Spurs vs. Thunder. Wemby vs. SGA. Game 7. Of course.
The thrilling Western Conference finals between San Antonio and Oklahoma City, featuring two of the game’s brightest stars, will be decided on Saturday (8 p.m. ET, NBC/Peacock) with one team advancing to the 2026 NBA Finals, where the New York Knicks await.
Will Victor Wembanyama meet the moment in his first-ever Game 7? Will two-time MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander lead OKC to back-to-back Finals? Our writers weigh in with their Game 7 predictions.
What’s your take on Spurs-Thunder ahead of Game 7?
Steve Jones: This is one of the most tremendous back-and-forth playoff series we have seen in a while. If you point to the blowout nature of the games, you forget how these teams got here. This has been a series of runs, with each team working to swing back until the other beats it into submission. No one has grabbed control of this series. Will Victor Wembanyama be assertive? Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander make the shots that affect the Spurs’ defense? Will the OKC bench rise to the occasion? Will the Spurs guards hold up their end of the bargain on both ends? Will Chet Holmgren put his stamp on this series? There’s a tension, a feel that anything could happen. And now we get to see that in the ultimate setting.
Ben Rohrbach: We are watching the future of the league. Gilgeous-Alexander’s Thunder are vying for the first back-to-back championships in almost a decade, and Wembanyama’s Spurs, if they were to win the whole thing, might have a stranglehold on the NBA for some time. Given the youth and depth of both rosters, these two teams should compete for Western Conference supremacy — and titles — for another decade, or at least into the 2030s.
Dan Devine: The story of this series is how San Antonio’s point-of-attack armada, combined with Wembanyama’s perpetual back-line menace, has effectively broken OKC’s half-court offense. (Or, if not outright fractured, then at least severely sprained it.) During the regular season, the Thunder scored 102.5 points per 100 half-court plays — the third-best attack in the NBA. Through the first two rounds, they scored a scorching 110.1 points-per-100 in the half-court. Against San Antonio? A positively Wizardian 92.7 points-per-100. The Thunder have scored more than one point per possession in the half-court three times in this series, and finished below that mark three times, according to Cleaning the Glass; take a wild guess which ones were OKC wins and which were OKC losses. If Gilgeous-Alexander and Mark Daigneault can’t find a way to generate something against the Spurs’ set defense in Game 7, the Thunder’s repeat bid will likely end on Saturday night.
Kelly Iko: The Thunder are playing a dangerous game. San Antonio’s floor spacing and Oklahoma City’s compact defense have resulted in some odd results, sprinkled in with a bit of luck. Through six games, the Spurs are taking 17 “open” 3s a game (defined as shots with the nearest defender at least four feet away), and converting a measly 26.5% of them. That would have ranked third during the regular season in frequency and dead last in percentage. Both teams, through their schemes, have conceded corner 3s; the only difference is one team is shooting less than 30% on such shots, and one team is shooting 40%. Devin Vassell and Julian Champagnie, the Spurs’ two best shooters, have never shot better than 34% combined in any game. At some point, the basketball gods will even things out. That could happen in Game 7 if the Thunder aren’t careful.
What’s an underrated storyline going into Game 7?
Devine: It’s maybe worth remembering, as we understandably venerate the work that Wembanyama is putting as a 22-year-old MVP candidate and that Dylan Harper is producing as a precocious 20-year-old, that Stephon Castle — all of 21 years of age himself — is averaging more than 18 points and nearly eight assists and five rebounds per game in his first conference finals. While spending approximately 100% of his floor time as the primary point-of-attack defender on the two-time MVP, and playing a significant role in locking that man in a nightmare cage.
Oh — and since those two brutal turnover-filled games to start the series, Castle has coughed the ball up just six times in 130 minutes, with a 4.7-to-1 assist-to-turnover ratio. I think everybody understood that, if the Spurs were going to win this series, it would be because Wembanyama was the best player in it. I don’t know if anyone expected Gilgeous-Alexander to be the second-best guard in it, though … and it feels a little undersold that, through six games, there’s a real case to be made in that direction.
Iko: Regardless of the outcome, this series has laid the groundwork for what purports to be a fascinating tug-of-war in the Western Conference for at least the next five years. The Thunder will stumble into some interesting financial decisions sooner rather than later — the Spurs are still some years down the line in that regard — but these two franchises largely control their own destinies for the foreseeable future. In a close second, Dylan Harper’s stellar play surely has to spark some questions about lead guard roles heading into next season. De’Aaron Fox’s leadership and experience have been much-needed, but there’s some overlap in their skill sets and one is considerably more cost effective than the other.
Rohrbach: The beauty of Game 7 is we don’t know what the most underrated storyline will be, but one random hero will emerge. I’ve covered a few — including Kelly Olynyk’s 26 points in Game 7 of the 2017 Eastern Conference semifinals and Grant Williams’ 27 points in Game 7 of the 2022 second round — and it would’ve taken a thousand guesses to stumble on any of those predictions. Might Jared McCain, who has had two breakout performances so far in the series, be in line for another? Some Harrison Barnes Game 7 redemption? Play pick your random hero.
Jones: I will always let you know that Game 7s are weird. There’s a pressure, desire and effort that combines to make the most important game feel like an oddity. We know the superstars, but who else joins the party to change the vibe? The OKC bench has produced at a high level. The battle of Isaiah Hartenstein increasing the height on his floaters (and not missing) against Wembanyama’s lunges to contest becoming more desperate is on the table. The Spurs’ guards and wings have all showed that they are not shying away from the moment. But what does it look like if De’Aaron Fox has the game of his life? Or if Lu Dort finally starts hitting 3s? Harrison Barnes has yet to lose a Game 7 and it’s his birthday. I don’t mean to quote the great Kevin Garnett, but, truly, “anything is possible.”
