In baseball, rarely does everything unfold as expected. The unpredictability of baseball is one of its gifts as well as one of its most confounding aspects. The Seattle Mariners were widely believed to be the cream of the AL West crop, projected to win well over 90 games. Who thought they would sit 4 games under .500 and that Cal Raleigh, on Memorial Day, would be on the IL sitting on 1/3 of a season batting .161/.243/.317 with 7 HR?
Projection system were not in love with the A’s rotation, ranking it near the bottom going into the season. Here’s how it is shaping up as we fast approach the 1/3 mark — significant because it’s traditionally when front offices take a hard look at their team and make changes if need be.
Health: Let’s not overlook, with relief, how the A’s starting pitchers have stayed healthy. They opened the season with Luis Severino, Jeffrey Springs, Aaron Civale, Jacob Lopez, and Luis Morales and none has had to miss a turn, or go to the IL. Morales was replaced by JT Ginn who, despite a brief scare, was able to make his next start and is only getting better.
Now onto performance…
Luis Severino
In a way, Severino has been about as expected: flashing plus stuff, very inconsistent, high pitch/inning counts and high walk totals, prone to giving up runs in flurries, sometimes brilliant.
The A’s may have paid for a front of the rotation SP but what they have is also valuable, just not as valuable, and that is a #4 SP whose 4.45 ERA approximates how he has performed.
Expectations going forward: Probably more of the same as this has been Severino much of his career since his hey days of 2017 and 2018.
Jeffrey Springs
Springs started like gangbusters, hit a rough patch, and then gave the A’s an excellent start against the Giants his last time out. Overall he has pitched like he did in 2025: terrific on the road, less so at home. Springs’ away ERA this season is 3.04 whereas at home, where he has given up 6 of his 8 HRs, it balloons to 4.60.
Expectations going forward: Springs will generally give you a chance to win, but will also require a fair amount of bullpen support as he averages between 5-6 innings/start. Like Severino, Springs is a luxury to have as your #4 SP — and you are pushing your luck to ask him to be more.
He’s also a good one to push back a day if it means starting a road trip instead of finishing a home stand — though unfortunately, Severino’s and Ginn’s struggles at home make it hard to do any clever manipulating.
Aaron Civale
Civale has been great. Using a wide variety of pitches and mixing them up to keep hitters off balance, he has been everything the A’s could have asked for and more. Civale’s 2.70 ERA would rank 7th in the AL if he had enough innings to qualify (he barely misses but will qualify after tonight’s start assuming he lasts at least 2.1 IP).
However, Civale’s success does come with a caveat: all the underlying metrics suggest he is due for a big regression. His xERA is 4.38, his xFIP 4.66, his K rate just 6.75/9 IP. Civale needs to be very fine with his location and he has mostly been so far. He has also been unsustainably terrific with runners on base, stranding 90.3%, far above his career rate of 74.5%.
Expectations going forward: Take nothing away from what Civale has done, but you have to expect some rougher times ahead just naturally from a pitcher whose results so far have greatly exceeded the predicted outcomes.
Jacob Lopez
Ruh roh. What to do with Lopez. Has he pitched his way out of the rotation after failing to complete the 4th inning when staked to a 6-0 lead? As good as Lopez was in 2025 he has been bad in 2026.
The stats which pop out, besides his unsightly 6.14 ERA, are 30 BB in 44 IP and a K rate that has plummeted from 10.97 last season 6.55 this season. Lopez is a mess and while he was given more rope than Morales you have to wonder if the A’s will continue to trot him out every 5th day.
Expectations going forward: With the dreaded 1/3 mark upon us, figure the A’s will shake things up in some way either moving Lopez to the bullpen, where he can compete with Jose Suarez for “lefty who scares you, not opponents, when he is summoned, or to AAA (Lopez has one remaining option). Maybe the A’s just ”stay the course” a while longer with Lopez in the rotation, but don’t count on it as he’s been über-shaky for a long stretch now.
Luis Morales
Morales was terrible in spring training, worse to start the season, and was quickly demoted to AAA — where if it’s even possible, he pitched even worse yet.
Only in his last 3 appearances (out of the bullpen) has Morales started to right the ship a bit, and it’s really more “he hasn’t been terrible”: 4 IP, 4 hits, 2 ER, 2 BB, 4 K. It has brought his AAA season ERA down to 9.72 with 24 hits in 16.2 IP, 6 of them HRs, along with 13 BB.
Expectations going forward: Morales is still in the A’s future plans, but 2026 might wind up being a “get right” season. I wouldn’t look for a call up to Sacramento any time soon.
JT Ginn
We all know what Ginn did his last start. What’s less obvious is how solid he has been in aggregate, posting a 2.97 ERA. Is it for real? It may just be.
The key is that Ginn has finally figured out how to get LH batters out. Here’s the comparison between 2025 and 2026:
LH batters in 2025: .340/.416/.630, 10 HR in 38 IP
LH batters in 2026: .233/.331/.398, 4 HR in 27.1 IP
That’s worth a “Fosse wow” right there. What hasn’t shifted as much is the huge home/away splits where Ginn, after his no-hit bid, holds a 1.67 ERA on the road but a 5.21 ERA at home.
Expectations going forward: Ginn has historically had trouble staying healthy, but if the arm holds up the A’s might have themselves a gem who has figured out how to leverage his stuff — and with that you can expect that so long as LH batters don’t pose a huge issue for him, the home performance will improve and the home/away splits will move closer to one another.
Overall: The A’s don’t have a lot of SPs who get deep into games — only Ginn has really shown that strength — and there really aren’t front of the rotation arms there unless you buy into Ginn as an emerging staff leader. It’s kind of a “5.1 IP, 2 or 3 ER” group waiting for the arrival of an exciting young arm attached to Gage Jump or Wei-En Lin.
What would you like to see the A’s do, at the 1/3 mark, with this rotation, given who they have in MLB, who they have at AAA, and what the trade market looks like as we head towards trading season? No easy answers here, just an AL West that currently would require only 81 wins to get fitted for a crown.
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