The Stanley Cup Playoffs keep featuring more twists and turns with one constant. Florida controlled Game 5 and scored five goals on the road. The 5-2 win puts the Panthers one victory away from repeating as Stanley Cup Champions. Can the Edmonton Oilers force a Game 7 back in Edmonton or does the “Cup” get awarded tonight?
Below, we look at some of our favorite Stanley Cup Final picks for Game 6. There are NHL betting bonuses available on BetMGM, FanDuel and Caesars
Plenty of Scoring for the Panthers & Oilers
Some pundits said Edmonton would be the more dangerous offense in this series. That has not quite panned out. Brad Marchand has six goals. Sam Bennett and Sam Reinhart keep scoring and often in the same game. Furthermore, Florida has scored at least three goals in every game this series while Edmonton has been held to two or fewer goals twice.
Do the Oilers show the urgency here? It seems every time Florida is about to close the door, Edmonton cracks it open.
Edmonton has scored 4+ goals in three games, and Florida has done this four times. Who starts in goal for the Oilers? Does it matter? Florida played its low shot, low chance tempo game, and clogged lanes all night in Game 5. Can the Panthers do it one more time in Game 6?
Again, at even strength, Florida showed its mettle. The expected goals at 5-on-5 were complete domination by the Panthers at 1.96 to 0.94. Actual goals were 4-1 in favor of Florida. The Panthers had nine of the 12 high danger scoring chances at even strength too. Even score effects in the final 20 minutes had no true impact.
Can Edmonton keep Game 6 close? It boils down to better execution in the lanes and getting shots on the net.
This is a real coin flip given Florida’s tendency to not quite finish out a series. See Toronto as a prime example. Bettors see the game total teetering around Even and the Florida moneyline hovering around -150 almost begging for pivots.
If one wants to shoot for a Game 7, Edmonton stealing the game in regulation has lengthened to +200.
Stanley Cup Final Pick: Game Total Over 6.5 Goals (Even via BetMGM)
Do We See a Conn Smythe Trophy Winner on Tuesday?
After five games, here is the latest.
- Edmonton was a -120 favorite to win the series. Florida was around +100.
- Game 2 featured Edmonton at -210 to win the series, with Florida a +180 underdog.
- Florida was around -120 going into Game 3, while Edmonton was +100 on some sportsbooks.
- Game 4 held Florida at -260, and Edmonton was a +215 underdog.
- Game 5 had Edmonton in the -110 to -115 range, with Florida hovering between -105 and -110.
- Game 6 is back to the heavy Florida tilt at a whopping -350. A win ends it, but a Game 7 puts this much closer to even again.
Game 6 is in the humidity and funky bounces of Amerant Bank Arena. Temperatures in the 80’s to near 90 with high moisture do not create the ideal skating surface. Dehumidifiers can only do so much.
Can the two Sam’s score again? That is one question. Can Evan Bouchard pile up the shots? Bouchard has cooled off in the past two games. Some trends have gone south.
Here is the counter-question: If Marchand holds on to the goal lead, does he win the Conn Smythe? Bennett has five goals and six points. It is a fun counter, especially if Marchand gets a third game-winning goal on Thursday night.
NBA Finals Series Pick: Marchand to win the Conn Smythe (+410 via FanDuel
Last Stanley Cup Final Pick for Game 6
The season is not over yet. However, the futures for 2025-26 are already out. Florida and Edmonton are not the favorites (both +750 at FanDuel). Carolina is instead (+700). Every sportsbook is different.
Currently, both teams’ scoring in the first period is now +155 via Caesars. The game may settle down but expect lots of nervous energy early.
Last Call: Both Teams to Score in the First Period (+155 via Caesars
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