The New York Mets (14-23) travel to the desert to face the Arizona Diamondbacks (17-19) in a three-game series. While the Mets have won their last two series against bad teams, they still co-own the worst record in baseball and have a lot more work to do before convincing fans that they’re a serious baseball team.
All one needs to do is look at yesterday’s lineup and pitchers used to tell the story about why this team is in trouble. Austin Slater bating fourth? Andy Ibañez batting sixth? Craig Kimbrel coming into a tie game? Come on now.
Now part of this was clearly a result of injury and part of it was trying to maximize right-handedness against a left handed starter. But a lineup that included Slater, Ibañez, Tyrone Taylor, and Vidal Brujan is a March 7 spring training lineup, not a May 7 lineup. It is much easier said than done to improve a team in the first seven weeks of a season, but part of the frustration that Mets fans feel is due to the fact that nothing has really been done to address the team’s struggles.
This is not a call to fire Carlos Mendoza, but rather a plea to do anything to shake things up a little bit. Until that happens, there is very little that will convince fans that the organization is taking the situation as seriously as it should.
That said? If the Mets can keep winning series, all of this will be moot. And while beating the Angels and Rockies shouldn’t be lauded too loudly, it is better than the alternative. The Mets will face the Yankees in one week, and that is easily the best team in their upcoming schedule, so it is imperative that they hold their own against Arizona, the Tigers, the Nationals, and the Marlins in the next few weeks. There’s every chance that the Mets are near .500 by the end of the month if they can rattle off some wins, and then this is a very different conversation on June 8.
Fortunately for the Mets, the Diamondbacks have hit a skid after a hot-streak in early to mid-April. Losers of 11 of their last 17, the Snakes have won just one of their last six series. The Mets are also getting the D-backs’ two worst starters (but also their best) and the Mets are throwing their two best pitchers (and an unknown) in the series. This seems like a series that is very winnable for the Mets, and would be a nice way to wrap up this road trip.
Standing in their way are Corbin Carroll and Ildemaro Vargas, both of whom are off to hot starts, as well as the always dangerous Ketel Marte, who is off to a slow one. When the D-backs have won lately, it has been by large margins (9-0 against he Pirates, 12-7 over the Padres, 11-7 over the White Sox), but those days seem few and far between.
McLean (2026): 39.1 IP, 51 K, 11 BB, 2 HR, 2.50 ERA, 2.12 FIP, 75 ERA-
The Mets have only won one of McLean’s seven starts thus far, but none of that is McLean’s fault. Two of those losses have come in extra-innings affairs, and in five of his seven starts, he’s given up two or fewer earned runs. McLean is more than just holding his own in the rotation, much like a young Jacob deGrom did with minimal run support.
Nelson (2026): 31.1 IP, 28 K, 15 BB, 6 HR, 6.61 ERA, 5.50 FIP, 159 ERA-
Nelson had an all-time bad start against the Blue Jays on April 19th, lasting just one-third of an inning but giving up a staggering eight earns runs on eight hits. His next start went longer, but yielded six earned runs. He settled down agains the Cubs last week, but he has had a rough go as of late.
Holmes (2026): 42.2 IP, 31 K, 14 BB, 3 HR, 1.69 ERA, 3.65 FIP, 42 ERA-
I don’t think anyone expecting Holmes to be this good a year plus into his transition to starting, but the results speak for themselves. He’s pitched into the sixth in all but one start and into the seventh in three starts. In his last two starts, he’s given up just one earned run and seven hits over 12 and tw0-thirds innings.
Kelly (2026): 19.0 IP, 14 K, 15 BB, 6 HR, 9.95 ERA, 8.14 FIP, 240 ERA-
Kelly’s first start of the year came in April 14, and he had a good one: five and a third innings pitched, two earned runs, three strikeouts. But since then, it’s been real bad. Each start has seen at least five earned runs, no more than five innings pitched, and he’s walked as many batters as he’s struck out.
Rodriguez (2026): 39.2.0 IP, 29 K, 19 BB, 4 HR, 2.50 ERA, 4.42 FIP, 60 ERA-
Rodriguez is having the best start of any Diamondback to the season, and he just had his best start of the year against the Pirates where he pitched seven innings of two-hit, shutout baseball. He’s waking more folks than he should, but so far he’s limiting the damage by not allowing many hits and limiting home runs, aside from one game when the White Sox took him deep twice.
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