Let’s start with the good news: The Rays are selecting No. 2 overall in the upcoming MLB Draft for 2026. Based on history, it’s hard to make a bad selection at second overall.
Although these picks don’t receive the notoriety of the name called just seconds before, they are still considered among the top amateur players in the country prior to the draft. Among former second overall picks are a plethora of former All-Stars and several Most Valuable Players and Cy Young’s.
According to Baseball Reference, 54 of the 61 players taken 2nd overall have reached the big leagues. On average, those players have generated 15.1 bWAR over their careers.
To put that into perspective, that’d place a player 12th on the Rays all-time bWAR leaderboard between B.J. Upton and Drew Rasmussen. Of the 54 players to reach the big leagues, 27 of them (50%) had over 10 bWAR over their big league careers.
The first player to ever be taken second overall in the draft was Les Rohr. Rorh was a talented southpaw born in England and later moved to Montana where he became a high school star. The Mets took him in 1965 and he showed plenty of promise but injuries completely derailed his career and he only threw in 3 big league seasons, last appearing in 1969.
The team with the 2nd overall pick the following season enjoyed a lot more success from their selection as the Athletics drafted outfielder Reggie Jackson out of Arizona State University. Jackson would go on to win five World Series over his career, two with the Athletics, and was the Most Valuable Player in 1973; Jackson was also the World Series MVP twice. Over his 21-year career, Jackson hit .262/.356/.490 with 563 homeruns, accruing 72.7 fWAR; he was also a 14 time All-Star and two-time Silver Slugger award winner. For those wondering, the player taken before Reggie Jackson was catcher Steven Chilcott, selected first overall by the Mets; injuries derailed his career and he would never reach the big leagues. At the time of his retirement, Jackson was considered one of the greatest to ever play the game. However, he isn’t even the career bWAR leader among all-time 2nd overall picks.
That distinction belongs to Justin Verlander, whom the Detroit Tigers took 2nd overall in the 2004 draft (the controversial Matt Bush went #1 that year). Verlander reached the big leagues just one season later and took home the Rookie of the Year award in 2006. Over the better part of the next two decades, Verlander would be a perennial All-Star and Cy Young candidate, winning the coveted award three times. In 2011, he was voted the American League’s Most Valuable Player; Verlander also has two World Series rings over his illustrious career.
Another player that seems well on his way to a Hall of Fame career that was taken second overall is Bobby Witt Jr. The talented shortstop was taken 2nd overall by the Kansas City Royals in 2019. After making his big league debut in 2022, Witt Jr. took the baseball world by storm and leads all players in fWAR (28.9) since the start of the 2023 season. His mantle doesn’t feature a MVP yet, but 2026 could be the year that injustice is finally rectified.
Several former members of the Rays organization started their careers as the 2nd overall picks in their respective draft years. That list consists of Mike Kelly (whom the Rays acquired in their first ever trade), Travis Lee, Ben Grieve, Rickie Weeks, and most notably B.J. Upton (who the Rays took 2nd overall in 2002).
Another couple of potential Hall of Famers were taken 2nd overall with Alex Bregman getting the call in 2015 and Byron Buxton going in 2012. Former MVP Kris Bryant was taken 2nd overall in 2013 by the Chicago Cubs. Joe Carter, responsible for one of the greatest World Series moments of all-time, was taken 2nd overall by the Cubs in 1981. Will Clark was a key member of the Giants pennant run in 1989 and finished his career with 52 fWAR, he was taken second overall in the 1985 draft by San Francisco.
In more recent history, the Reds are enjoying the career of Chase Burns thus far after selecting him 2nd overall in 2024. Burns holds the distinction of receiving the largest signing bonus ever for a #2 pick ($9.25M).
Since the 1988 draft (not including 2025), only two of the 36 players to be selected 2nd overall have failed to reach the big leagues: Tyler Kolek (2014, retired) and Druw Jones (2022, still in Double-A).
If you look past all of the All-Stars and future Hall of Famers, the list of players taken 2nd overall is full of players who filled key roles for their respective teams or delivered some franchise defining moments like Alex Gordon (2005) and Mike Moustakas (2007) did with the Royals or Mark Prior (2001) with the Cubs. Even a player who has long since retired that was taken 2nd overall was still affecting the game up until a few months ago as former MLBPA leader Tony Clark was taken as the 2nd pick in 1990 by the Tigers.
With all that said, history suggests the Rays should benefit significantly by having the second overall pick, and no matter who is selected, it’s most likely to be a name who will grace the major league roster in no time.
Read the full article here
