Before the playoffs even started, this was the series everybody pointed to, the one everybody wanted to see.
The San Antonio Spurs vs. the Oklahoma City Thunder. The battle of the two best teams in the NBA. The first playoff meeting of what shapes up to be the rivalry that will define the NBA’s next five years (at least). Victor Wembanyama vs. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, two of the top three vote getters in the MVP race. It’s the first time two 62-win teams have met in the playoffs since the 1988 NBA Finals (when Chicago beat Utah)
“They’re playing really well right now. We’re playing really well right now,” the Spurs’ Stephon Castle said. “We’re in each other’s way of going to the finals, so I think it’ll be a good series.”
Here’s everything you need to know about the series.
All times are Eastern (* = if necessary).
Game 1: San Antonio at Oklahoma City, Monday, May 18 (8:30 ET, NBC and Peacock)
Game 2: San Antonio at Oklahoma City, Wednesday, May 20 (8:30 ET, NBC and Peacock)
Game 3: Oklahoma City at San Antonio, Friday, May 22 (8:30 ET, NBC and Peacock)
Game 4: Oklahoma City at San Antonio, May 24, (8 ET, NBC and Peacock)
*Game 5: San Antonio at Oklahoma City, May 26 (8:30 ET, NBC and Peacock)
*Game 6: Oklahoma City at San Antonio, May 28, (8:30 ET, NBC and Peacock)
*Game 7: San Antonio at Oklahoma City, May 30 (8:30 ET, NBC and Peacock)
Player to watch: Victor Wembanyama
Raphielle Johnson, NBC Sports Fantasy Basketball Lead writer
Through two rounds, Wembanyama and the Spurs have not been hampered much by their collective lack of NBA Playoff experience. Sure, he was ejected from Game 4 due to a moment of frustration, but he responded with a dominant showing in Game 5 and then eliminated Rudy Gobert from the proceedings in Game 6 of the Minnesota series. The matchup with Oklahoma City’s frontcourt, particularly Chet Holmgren, is likely to be far more challenging for Wembanyama.
In 10 games this postseason, Wemby is averaging 20.3 points, 10.7 rebounds, 2.4 assists, 4.1 blocks and 1.4 three-pointers per, while shooting 53.8 percent from the field and 84.5 percent from the foul line. Given what he’s achieved thus far, a dominant showing in the conference finals would go a long way toward kicking off the NBA’s “Wemby Era.” And even with San Antonio’s mastery of the Thunder during the regular season, they’re going to need dominance from their 7-foot-4 phenom to take down the reigning champs.
Keys to watch for in Spurs vs. Thunder
Chet Holmgren vs. Victor Wembanyama
Nothing brings out the fire in Wembanyama like going against Chet Holmgren. They both play down any rivalry between the “unicorn” big men, but both seem to get up for facing each other.
Now we get up to seven games of it, with a trip to the Finals on the line.
Holmgren has to score in this matchup. In the regular season meeting, Wembanyama played off Holmgren at the arc, daring him to shoot 3-pointers — he shot 36.2% from deep this season — and then using his length and athleticism to take away drives and plays inside from Holmgren. That also lets Wembanyama play back more in the paint and try to clog things up for Gilgeous-Alexander and other Thunder players looking to drive. If he can do that again, it’s a big plus for San Antonio. Holmgren has to do enough to keep him from camping out inside and getting comfortable.
Spurs defense on Gilgeous-Alexander
While the Lakers were swept out of the playoffs by the Thunder, they did try something different in defending OKC: They double-teamed Gilgeous-Alexander hard and were physical with him from the start. The Lakers threw everything at him and essentially dared anyone else to beat them. It took a bit for Gilgeous-Alexander to adjust.
The problem is, the Thunder do have plenty of other options. Against the Lakers, that started with Ajay Mitchell as a playmaker — he averaged 22.5 points per game against Los Angeles — and Holmgren in the paint. That was too much for the Lakers to handle.
San Antonio is different. What the Spurs bring to the table is bigger, better defending guards in Stephon Castle, Dylan Harper and De’Aaron Fox. They also have Wembanyama patrolling everything behind them. San Antonio isn’t going to go as crazy throwing everything at SGA, but they have watched and learned from what the Lakers did, which is why the third key to this series is…
After missing half of the first-round series against Phoenix and the entire series against Los Angeles with a hamstring strain, Jalen Williams is listed as available and is set to play for the Thunder against the Spurs.
That matters in what is expected to be a long, physical series, though it’s worth watching how long it takes Williams and Mitchell to get used to their changed roles. Williams gives the Spurs another high-level shot creator and scorer and another physical, quality defender to throw at San Antonio’s guards. We’ll see how rusty he is early, but the Thunder need Williams — who battled injuries all season — to be close to his All-NBA self from last season if this team is going back to the NBA Finals.
Predictions
Kurt Helin (NBA lead writer): Thunder in 7
I’m not going to call this the real NBA Finals (because I thought the same thing a year ago, and the Pacers almost proved me wrong), but the winner here will be the heavy favorite in the next round. The Spurs are uniquely constructed to give Oklahoma City trouble, and their defense and maturity make them a legitimate threat to win the series. That said, I am going to bank on the Thunder’s experience in these moments and the diversity and depth of their shot creation to be enough to win, but this goes the distance.
Raphielle Johnson (fantasy basketball lead writer): Thunder in 7
This series is poised to be a classic, given what the teams have accomplished thus far and the talent (players and coaches) on display. Some will make a lot of what happened during the regular season, but the playoffs are an entirely different matter. The Spurs clearly aren’t interested in “waiting their turn,” and rightfully so. However, I like the Thunder to win in seven games. Defending Shai Gilgeous-Alexander without fouling is an immense challenge, and supporting cast members like Ajay Mitchell and Jared McCain have played well in these playoffs.
Jay Coucher (NBA lead betting analyst): Thunder in 7
The Thunder will likely struggle to score in the halfcourt against Victor Wembanyama, who has found an extra gear in the playoffs, but expect the tipping point of the series to be 1) OKC having home court advantage, and 2) OKC generating just enough San Antonio turnovers to juice their own offense.
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