Rory McIlroy chasing history and Scottie Scheffler targeting the career Grand Slam, this week’s US Open at Shinnecock Hills has the makings of a major that will be remembered for years.
The United States Golf Association confirmed last September that Shinnecock Hills Golf Club in Southampton, New York, would host the 126th US Open on 18-21 June 2026. It is the sixth time the club has hosted the championship, and the layout has a habit of making reputations and breaking hearts in equal measure. The last time the field came here, in 2018, Brooks Koepka held on grimly for a one-over winning total. Nobody finished the week under par. That context matters enormously as the world’s best players arrive on Long Island this week.
Two storylines dominate everything else. Scottie Scheffler, the world number one, tees it up needing only this title to complete the career Grand Slam, having won The Masters, the PGA Championship and The Open Championship in previous years. Alongside him on the odds board is Rory McIlroy, who arrives as the reigning Masters champion after winning his second consecutive green jacket at Augusta in April, joining Tiger Woods, Jack Nicklaus and Nick Faldo as the only players to go back-to-back at Augusta.
Scheffler’s Irons, McIlroy’s Momentum and the Question of Form
Scheffler enters the week as the 11/2 favourite with UK bookmakers, and the statistics provide a reasonable basis for that assessment. He leads the PGA Tour in strokes gained: total for the season and sits first in greens in regulation at 71.99 per cent, a figure that suits Shinnecock’s demands for precision rather than aggression. His approach play, however, has been conspicuously below his own standards. For three consecutive seasons he led the Tour in strokes gained: approach. This year he ranks 16th, gaining 0.52 shots per round with his irons, significantly down from the levels above 1.2 shots per round he reached in 2024 and 2025. The compensating factor is his putting, which has been transformed: he is averaging 0.47 strokes gained on the greens in 2026, placing him inside the top 20 on Tour, and Shinnecock’s famously difficult putting surfaces could make that a decisive asset.
His most recent five tournaments tell a more encouraging story. He is averaging 0.97 strokes gained: approach across those events, and 0.44 strokes gained: around the green, signs that his iron play is returning to something closer to its peak. A player who finished second at the Masters, tied seventh at the 2025 US Open and is still first in the world has not been in poor form by any rational measure; the scrutiny is a function of the extraordinary standard he set himself in previous seasons.
McIlroy arrives at 12/1, boosted by his Masters victory but carrying a recent record at this specific major that gives pause. He missed the cut at Shinnecock in 2018, the last time the US Open visited the course, and has not won the championship since his debut major triumph at Congressional in 2011. He made clear in the aftermath of his second Masters that history-making is what drives him now, and Shinnecock would rank among the most storied venues he could add to his collection.
Jon Rahm’s Return to Contention and the Wider Threat
Jon Rahm is the third name on the short list at 13/1, and his inclusion reflects a genuine return to form. The 2021 US Open champion finished runner-up at the PGA Championship last month, his first major top-five since joining the LIV Golf League. Speaking to Freebets.com, a trusted editorial resource helping UK bettors navigate the best betting sites in the UK, one analyst noted: “Rahm’s runner-up at Southern Hills showed he can compete at the top of major leaderboards again. His long iron numbers over the past three events put him back in the category of players who can genuinely win a US Open, not just contend for a round or two.”
Tommy Fleetwood enters at 22/1 and carries specific Shinnecock credentials. He holds the course record of 63, set in the final round of the 2018 championship, though he also carded a 78 in round three of that same week, a reminder of how quickly conditions can dismantle even the best-laid plans on Long Island. He has seven top-ten finishes in 2026 and arrives as the reigning FedExCup champion. His putting has been reliable throughout the season, and he is the kind of player who suits the methodical, low-risk approach that Shinnecock tends to reward.
Cameron Young, at 20/1, adds an intriguing local dimension. The New York native has two wins and six top-tens in 2026 and was brilliant during last year’s Ryder Cup at Bethpage Black. Matt Fitzpatrick, the 2022 US Open champion, has three wins this season and holds the kind of course-management experience that serves players well at Shinnecock. At 22/1, he represents value that several analysts have noted this week.
Shinnecock’s Demands and What History Suggests About the Winner
Shinnecock Hills plays as a par 70 at 7,440 yards and sits just off the Atlantic coast, meaning wind is a constant variable rather than an occasional complication. In 2018 the greens became dangerously fast on Saturday afternoon and the USGA was forced to add water; the course conditions exposed the limits of preparation in a way that no other major venue quite matches. Koepka’s one-over winning total that year arrived without a single player finishing the week in red numbers, a statistic that underlines how unforgiving the layout can be when conditions tighten. The USGA has detailed the course history ahead of this week’s championship, noting that the field of 156 players includes 49 of the top 50 in the world rankings.
An analyst familiar with the course’s demands observed: “The players who win at Shinnecock tend to make conservative decisions from the tee, take the greens from the correct angle, and two-putt everything. Birdies come in clusters or not at all. Scheffler’s greens-in-regulation numbers are the best in the world right now, and that matters enormously here. But a week when the putter fails at Shinnecock is a week when you finish outside the top 30, regardless of your ball-striking.”
Defending champion J.J. Spaun arrives at 50/1, having won at Oakmont last year by two strokes over Robert MacIntyre. Spaun’s strength is the kind of persistent, error-free scoring that suits demanding US Open setups; he is not among the pre-tournament conversation starters, but he is precisely the type of player the USGA’s course setup tends to favour. Brooks Koepka, back at the venue where he last won a back-to-back, enters at 35/1 but withdrew from the RBC Canadian Open last weekend with a hand injury. His fitness for the full week is unclear.
Bryson DeChambeau, who has won the US Open twice, enters at 25/1 but has missed the cut in both major starts so far in 2026. His power off the tee is less of an advantage at Shinnecock than at courses where length shortens the second shot; here, the premium is on accuracy and course management over distance, which complicates his path to a third title.
British and Irish Interest: McIlroy, Fleetwood, Hatton and Rose
For UK golf followers, the week carries particular weight. McIlroy’s quest to add a US Open to his two Masters titles and a US PGA Championship is the dominant thread, but Fleetwood’s credentials at Shinnecock are genuine rather than circumstantial. Tyrrell Hatton is listed at 40/1 and has shown major-level form in patches this season. Justin Rose, three times a Masters runner-up, enters at 40/1 and has a European pedigree that tends to suit the links-adjacent conditions Shinnecock produces.
The weather forecast for the week includes wind on each of the four days, with gusts expected to reach 25 to 30 miles per hour on Saturday. That pattern suits players who can control trajectory and flight rather than those who rely on spin and height to hold the greens. An observer tracking the pre-tournament preparation noted: “The players who have spent time on the range this week working on low stingers and knockdown approaches from 170 yards are preparing for the real tournament. Anyone arriving with a high-launch iron game is going to spend Saturday afternoon watching a lot of shots drift right of target.”
The first round begins Thursday morning at Shinnecock Hills. The field is as strong as any US Open in recent memory, with the added dimension of two distinct historical chases unfolding simultaneously. Whether Scheffler completes his Grand Slam or McIlroy claims another major to cement his standing among the European greats, this week carries the weight of a championship that is unlikely to produce a quiet or straightforward conclusion.
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