The Spurs find themselves 0-2 in the Finals, and the way they got there isn’t surprising. The Knicks have been a horrific matchup for a while in no small part because San Antonio lacks size at the forward spots, an issue that has been apparent for a while but has only recently become troublesome. And Johnson was expected to be part of the solution.
Keldon won 6MoY because he impacted the offense significantly and did the little things. He’s been the big forward the Spurs have been able to count on, but his struggles in the playoffs have been real and have limited his impact against the Knicks. As of this writing, FanDuel had the odds of Johnson having at least 8.5 combined points and rebounds in Game 3 at -102 and the odds of him not getting there at -130, underscoring how little is now expected of a player who averaged 13.2 points and 5.4 rebounds in the regular season.
It’s not Keldon’s fault that the team needs him so badly
The Spurs came into the season knowing that the big forward spot was a weakness. Jeremy Sochan, once considered the long-term answer at the position, had lost Mitch Johnson’s trust late last season and as his shot never improved, he faded out of the rotation before being waived at the deadline. Harrison Barnes was doing well as a placeholder in the starting lineup, mostly by not making mistakes and hitting shots, but his jumper abandoned him and opponents were playing off him to help on Wembanyama. The patchwork solution was to start Julian Champagnie, a natural small forward, at the power forward spot. It worked, as Champagnie offered strong rebounding, more switchability, and more dangerous shooting, helping San Antonio find its best shape.
What happened in the starting lineup had some effects on Johnson’s play, but he was entrenched as the sixth man and his duties didn’t really change. What he brought to the table in terms of size and physicality, however, became more important simply because the Spurs got smaller. Against a lot of teams, it wasn’t as big of an issue, and Mitch Johnson filled out the minutes at power forward with Barnes, Keldon, and even rookie Carter Bryant at times, giving the team bodies to sop up minutes. Still, the concern remained: the Spurs didn’t have frontcourt size that they could rely on except for the Sixth Man of the Year.
Johnson has struggled all playoffs, but in past series, the Spurs could still survive
Johnson has been bad all playoffs, except for a few games. His minutes are down, his scoring efficiency fell off a cliff, as he can’t finish inside, and his rebounding is not the strength it once was. The Spurs have been fine even with his struggles, in part because Dylan Harper has had several standout performances off the bench, providing interior scoring and rebounding and being a credible outside shooting threat. Keldon’s lack of production was an issue, but it was not a killer for San Antonio, mostly because of matchups.
In past series, the Spurs faced teams that started paint-bound centers, which allowed Victor Wembanyama to have someone to guard close to the rim. Some trouble emerged when those teams went to their stretch bigs who could draw The Alien out, but San Antonio’s one-man zone helped alleviate those issues, with the drawback being occasionally poor defensive rebounding. That’s where Johnson, who is not particularly tall but is strong enough to guard big forwards and has boundless energy on the boards, would come in handy. Still, the Spurs made do until now.
The Spurs desperately need a viable big forward to match up better against the Knicks
The unique problem the Knicks present has a name: Karl-Anthony Towns. If Wembanyama guards the sharpshooting Towns, he’s away from the paint, where he’s not looked comfortable defending this series. Needless to say, that’s been a problem for San Antonio, since the best rim protector arguably in league history is largely neutralized. Other teams (and the Spurs in other opportunities) have placed their center on Josh Hart and have had a big forward who can hang with Towns on drives, guarding the big man. The Silver and Black don’t have one of those. The closest is Johnson, but he’s been so ineffective at everything that he’s become an afterthought, logging 24 total minutes in two games.
Outside of lineup versatility, not being able to rely on Johnson affects the Spurs when they have Wembanyama switching on the perimeter. When that happens, they need a big body in the paint, keeping Towns and the Knicks from getting offensive rebounds. Johnson has not been able to do that in the opportunities he’s had, but he seems like the only viable option off the bench. Bryant is too light and mistake-prone. Barnes will box out diligently, but he lacks the youthful energy and athleticism Johnson has. Expecting Keldon to solve the Towns issue would be foolish, but the Spurs need him to be solid enough on offense to be playable and hope he can at least help with rebounding and physicality.
Johnson’s leadership and energy could also help in general
Even if Johnson doesn’t help solve the serious Towns-related issues, having another bench player who can have a positive impact could really help the Spurs. At his best, Keldon is a passable shooter who gets to the rim on straight-line drives on offense. San Antonio hasn’t had huge issues putting points on the board, but another threat after kickouts and someone who will run the floor could be useful, if for no other reason than to keep others fresh. Right now, only Dylan Harper can be counted on to show up for the second unit, and that’s clearly not ideal.
Beyond the sheer production, Johnson could also have an impact on the team’s mentality. He’s a locker room leader who has a penchant for making plays that get his teammates excited. Every time he drives at a defender’s chest, finishes through contact, and screams “and-one!” or gets an offensive board over several opponents provides a mini morale boost. As the Spurs try to come back from a 2-0 deficit in the Finals, something that only five teams have done in league history, they’ll need everything their longest tenured player on the roster can offer.
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