The latest SB Nation reacts poll response warmed my heart. It shows a wisdom that sometimes eludes fans.
Admittedly, the poll question is asking for a prediction rather than an opinion, but most people tend to conflate the two; because, “Do you think the Giants should sign Bryce Eldridge to an extension this year?” means something radically different.
You can bet that respondents considered the Giants’ history in engaging in such behavior along with the upcoming lockout that has been planned by the owners since (probably) signing the last CBA. And then there’s the simple matter of whether or not an extension is warranted at this time.
Yes, this year is sort of an outlier in the frequency with which teams have extended their pre-arbitration players or even players before they’ve made their MLB debut — some other recent examples: the Brewers with Luis Lara, Cooper Pratt, and Jackson Chourio; the Mariners with Colt Emerson, the Tigers with Colt Keith, etc. — because it’s also not as though there is talented that has necessarily warranted such financial commitments.
With Eldridge, we’re talking about a slugging first baseman/designated hitter, the sort of hitter that is far more common than the ones who’ve been getting extended lately. No, Eldridge isn’t likely to be demoted anytime soon, and a 21-year old slashing .259/.359/.459 in 256 plate appearances is impressive enough, but his importance to the Giants is simply in having an impact hitter come up through their farm system and provide “surplus value” (performance vs. pay). He’s not (yet) hitting like 21-year old Juan Soto (.351/.490/.695) — which, yeah, by the time he does start hitting like that he’ll be less likely to want to sign an extension.
Thing is, Eldridge’s ceiling is unclear. Again, he’s a revelation for the Giants. He’s the type of hitter the Giants have been searching for and he’s likely to be a significant figure going forward, but is he a generational talent within the context of the sport itself? It’s really tough to compare him to these recent extensions and not come off like a critique to the point of insult. Let’s see if we can find a pattern here:
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JJ Wetherholt, Cardinals: 8 years, $112.5 million — shortstop
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Cooper Pratt, Brewers: 8 years, $50.75 million — shortstop
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Colt Emerson, Mariners: 8 years, $95 million — shortstop (and some third base)
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Konnor Griffin, Pirates: 9 years, $140 million — shortstop
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Kevin McGonigle, Tigers: 8 years, $150 million — shortstop (and third base)
So, that should be definitive. There’s a very good reason why front offices opened up the pocket book. These up the middle defenders with above average hit and power tools are extremely valuable.
I can only think of a few recent extensions for non-shortstops, and while they don’t reflect the opposite end of the spectrum, they do present as cases that would give Zack & Buster pause.
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Jackson Chourio, Brewers: 8 years, $82 million — outfield
Butler was 23 when he signed his deal and coming off of .262/.317/.490 in 451 plate appearances with some fantastic defense in right field. The Athletics were probably motivated more by their financial restraints than by “look at this generational talent blossoming before us,” but that’s more or less where Bryce Eldridge falls on the player performance scale. Butler was sub-average last year and one of the worst players in the sport this year (age-25).
Chourio has been good. Around 20% better than the league average as a hitter and a good defender in a corner outfield position. Another not-generational talent, but who is playing well enough that the Brewers have locked in a quality contributor for below the market rates for similar performance.
Acuna Jr. was on a Hall of Fame track as recently as 2023, but in the years since the extension, he’s been injured a lot and his power has diminished quite a lot. In his first 4 seasons, ages 20-23: a .268 ISO or .549 slug. In the subsequent 5 seasons, ages 24-28: a .200 ISO or .492 slug.
Yes, Atlanta is absolutely doing that deal 12 times out of 10, but would 2019 Alex Anthopoulos consider a similar deal for 2026 Bryce Eldridge? Probably not.
Finally, there’s this example that the Giants are probably thinking about, if they even pondered an Eldridge extension at all:
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Jonathan Singleton, Astros: 5 years, $10 million (with club options that could increase it to $35 million) — first baseman
That’s about $49 million in today’s dollars through simple dollar inflation, but it doesn’t factor in MLB’s market inflation over the past 12 years. Still, you can imagine senior advisor Bobby Evans remembering that 2014 deal and relaying to Posey the massive negative reaction it got from Evans & Sabean & then-Giants ownership at the time. Eldridge and Singleton’s profiles aren’t remotely comparable beyond left-handed hitting first baseman, but Singleton was more of an on base guy with doubles power. Still, because a bunch of oldheads are advising the Giants, I’m sure the fact that he hit just .171/.290/.331 in the first two seasons of the deal before the Astros moved on from him is a data point in the cost-benefit analysis.
And I think Giants fans know their organization enough to recognize that they’re less likely to take financial risks on younger players — for better or worse — so, that might be some of the wisdom behind the response here. But after the season? I wonder if the question was interpreted as “in-season” versus “off-season.” How many fans might wager on a November extension?
My personal opinion is that they should’ve signed him to an extension if he’d hit 20 home runs by now. But it was pretty clear to me early on that he was going to need at least this season to figure out major league pitching. So, given that, he looks like he’s on a pretty typical career trajectory, and for a tall power hitter who will either play first base or DH, the long-term value of a player like that is tricky to calculate and the team is better off going year to year to see if he can hit his way into forcing them to make a big commitment. I don’t think Juan Soto’s $31 million arbitration number could be a comp just given the defensive differences, and by the time Eldridge reaches his final year of arbitration, who even knows what arbitration will look like or what $31 million means.
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