While their midwest counterparts in the American League enjoyed a collective breakout of sorts, 2024 wasn’t exactly a banner year for the NL Central. Besides the champion Brewers, the four other teams found themselves stuck in the mud for much of the summer due to injuries and/or dismal underperformance. None of these teams was ever good enough to be especially threatening, and none was bad enough to be completely out of the mix. Among MLB’s six divisions, the NL Central featured both the second-place team with the fewest wins (Cubs/Cardinals at 83) and the last-place team with the most wins (Pirates at 76).
After a season defined by frustrating mediocrity, this division still feels fairly up for grabs. Can Milwaukee keep proving the doubters wrong? Will the Cubs finally break through? Is this the year the Pirates escape last place? How big of an impact will new Reds skipper Terry Francona make? And what exactly are the Cardinals doing? Let’s get into it.
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Milwaukee Brewers
Projected record (per FanGraphs, as of March 12): 81-81, 33.7% odds to make the playoffs, 22.1% odds to win the division
What happened last year? After Craig Counsell bolted for Chicago and Corbin Burnes was traded right before spring training, the Brewers were written off by many entering 2024. Yet once again, their organizational excellence shined through as Milwaukee took advantage of the mediocrity surrounding it in the division and surged to an NL Central crown in Pat Murphy’s first year at the helm. A heartbreaking exit in the wild-card series preceded a winter that saw yet another wave of familiar faces depart, as shortstop Willy Adames left in free agency and closer Devin Williams was traded to the Yankees.
Best-case scenario: The meteoric ascent of 21-year-old Jackson Chourio continues, giving the Brewers another elite position player alongside star catcher William Contreras. The bullpen doesn’t miss a beat without Williams, and new lefties Nestor Cortes Jr. and Jose Quintana fortify a rotation that clearly needed reinforcements. Rhys Hoskins rediscovers his Philadelphia form and slugs a career-high 35 home runs, which helps to make up for Adames’ absence in the lineup. Fan favorites Christian Yelich and Brandon Woodruff return from their respective surgeries and perform at or near pre-injury levels, pushing Milwaukee to another 90-plus-win season and another division title. The Brewers win a playoff round or two before falling in October to one of the big-market behemoths in the NLCS.
Worst-case scenario: The bullpen regresses just enough without Williams, increasing the burden on a rotation that isn’t quite up to the task. Inconsistency on the mound is compounded by a lineup that falls off harshly after the first handful of hitters, as the bevy of 26-and-under bats fail to demonstrate further progress, leaving the offense in an unreliable state. Organizational competence prevents a totally dismal finish, but the Brewers are out of the mix for the division by September and aren’t nearly good enough to be relevant in what should be a vicious NL wild-card race.
Make-or-break player: Joey Ortiz. While it isn’t settled just yet, Ortiz appears to be the favorite to succeed Adames at shortstop after spending the bulk of his rookie year at third base. Acquired from Baltimore as part of the return for Corbin Burnes, Ortiz looked like quite the pickup when he posted an .891 OPS through the end of May, but he tailed off pretty hard at the plate in the second half. If Ortiz’s plus glove translates to shortstop and he can rediscover his first-half form offensively, the Brewers won’t miss Adames as much as you might expect.
Season prediction: An improved division makes for a more difficult path than last season. The Brewers stay competitive for much of the season and finish with a winning record but don’t have quite enough firepower to secure a wild-card spot.
St. Louis Cardinals
Projected record: 79-83, 23% odds to make the playoffs, 13.9% odds to win the division
What happened last year? The Cardinals improved by 12 wins from their stunningly bad 2023 campaign, yet the 2024 season felt like a similar slog. St. Louis then followed its snoozefest of a season by being the least active team of the winter. The NL Central collectively accounted for just 3.3% of all spending in free agency, lower than any other division, and the Cardinals were the most extreme case: They were the only team in baseball to not sign a single major-league free agent. And despite declaring their intention to trade third baseman Nolan Arenado, they were unable to do so before spring training, leaving their roster virtually unchanged outside of a few departures in free agency (Paul Goldschmidt, Lance Lynn, Kyle Gibson).
