Do you remember when the Red Sox weren’t gonna have any player in 2026 who would hit 20 home runs?
I’m not gonna be gaslit by this by being told that I’m imagining things, because I know you remember this discourse leading up to Opening Day as well. FanGraphs’ ZiPS model said it themselves in the spring: Jarren Duran and Wilyer Abreu were going to lead Boston with 19 homers this season. Even if you wanted to be charitable and incorporate mid-season addition Adley Rutschman into the equation, his ZiPS projections still only accounted for 18 round-trippers.
This idea was (at least anecdotally) a consistent-enough of a conversation leading up to that first series in Cincinnatti. There’s a whole Reddit thread about it (yeah, one whole Reddit post!!!! WOW!!!!). Hell, we here at Over The Monster poised the question back in early March!
Here we are about a half a year later, and the Red Sox now have a trio of guys who have notched at least 20 dongs. Willson Contreras leads the way with 26 (compared to his projected 17 from FanGraphs) followed by Abreu’s 23. Duran logged his 20th on Labor Day, while the currently-injured Ceddanne Rafaela has an outside chance of hitting four more homers to get to 20 if he’s taken off of the injured list sooner rather than later. Hell, with the way he’s been hitting, maybe Mickey Gasper can get to 20 before the Pats begin their season tomorrow night.
As Mista Secatore pointed out in that March article here on OTM, baseball projections are inherently an exercise where there’s not going to be any bold takes. It’s just easier to project, say, 25 homers for a guy as opposed to 40. These models are never gonna stick their neck out for many players, so to speak. ZiPS projected that just eight players in MLB would reach the 35 homer mark by the end of the 2026 season—eight players have already done so as I’m writing this on Labor Day, while a handful of other guys could easily get to 35 by the time game 162 is played.
The point is: You can only take so much away from projections. They can maybe help give you a baseline, but they aren’t to be taken as bible. You know this, of course.
It’s just funny to look back at the noise regarding that talking point. This team, even at their worst, was not gonna play over half of their games in hitter friendly environments by proxy of calling Fenway Park home and not have at least one guy reach 20 homers. When you’ve got the benefit of hitting balls…….over the monster……….or towards Pesky’s Pole about 300 feet away, you almost have to go out of your way to not have even one guy with at least something resembling a modest power output. It was just a matter of who was going to do it, not if it was going to happen in the first place.
At the same time, though, this power output has to be something that’s addressed moving forward.
I commend Craig Breslow and Co. for building a legit American League contender, and I think we here at OTM have done more than enough to praise the hard work the players and coaching staff have put in to get themselves out of the early season hole that was dug. I don’t want to poo poo what’s sure to be an interesting end to the regular season and a fun postseason (HOPEFULLY, KNOCKING ON WOOD, DO NOT YELL AT ME ABOUT A JINX).
Yet the Red Sox rank in the bottom third of the league in terms of total home runs. Their team slugging is still pretty good—just over .400—but I’m talking pure old school taters here, baby. Boston hasn’t ranked worse than 20th in total team home runs in a full season since 2017 (and they even finished 12th in the COVID-shorted season in 2020, in spite of how stinky that team was). Not that home run output is the be-all-end-all for a championship team, but just to put this in perspective: three of the four World Series-winning Boston rosters this century have finished within the top-10 in total team homers in their respective seasons (guess which of the four title-winning teams was the exception in the comments below, and don’t cheat by looking it up!!!!!).
The 2026 Red Sox can absolutely succeed without someone like a Manny Ramirez, or a David Ortiz, or a J.D. Martinez. There are enough guys who, when healthy, can give us enough pop to make this fall a memorable one—even if no one is gonna confuse them with Barry Bonds or Hank Aaron (well, maybe outside of Gasper). Homers aren’t even the key part of the Red Sox’s current DNA; it’s the pitching and the defense that serves as the backbone of this iteration of the club. Even then, there are enough guys in the fold right now—as has been proven since late June—who can carry us to the promised land if things break our way.
With all of that said, I’m just curious to see how this matter of power is addressed moving forward. The Sox play 81 games at one of the most consistently hitter-friendly environments in the sport. Three of our four divisional opponents rank within the top-12 of the league in terms of park factor over the past three seasons (read as: the Orioles, Yankees, and Jays play in at least marginally hitter-friendly environments). Only six parks in the American League have ranked out as “pitcher-friendly” yards over the past three years if Savant’s park factor is to be believed. You can’t go wrong with more juice in the Junior Circuit. It’s too early to try and specifically predict how more power can be brought into Boston, but it’s something to think about moving forward.
In the meantime, let’s just be thankful that the ZiPS projections was wrong about the 2026 version of the Sox’s power output.
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