strategists don’t have a lot to work with, which rather means that those who can dig a race-winning strategy out of the options provided have really earned their money. But if there’s a safety car to disrupt the likely slew of one-stops, then that’ll be a real test of the teams’ on-the-fly decision making.