With just over a week until the default Yahoo trade deadline, managers are running out of time to make substantial moves. This week’s list of players has been chosen in hopes of daring managers to look beyond recent production and sell high on those who are overachieving in hopes of cashing them out before they turn into fool’s gold during the fantasy baseball playoffs.
Sell High
Hunter Goodman, C, Rockies: Goodman is enjoying a spectacular season. He ranks third in baseball in homers and, among fantasy catchers, he trails only Yankees’ Ben Rice in R+RBI. Even Goodman’s .256 batting average is a reasonable mark, especially for someone with a 32.6% strikeout rate. Unfortunately, he has been incredibly fortunate, as is evidenced by his .236 xBA and a .480 xSLG that is 77 points lower than his actual mark.
I won’t protest against managers who want to stick with the slugger under the premise that this is simply one of those seasons in which everything clicks. But in most leagues, there are teams that recently lost catchers in Shea Langeliers, Samuel Basallo or Adley Rutschman. I would float Goodman’s name to those managers, in hopes of getting a star pitcher or a hitter with a more stable skill set.
Liam Hicks, C, Marlins: Thanks to a spectacular start to the season, Hicks remains the No. 5 catcher in fantasy. The season-long data is masking a power dropoff; since the beginning of June he has produced three homers in 39 games. Hicks’ 85.2 mph average exit velocity is a 4th-percentile mark, and until he hits the ball harder, he will struggle to produce in the power categories. His .249 xBA shows that even with his strong plate discipline, his lack of barrels will eventually impact his batting mark. Wise managers will trade him to a catcher-needy team and then use the waiver wire to find a replacement such as Ryan Jeffers.
Jake McCarthy, OF, Rockies: Although McCarthy is enjoying a career year, there are no improvements to his skill set. The outfielder continues to log an especially low average exit velocity (85.3 mph) and barrel rate (5.4%). His xBA is 35 points lower than his actual mark, and his xSLG trails his SLG by an eye-popping 105 points. McCarthy has predictably thrived at Coors Field (.925 OPS) but has been usable on the road (.738 OPS), which is something that likely won’t last. His RBI total (59) is completely out of line for a leadoff hitter and, in many leagues, he can be traded right now for a productive player with a longer track record. A regression candidate even if he remains with the Rockies, McCarthy would be even less attractive if traded by next Monday’s deadline.
Ceddanne Rafaela, 2B/OF, Red Sox: After entering the season as a career .247, Rafaela is batting .278. Unfortunately, it’s impossible to find a skill-based reason for his improvement. His strikeout rate is nearly identical to that of last season, and his average exit velocity (86.5 mph) and barrel rate (4.9%) are both lower than his career marks. Not only does Rafaela have a mediocre .242 xBA, but his .349 xSLG is 96 points lower than his actual mark. This is a great time to trade away the two-hole hitter on baseball’s hottest team.
Eduardo Rodríguez, SP, Diamondbacks: Fantasy managers are running out of time to sell high on Rodríguez, who has come back to earth this month (4.79 ERA). A sell-high offer should be easy to explain to a fellow manager, as Rodríguez has a solid win total (9), respectable WHIP (1.24) and ranks eighth in baseball with a 2.64 ERA. Heck, he was named to the NL All-Star Team earlier this month. Under the hood, we see a poor K:BB ratio (86:44) and ERA estimators that are consistently over 4.00. His skills are those of a streamer.
Buy Low
Alec Burleson, 1B/OF, Cardinals: Burleson has been the No. 9 first baseman, mostly thanks to a surprising RBI total (71) that ranks eighth in baseball. Elsewhere, he has been a balanced contributor, who has solid marks in homers (15), runs (57) and batting average (.285). Few managers will realize that the 27-year-old has more upside, as the gap between his homer total and xHR total is -6.1, which is by far the largest mark of any player. Burleson could be even more dominant by getting average fortune on his fly balls down the stretch.
Corey Seager, SS, Rangers: One of this season’s biggest busts, Seager should be easy to acquire. After all, the shortstop is currently on the injured list and has produced a .182 average and .677 OPS over his 51 games played. It’s shocking to see such poor play from someone who had logged an OPS of .860 or better in four of the previous five seasons. The good news is that Seager has some of the largest gaps in baseball between his batting average and his .226 xBA, and between his .374 SLG and .446 xSLG. And, he started a rehab assignment on Tuesday. For a low trade offer, fantasy managers can take a chance on the 32-year-old looking more like himself down the stretch.
Pete Fairbanks, RP, Marlins: Fantasy managers who need to add a closer without giving much up can target Fairbanks, who has recorded a brutal 6.96 ERA. The ninth-inning man has blown just one save since May 17, and he’s fortunate to pitch for a Marlins team that is doing well enough to retain their assets past the trade deadline but not well enough to trade for a new closer. Fairbanks’ velocity and strikeout rate are fine this year. He is missing some of his spots, which is leading to plenty of hard contact, but there are inevitably going to be some warts with someone who is having a poor season.
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