After three straight years, it’s becoming a norm for a UConn player to be picked in the first round of the NBA Draft. The only other schools with that distinction in the last three years? Duke and Baylor, a couple of five-star daycares with questionable methods.
I still remember the delight of hearing James Bouknight’s name called.
But for the streak to continue, they’ll need teams to fall in love with Tarris Reed Jr or Alex Karaban. Both have been projected as fringe first-rounders, but as we saw with Liam McNeeley last year, draft night comes with a lot of uncertainty.
Since NBA front offices are obviously reading The UConn Blog Dot Com, here is my sales pitch for Reed. You can read Karaban’s here. Maybe this can push them solidly into the first round.
It Pays to Be Big
I found five comparisons based on combine measurements and play style, three from the current generation and two slightly older ones. Combined, they all reflect a sort of best-case, best-floor comparison.
Pace and space is still a thing in the NBA, but some are bucking the trend. Jumbo lineups — like what Michigan did to UConn in the title game — are starting to enter the picture. If you’re trying to stay ahead of the jumbo curve, may I interest you in a 6 ’10 (barefoot), 260 lb. center with ballerina feet, a 7′ 5 ” wingspan, and feathery touch around the rim?
What if he has above-average passing skills, exceptional switchability, and shot mechanics that indicate potential shooting range later in his career?
With the first comparison, let’s aim high.
The Detroit Pistons were the no. 1 seed in the East in part due to Jalen Duren’s emergence as a space-eating low-post anchor with two-way athleticism.
That’s the almost unrealistic, peak comparison for Reed Jr. out there right now; he comes into the league and picks up right where he left off in April. His rebounding translates, his defense continues to tighten up, the motor is revving, and he shows he can score over NBA size consistently. That’s a lot of “ifs” but that’s also Jalen Duren-lite.
Duren was a one-and-done at Memphis, and came in with more of a pedigree after reclassing into the 2022 recruiting class as the no. 1 player overall. He was 18 years old when drafted, a mammoth project with unlimited tools.
Reed’s path was a little longer, featuring a change of scenery and a little senioritis needed to unlock the full potential. After an inconsistent run as a Husky, something clicked for him this past March. All that enticing potential was realized and the staff’s vision was fulfilled.
It doesn’t matter when the light comes on, as long as they turn on.
Here are the combine measurements for comparison:
Tarris Reed Jr
Height (Barefoot): 6’9.75”
Weight: 263.6 lbs
Wingspan: 7’4.25”
Standing Reach: 9’2”
Standing Vertical: 29.5”
Jalen Duren
Height (without shoes): 6’9.5″
Weight: 250 lbs
Wingspan: 7’5″
Standing Reach: 9’1″
Standing Vertical: 37”
Duren’s age and explosiveness make him even more of a freak than Reed Jr, but that’s why he was the 13th overall pick in the 2022 NBA Draft. He was a baby then, and is Tarris’ age now. Duren improved his statistical profile in his first four years, averaging 19.7 ppg and 10.5 rpg last year, earning his first All-Star berth, third-team All-NBA, and defensive player of the year votes.
A team taking Reed isn’t automatically getting the next Jalen Duren. But maybe they’re getting a more NBA-ready, albeit less athletic Jalen Duren. Less ceiling, more polish. Backup big men don’t just fall out of the sky.
Duren is the pie in the sky. Back on earth, can I interest you in a Day’Ron Sharpe comparison?
Sharpe opted out of the combine measurements back in 2021, but the Nets list him at 6 ’10 265, pretty close to Tarris’ measurements. Sharpe was a one-and-done out of North Carolina that fell to Phoenix at pick 29, and promptly traded to the Brooklyn Nets on draft day. He’s been there as a reserve big man, averaging 7 ppg and 6 rpg in 15.5 mpg.
The way Sharpe seals and uses his body is very reminiscent of Reed, except the latter’s post moves are more polished because he’s older. This is probably what scouts see, with Reed’s upside coming from his bullish trajectory and potential to expand his game.
Former Georgetown Hoya Thomas Sorber is another match.
Thomas Sorber
Height: 6’9.25″
Weight: 262.8 lbs
Wingspan: 7’6.00″
Standing Reach: 9’1.00″
Vertical: 42 inches
Reed is taller, but Sorber is younger and more explosive. He put up nine points and 10 rebounds against UConn in 2025, a game in which Reed played 12 minutes and scored three points.
