So many things have gone wrong with the Detroit Tigers already this season that it’s hard to know where to even start unpacking it all. After a third straight loss to the Cleveland Guardians on Wednesday, they hold a 20-30 record, 10 games under .500. In all of baseball history, only one team in the modern era has been that deep underwater in mid-June and still made the postseason, and that sets the parameters here. They are out of time to pick themselves up off the mat and start closing the gap or the season is over. If they lose a few more series in late May and early June, it’s already time to hang a for sale sign out front. Some might argue we’re already there.
The only team to pull off such a comeback outside of the dead ball era was the 2022 Seattle Mariners. They were 10 games under .500 on June 19 of that year and pulled it together enough to win a Wild Card berth. That’s it. Of course, the Wild Card is still a relatively new invention, but still only one team has taken advantage of it from that far behind in mid-June. So the Tigers have to be a lot closer to .500 by mid-June to even maintain the faintest shred of hope.
Certainly the incredible amount of injuries have been a factor, but it’s also important to remember that the team was quite healthy until late April and they weren’t exactly piling up the wins then either. Part of the reason they’re in this shape is that they didn’t build themselves any cushion by playing .500 ball when they had their roster almost exactly as planned on Opening Day. The bullpen cost them several games when the offense was stronger, and the pitching staff has actually held up decently through this 2-8 losing stretch while the offense and defense have been atrocious. Despite some good news on the injury front, and the host of players the Tigers should get back over the next few weeks, they’re already uncomfortably close to losing any realistic chance of even a wild card run. It’s strange to say in mid-May, but the season is already hanging by a thread.
The pitching is no longer the problem. Troy Melton looks good and is due to return soon. Tarik Skubal’s rehab is proceeding at breakneck speed. The problem is that the team has only a couple of good hitters with Spencer Torkelson and Kerry Carpenter basically non-factors this season. And, instead of the group of roughly average platoon players that filled out the lineup last year, half the lineup is shot full of holes leaving opponents with only a couple of hitters to even concern themselves with. Add to that a defensive group that has been downright atrocious without Parker Meadows, Javier Báez, or even their primary utility option in Toledo, CF/SS Trei Cruz, to shore up the middle of the field, and there are just way too many weak points in the position player group right now to turn things around signficantly.
There’s no one coming to rescue the Tigers the offense for at least another week or two. Unfortunately this leaves the responsibility for turning things around on a lot of guys the Tigers shouldn’t be depending on too much in the first place.
Wenceel Pérez is supposed to be the Tigers first depth outfielder in the minor leagues. He’s posted league average run production number for two straight seasons, though he remains too mistake prone to love him in the outfield on a regular basis. But more to the point, he isn’t doing anything at the plate hitting left-handed. Inexplicably, his contact has just fallen apart, and so despite the lowest strikeout rate on the team, he’s not hitting enough line drives and hard fly balls and grounders to stay above the Mendoza line, let alone showing off the average home run power we saw from him last season.
Zach McKinstry is now 31 years old and a career utility player. Hopefully few bought into his outstanding 2025 season at this point in his career, but the Tigers could really use just mediocre production from him to help lengthen their extremely short lineup. Instead he’s approaching 100 plate appearances this season and holds a 32 wRC+ this year. He’s also dealt with tearing a muscle off his pelvic bone, which he probably returned from as soon as possible.
Matt Vierling will be 30 in a few months, and like McKinstry is a journeyman utility outfielder who is probably just past his already modest prime. After a brief run as a quality platoon player in 2024, he tore up his shoulder and missed most of 2025. His defense in center field has been acceptable, and he does hold an 88 wRC+ so he hasn’t been atrocious, but he’s not making much impact anywhere either.
Finally, Jake Rogers has been a terrible hitter for years now. You can get away with having a good defensive catcher who doesn’t hit, but that requires that the rest of the roster be pretty solid. The Tigers have also had opportunities to upgrade and decided to keep the status quo, perhaps because Rogers is the closest thing to a clubhouse leader the team seems to have beyond Tarik Skubal. Now you have Dillon Dingler catching most days, and DH-ing on a lot of his off days, which is only going to hurt his long-term effectiveness this season.
Of course, McKinstry, Vierling, Jahmai Jones, Rogers, these are all pretty fungible role players in the first place. There is just too much being asked of them right now, and it isn’t their fault the Tigers are in this shape.
If there’s one player who was supposed to be capable of helping carry the offense, it’s Spencer Torkelson. Below average offensive production from a first baseman is just unacceptable. A year after putting together his first fairly consistent season of getting on base and hitting for power, Torkelson is doing little of either on pace for 23 home runs with a .309 on-base and a strikeout rate of 33.5 percent.