Best-case scenario: This is one of the more difficult teams for which to define a best-case scenario because of how this franchise has talked about its goals for 2025. With baseball operations scheduled to be turned over to Chaim Bloom from John Mozeliak after this season, the Cardinals are viewing this as a transition year of sorts, with the focus on improving the infrastructure at all levels of the organization while prioritizing the development of young players. That also means a willingness to part with veterans via trade, which they obviously attempted with Arenado.
But there is still enough talent on this roster to be competitive if everyone plays to their potential. So is the best case for this organization to keep all the veterans and make a surprise push for the division? Or would they be better served long-term to flop early and execute a dramatic sell-off at the deadline, similar to what they did in 2023? This question makes the Cardinals one of the more interesting teams to monitor over the first couple of months of the season.
Worst-case scenario: A worst-case scenario is a bit more clear: It’s a combination of poor performance from veterans that saps their trade value and failure by the key young players to take steps forward and solidify their roles on the roster. This outcome would result in St. Louis having missed their potential window to cash in on the likes of Ryan Helsley and Erick Fedde in exchange for young talent while also having massive questions about just how good the team is moving forward, which could delay a return to contention further into the future, something this fan base — one unused to long stretches of irrelevance — will have a tough time tolerating.
Make-or-break player: Jordan Walker. It’d be foolish to give up on this guy — he’s younger than top prospect Dylan Crews, for some perspective — but Walker’s sophomore season was undeniably a discouraging step back after a promising rookie campaign. There’s still a path for Walker to become a middle-of-the-order force for St. Louis, but it’s important he gets back on track in a season in which the franchise intends to give him every opportunity to reestablish his once sky-high value.
Season prediction: The Cardinals hover around .500 and are within shouting distance of the wild-card picture as the trade deadline approaches, but they opt to sell off as many veterans as possible in an effort to acquire as much young talent as they can entering the Chaim Bloom Era. These moves not only help boost the farm system but also clear the way for more at-bats and innings for younger players to get their feet wet in the big leagues in the second half. The Cards fade hard in the season’s second half, finishing fourth or fifth, but generally execute the organizational plan for the season and enter the winter with the intention of building a roster that can compete in 2026.
Chicago Cubs
Projected record: 84-78, 53.4% odds to make the playoffs, 40.7% odds to win the division
What happened last year? An ugly skid in May and June had the Cubs contemplating being sellers at last year’s trade deadline, but they instead held on to Cody Bellinger and added another bat in Isaac Paredes in an effort to stay in the mix. An 18-8 record in August appeared to vindicate that decision — the Cubs were two games behind the Mets on Sept. 1 — before the team collapsed in September and missed the postseason for the fifth time in six years. Knowing the clock is ticking entering the final year of his contract, president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer acted with a sense of urgency this winter, most notably flipping Paredes and last year’s first-round pick, Cam Smith, to Houston for star outfielder Kyle Tucker in one of the biggest trades of the winter. The Cubs also added several veteran pieces (Ryan Pressly, Matthew Boyd, Justin Turner, Carson Kelly) in hopes of fueling a return to October.
Best-case scenario: The addition of Tucker and the debut of top prospect Matt Shaw elevate this lineup from its longstanding status as a merely solid unit to one of the best position-player groups in the National League. The rotation features three highly effective southpaws in Shota Imanaga, Justin Steele and Boyd, while Pressly anchors a much-improved bullpen that badly needed some veteran stability. Seiya Suzuki continues to rake in his new role as the nearly full-time DH, and Pete Crow-Armstrong’s bat improves to the point that, along with his elite speed and defense, he is one of the best all-around center fielders in baseball. The Cubs win more than 90 games and cruise to a division title in Year 2 under Craig Counsell, and Hoyer gets an extension.