Sorber tore his ACL in September and never saw the court for Oklahoma City, but if you watched the Spurs take down the Thunder last month, you know his skillset is sorely needed.
Now for the throwbacks. Walk with me down memory lane, fellow millennials.
Al Jefferson
Height (without shoes): 6’8.25”
Weight: 289 lbs
Wingspan: 7’2.5”
Standing Reach: 9’2”
Big Al came into the league smaller but heavier than Reed. Before the one-and-done era, he was a highly-ranked prospect in high school (noticing the trend?). Big Al and Tarris have the below-the-rim post game with an array of moves in their bag.
Pace-and-space left Big Al behind, but look at some of this footwork.
Awfully reminiscent of Reed this past March, except Reed has flashed the mobility to adapt to today’s game. Big Al played 14 years in the league and finished with career averages of 15.7 ppg and 8.4 rpg. He averaged 23 and 11 in 2008-2009 for the Timberwolves, and was third-team All-NBA in 2013-2014.
I also saw some Derrick Favors comparisons floating around out there on the internet.
Here are his measurements from the 2010 combine:
Derrick Favors
Height: 6’8.75”
Weight: 245.2 lbs
Wingspan: 7’4”
Standing Reach: 9’2”
Standing Vertical: 31.5 inches
Similar to Duren, Sharpe, Sorber, and Jefferson, Favors was a blue-chip, one-and-done freakazoid prospect. Except he never really ascended to Duren’s heights, or Jefferson’s. Favors played 12 seasons in the NBA, finishing with career averages of 10 ppg and 7 rpg. He was a solid rim-runner who protected the rim well with Rudy Gobert.
Reed is taller by an inch, but Favors was more explosive and younger coming out (the youngest player drafted by the Nets ever).
Breaking it Down
Five players with very different ceilings. Duren is a franchise cornerstone. Big Al was on his way to being one, until his knees gave out. Favors never ascended, but career earnings of $130 million (Jefferson made $137 mil) is far from a bust. Sharpe looks like he’ll carve out a reserve role for the next decade. The jury’s out on Sorber due to injury.
It sounds silly to rattle off these highly successful comparisons for a player like Reed that’s barely projected to go in the first round. As I said before, there are a lot of Ifs, and that’s why he’s a fringe first-rounder. But it’s hard to ignore the success of these players with similar physical measurements, combined with the switch that Reed flipped in March.
That’s not to say big men of his stature are automatic. In the last decade, James Wiseman Jr and Marvin Bagley had roughly similar measurements and didn’t pan out. However, when you really broke them down, the comparisons didn’t entirely add up; Reed is heavier than both and a different type of player.
Age is Just a Number
There are a lot of factors working against Tarris. His age, the potentially historic draft class, career inconsistency, and overall game trends can all be docked against him. After all these optimistic comparisons, the downsides need to be addressed.
College players at 6 ’10, 260 lbs. are usually one-and-done material. Even if they’re projects, most of the time they’ve been developed in an NBA organization, not the program. All of the comparisons above were five stars, making Reed’s Top 40 four-star ranking out of high school look pedestrian.
Reed represents a different path because he’s three years older. But let’s investigate that a little further.
First, the Juwan Howard factor. How would any of the above players have succeeded under a Howard regime? Second, the NIL landscape informs a lot of ‘stay or go ’ decisions now.
With no NIL around, maybe 15 years ago, Tarris heads to the NBA a year or two earlier with that coveted ‘raw potential’ label. Would Al Jefferson stay another year in college if a school offered more money than he’d make in the late lottery, which was where he fell? And if he somehow didn’t perform, every year in college would tank the sense of his potential, even though he eventually became a force inside.
What would Da’Ron Sharpe’s numbers look like if he stayed three more years? Would he average 19.5 ppg, 13.2 rpg, and 1.5 blocks per game in the NCAA tournament?
For a variety of reasons, Tarris took a little more time to cook. That’s okay! He’s not a senior citizen though; he’ll only be 23 next season. I understand the financial advantages a GM gets from a 19-year-old’s contract vs. a 23-year-old’s. But there are still risks.
A savvy GM should look at the March emergence and see an NBA-ready guy. Given how suddenly he flipped the switch, maybe there’s still more left to unlock.
His measurements have a pretty good track record at the next level. There are more success stories for guys with Tarris’ combination of size and skill out there than cautionary tales. The college game is more like the G-League than ever before, so age shouldn’t be as big a knock on a player’s draft stock. This applies to Karaban as well, who surely would have gone to the NBA earlier without the benefits of NIL.
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