After finishing off a sweep of the Angels last night, the Red Sox are suddenly 8-2 in their last ten contests. Not only has this nearly cut the number of games they’re below .500 in half (from 14 to 8), but it’s also left them in a significantly better place in relation to the third Wild Card, even if it doesn’t appear that way on the surface.
With a quick glance, the only headline this hot stretch lends is Boston cutting the number of games they trail the third Wild Card by two, from six behind to four behind. But in terms of traffic? They’re in a whole different world. For more on that crucial detail, let’s take a look at the standings at the end of play on June 24th (just before the aforementioned ten game stretch began):
When the Red Sox left Colorado after that mortifying series loss to the Rockies, they not only had the worst record in the American League and trailed a Wild Card spot by six games, but they also trailed teams not holding a playoff spot like the Astros, A’s, and Rangers by five games each. This is why I’ve included that final column on the right side of the table: It puts into context how the Red Sox aren’t just chasing the Blue Jays; they’re chasing an entire pack of tightly bunched teams.
More specifically, we can add up all the cumulative games they trail the third Wild Card spot by at any given moment. For instance, on that June 24th snapshot, if you add up all the games the Red Sox trailed, there were a cumulative 30.5 games between them and a playoff spot.
So the obvious question becomes, “how does that compare to now?” Well, let’s take a look at the current Wild Card standings using the same format:
Game changer! Despite that top number not dropping all the much, the cumulative games the Sox trail the third Wild Card by has plunged from 30.5 to 11. In other words, in terms of distance they trail, they’ve only made up a third of the ground they need to cover in relation to the third Wild Card. But in terms of density and traffic? This 8-2 stretch knocked out about two thirds of the task at hand.
If this were a NASCAR race, they’ve gone from nearly losing the lead draft to being right in the middle of the big, gnarly pack. They still have plenty of work to do and more cars to pass, but they’re solidly in the race for the first time all summer. (Also, if you believe in run differential, they probably have a better engine under the hood than anybody around them as they’re the only team in the first seven spots on that board sporting a positive run differential.)
Oh, and it actually gets even better when you look above the teams listed in the standings I posted here. Both the Mariners and the Guardian are only 1.5 games ahead of the Rangers, and the White Sox are just a game above that. In other words, there’s additional teams that can stumble and fall back into the pack even if the Rangers, Astros or Twins go on a hot streak and threaten to pull away. A few weeks ago, the traffic was nestled just below the line. But now? The traffic is more concentrated just above the line — A subtle, but extremely important change.
With the Mariners leading the AL West at 47-44 and the White Sox leading the AL Central at 47-42, there’s a pretty hard lid on the ceiling of each of those divisions. This works almost as an insurance policy to prevent the likelihood of the third Wild Card rising much above .500 all year. In order for that to happen, two teams from the same division would need to vastly outperform expectations between now and the finish line, and if you’ve watched as much late night American League baseball as I have this season, the thought of that should provide a nice chuckle. (As a collective group, these teams suck!)
For this reason, FanGraphs still projects the third AL Wild Card to come in at a historically disgraceful 80-82. Personally, I think it lands a couple of games above that with things being rearranged at the trade deadline and somebody breaking out a little bit, but overall, something drastic would need to happen to move the target in a significant way.
This is all a long way of saying that despite Boston’s horrific play for most of the season, a playoff spot is still right there if they get some guys back after the All-Star break and go on another small hot streak. Personally, I find it absurd MLB has lowered the bar this much and needs to address the issue in the upcoming CBA (add it to the list), but it’s the reality we’re looking at now.
Finally, I have one last thought rolling around in my head before we wrap this up: The next six games before the All-Star break might be Boston’s most vulnerable window. With the Contreras suspension looming, Connelly Early and Ranger Suarez banged up, and the continued lack of timelines for Roman Anthony and Garrett Crochet, they could get themselves in real trouble over the next few days and erase much of the progress they’ve made. However, if they grind things out and get into the break with say a mere 3-3 record from here, then all of a sudden they have time to regroup before they resume play on July 17th. If they’re still sitting just four games out of a playoff spot with a bunch of timelines on the table to get guys back, things could get interesting in a hurry!
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