Wemby or SGA: Who needs to have the bigger Game 7?
Iko: SGA.Considering the fact he has had an underwhelming series thus far (prior to Game 6, Alex Caruso was the leader in the clubhouse in net points) — and how rapidly Wembanyama and the Spurs are ascending in the West — I would presume the onus should be on the MVP to have a strong bounceback game. Prior to the season, San Antonio was projected to win around 45 games and Oklahoma City nearly 20 more. The Thunder are supposed to be here, the Spurs are clearly ahead of schedule. I also don’t think they’re subject to the “Minnesota curse”, a young, rising team getting to the conference finals before slowly regressing. Gilgeous-Alexander has talked about legacy as his game has elevated and the conversations around this franchise have centered on budding dynasty talk. Game 7 might not be a must win, but it’s pretty close.
Devine: SGA. If Big Vic doesn’t have a big Game 7, the takeaway will be that he’s almost ready to reach the mountaintop, but that he, like every other great before him, will have to experience failure and learn from it before he can do so. If Shai doesn’t, though? After a series that’s seen him almost entirely bottled up, frustrated and forced into underwhelming performances? The sharp knives — well, even sharper ones — will come out.
Jones: Wemby. He has to be assertive on the offensive end, and he has to deliver reminders of why OKC has worked so hard to move him around the board on the defensive end. When his impact is muted, the punches from the Spurs don’t land as hard. They need him to rise to the occasion in a Game 7, and if he does, it could be one of those games that land in the vaults of history. I do understand the Gilgeous-Alexander portion of the program, but we can be honest. He’s stamped. It’s not just the MVPs and the Finals run; we have seen OKC survive some rough moments from him.
Rohrbach: SGA. Given the injuries to Ajay Mitchell (calf) and Jalen Williams (hamstring), who are out for Game 7, it will be on SGA to be the driver of great offense — against a San Antonio defense that has so far had great success against him. Wemby will be great defensively, regardless, and the Spurs, in the absence of two OKC playmakers, have more ways to score, even with De’Aaron Fox limited by an ankle injury.
Which team would be the tougher matchup for the Knicks?
Rohrbach: Spurs. I’m tempted to say the Thunder, since it’s been almost four years since they lost to the Knicks, but with Mitchell and Williams hampered I think they’re beatable, even if they have the defensive pitbulls at the point of attack to harness Jalen Brunson. The Spurs can field a similarly ferocious backcourt defense, layering Wembanyama behind it, and that’s dangerous, especially when you consider Robinson could be limited by surgery to his pinky finger.
Devine: Thunder. The Knicks have beaten the Spurs twice in three tries this season, winning the NBA Cup final in December and a dominant performance at Madison Square Garden in March. Nobody has an answer for Wembanyama, as the Western finals have made clear, but I think New York’s combination of wing versatility and frontcourt size profiles better against San Antonio — though Mitchell Robinson’s broken finger looms large — than against a Thunder team that the Knicks haven’t beaten since November of 2022.
Jones: Thunder. Their defensive personnel can just poke at a lot of what the Knicks want to do. They have multiple players to throw at Brunson/Towns. They have lineups where they can switch to throw off the Knicks’ movement. Gilgeous-Alexander would likely enjoy attacking Brunson/KAT after a series of dealing with Wembanyama. The Knicks would absolutely have a shot, but the Thunder have more answers in the cupboard. As good as the Spurs’ run has been, the Knicks have the defensive personnel to keep the Spurs guards in a box and the team mindset to protect vs. Wembanyama’s scoring. Either would be hard fought, but I would trust the Knicks against the Spurs more than a Thunder team that finally got past its biggest issue.
Iko: Thunder, for the bulk of reasons that my esteemed colleagues have laid out. The Thunder simply have too many plug-and-play defensive options to interrupt the offensive groove the Knicks have been in for weeks, and certainly have enough physicality to deal with Karl-Anthony Towns as a hub with Isaiah Hartenstein and Lu Dort. Forcing New York to have to work backward, resorting to some of its old, bad offensive habits might cause the Knicks to unravel quicker than, say, dealing with a bruised, beat-up San Antonio team with smaller guards.
Spurs-Thunder, Game 7: Who’s advancing to the NBA Finals?
Rohrbach: Thunder. Considering the health of both teams, I think the Spurs might be better equipped to challenge the Knicks in the Finals, but I just trust the experience of the defending champions — and home-court advantage — in a Game 7, just a little bit more than I believe the Spurs can seize hold of the league right now. History tells us nobody at age 22 is ready to take over the NBA, so I guess I’ll wait until Wemby proves otherwise to believe it can be done.
Devine: Thunder. I picked OKC before the start of the season, again at the start of the playoffs, and again before the start of this series. I’ll stick with them to grind out a Game 7 at home; I’m stubborn like that.
Iko: Spurs. My Cavs-in-7 prediction never actually existed so, in fellow stubbornness, I’ll stick with the Spurs. Momentum has teetered back and forth with every game — and it’s been utterly thrilling — but San Antonio has figured out how to slow down SGA, and Jalen Williams, who should be the next man up, isn’t 100%.
Jones: Thunder. They have never lost a Game 7 in that building in Oklahoma City (please don’t ask me how I know, I have a suitcase full of Clippers playoff books I have yet to touch to prove it). The Spurs’ run has been great, they have all the tools to steal this one, but that city and that building tend to lift this team up to different heights. No matter the era.
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