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As the Oklahoma City Thunder and San Antonio Spurs collide in what feels like an inevitable Game 7 tonight, it’s hard to overstate the burden on Shai Gilgeous-Alexander’s shoulders.
The two-time MVP has had a subdued series by his high standards, dealing with a gauntlet of physical Spurs defenders, but his playmaking will be key here as the Thunder try to punch their ticket to the Finals.
We take a closer look at the Shai Gilgeous-Alexander odds ahead of this May 30 decider.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander prop pick for Game 7
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander best bet: Over 7.5 assists (-130 at bet365)
One of the lasting memories of this heavyweight series will be Shai Gilgeous-Alexander navigating a sea of San Antonio Spurs jerseys for every glimpse of the rim.
With injuries to Jalen Williams and Ajay Mitchell leaving the Oklahoma City Thunder desperately short of ball-handling, San Antonio has been able to sell out to force the ball out of his hands – and that makes the SGA assists tally one of the more attractive props on the board.
He’s dished 9+ dimes in all three home games in these Conference Finals, with OKC role players coming through more reliably at Paycom Center, and I expect a steady diet of Gilgeous-Alexander drives to set up 3-point looks tonight, with the potential to bet this up to 8.5 if plus odds are available.
The Spurs have consistently had a second defender lurking at the nail in those instances, but SGA has shown again in these playoffs that he trusts his teammates to knock down shots.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander same-game parlay (+480)
Ferocious perimeter defense, backed by Victor Wembanyama in the paint, has been a great formula for the Spurs, nudging Gilgeous-Alexander off his favorite spots. Even if SGA decides to call his own number more often here, I’m comfortable fading his points prop in Game 7.
After all, he’s only gone past this O/U number in one of the six contests so far in this series, and he needed 17 free throws to get there.
A hero ball effort just doesn’t feel sustainable against this San Antonio defense. Instead, the Thunder need a more balanced effort, with Gilgeous-Alexander picking his spots and putting his supporting cast in positions to make plays.
OKC would surely like to limit the wear and tear on SGA from a rebounding perspective, but this battle is for all the marbles. Shai averaged 4.3 RPG during the regular season, and his work on the boards will be especially critical when the Thunder go to lineups with just one of Chet Holmgren and Isaiah Hartenstein on the court.
Spurs vs Thunder SGP
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Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Over 7.5 assists
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Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Under 30.5 points
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Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Over 3.5 rebounds
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