Beyond that you have Lee, Gage Workman, Zack Short…these aren’t guys who are capable of giving you anything like average production. I like Hao-Yu Lee, but he just needs more time to work on his game. You see the flashes of what he can do and it’s well worth sticking with him for a year or two to see if he can take the next step. Workman is a perfectly fine Triple-A utility player with strong enough secondary tools to help in a pinch, but he’s not expected to work out playing regularly. Finally, Zack Short brings something close to an average glove at shortstop, but has never hit at the major league level. These guys get zero blame in my book.
So, we know what is happening, and generally why, but who gets the blame will be the question for much of the rest of the season. The obvious, and accurate answer is the injuries, as the Tigers have had more than anyone, and that will be the case president of baseball operations Scott Harris, and GM Jeff Greenberg are pleading with ownership should no miraculous recovery of the season come to pass. But growing criticism of Harris’ inability to add talent other than potentially through the draft is entirely justified. It’s hard to have any confidence in his ability to sell off the Tigers assets for young talent with his track record if it comes to that point.
Of course, baseball is also just a weird game. Just as current Tigers’ examples, Rlley Greene is on pace for a 6 WAR season and somehow has only four home runs on May 21. Wenceel Pérez has a 13.9 percent strikeout rate and a .168 batting average. That’s almost impressively weird. Hopefully you know that ERA means squat for relievers, particularly prior to the All-Star break, but Kyle Finnegan has walked more batters than he’s struck out and has a 1.66 ERA.
There are a lot of teams woefully underperforming in the American League alone, and they don’t have the Tigers’ injury excuses. Many good national analysts thought very highly of the 22-27 Boston Red Sox. The Seattle Mariners were arguably the best team in baseball in the second half of last year and made a pretty good run at the ALCS last year and they’re 23-27 with Cal Raleigh hitting .161/.243/.317 with seven home runs after hitting 60 last year. The Royals were a popular choice to push the Tigers and Guardians atop of the AL Central this season, and they’re 20-30 as well, sitting with the Tigers in the cellar despite no particular injury trouble other than their ace Cole Ragans missing two starts and woefully underperforming.
Still the facts are the facts. You can already make a case that the Tigers should be shopping a pitcher like Casey Mize for young pitching talent. If they happen to fall a few more games below .500? It’s time to sell anyone who isn’t tied down long-term and is performing well immediately, and keep that attitude all season long. Frankly, I will be very surprised if either Scott Harris or AJ Hinch are fired.
Even more frankly, the best thing for this franchise is probably to fall a few more games back into June and really have no choice but to sell. That’s the nature of the spot they’ve put themselves in so far this season. It will already take a heck of a run to get that back into serious contention by mid-July. There are 97 games total games this season until the All-Star break. They’ve played 50 already. Can the Tigers go from 20-30 now to 54-43 and get a game over .500 by that point?
Because injuries have been a signficant problem, and just by the weird nature of baseball, it wouldn’t be that surprising if the Tigers played much better baseball from June through September. It just isn’t going to help them if they slip much further back over the next 2-3 weeks, and it may not help them anyway. Even so, should the Tigers sell a few pieces and admit defeat, and then get healthier in a few spots and play decent baseball the rest of the year? The case that this is really just a cursed year with injuries and there is nothing to be done about it is going to be a pretty easy one to make for the front office and for AJ Hinch and his coaching staff.
So not to be melodramatic, but the Tigers season is right on the brink of disaster here. Troy Melton, Gleyber Torres, Javy Báez, Kerry Carpenter, Tarik Skubal…getting those players back will certainly change the equation, but until that happens in full, they’re going to remain under siege and on the brink of collapse. And there’s a good argument that would be the best thing for the franchise. It’s a tough pill to swallow, but there it is. Get swept by the Guardians today? Lose two of three series in Baltimore, versus the Angels at home, or on the south side against the plucky young White Sox? The math surrenders to faith as justification alone.
Let’s say they split their next 12 games. The Tigers will be 26-36. Can they go 60-40 the rest of the way to get to 86 wins and have a quality shot at a wild card? Winning 60 percent of 100 games isn’t out of the question if healthy perhaps, but it’s certainly a longshot as things stand. Right now, just playing .500 ball for a few weeks might earn them some time to find out if getting some players back turns things around. But iff they can’t at least split these next 12 games? Forget about it. No one is coming to the rescue. The guys on this roster right now have to get off the mat for a few weeks and earn the right to find out if getting healhier will make a difference.
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