Worst-case scenario: The impressive collection of talent on the roster once again fails to translate to wins. Tucker is good, but as the Cubs struggle to stay in the postseason race, the discussion around him changes from how he can help the Cubs win to whether they should trade him at the deadline. Meanwhile, Smith reaches the big leagues in a hurry and is raking right away for Houston. For Pressly, a decline that began quietly a year ago continues in earnest as he is unable to fix a bullpen that remains a clear weakness. Despite substantial hype, the team stays stuck in neutral, costing Hoyer his job and perhaps necessitating a more dramatic shake-up next winter.
Make-or-break player: Tucker. No need to overcomplicate this one: The 28-year-old outfielder is one of the more important players in baseball in 2025. It’s a lot to ask of a player who has largely played a supporting role in Houston, despite elite production that portrays a superstar, but it’s Tucker’s time to shine for a team that desperately needs him to live up to his potential right away. How he performs will have a big impact not only on the Cubs but also on how many hundreds of millions he commands on the open market next winter. He’s a big deal, plain and simple.
Season prediction: The Cubs finally break through and return to the playoffs as the division winner, albeit the one with the fewest wins and thus without a first-round bye. They notch at least their first playoff win since 2017 but don’t have enough to make the full-blown pennant run the fan base craves. It’s generally considered a successful and encouraging season, but Tucker’s pending departure in free agency casts a shadow of uncertainty entering the winter.
Cincinnati Reds
Projected record: 78-84, 19.5% odds to make the playoffs, 11.5% odds to win the division
What happened last year? The Reds failed to sustain the momentum garnered in 2023, with injuries and underperformance leading to an awful 9-18 stretch in May that effectively sunk any hope of being relevant in the NL race. In an effort to flush their disappointing campaign and get back on track, Cincinnati hired legendary skipper Terry Francona as its new manager, the first big move of what turned out to be an awfully busy offseason that featured several notable additions to both the lineup (Gavin Lux, Austin Hays, Jose Trevino) and pitching staff (Brady Singer, Taylor Rogers, Scott Barlow).
Best-case scenario: Francona not only energizes the franchise but also is able to effectively mix and match with the various chess pieces on the roster who don’t appear to fit together. Lux plays capable defense at multiple positions and hits like he did in the second half of last season, helping to power an offense that benefits significantly from the highly anticipated return of second baseman Matt McLain from injury. Hunter Greene delivers another All-Star campaign atop a rotation that stays healthy, and of course, Elly De La Cruz takes another leap, vaulting into top-five MVP consideration after finishing eighth in 2024. The Reds surge into the wild-card mix and snag a postseason spot in the final week of the season before an early October exit.
Worst-case scenario: Tito doesn’t make much of a difference, as the roster proves to be too flawed on the margins for the team to stay competitive. McLain is rusty in his return, which puts pressure on De La Cruz to shoulder the burden of the offense like he did a year ago. The lineup turns out to be notably undermanned relative to the other NL contenders, and either the bullpen or the rotation severely underwhelms, leaving the Reds stuck in or near fourth place once again, forced to contemplate another offseason of overhaul.
Make-or-break player: Jeimer Candelario. The first year of the corner infielder’s three-year, $45M deal with the Reds was one to forget, as Candelario ranked 165th out of 169 position players (minimum 450 plate appearances) with a -0.4 fWAR. As Cincinnati’s highest paid and most veteran position player, Candelario needs to get back to producing at even an average level if this lineup wants to be anything more than mediocre.
Season prediction: Francona does make a meaningful impact, guiding a hungry Reds club back to relevance in the NL postseason race before coming up short in September, similar to 2023 but with perhaps a few more wins. It’s another year of waiting for a franchise that hasn’t won a playoff series since 1995, the longest drought in MLB.
Pittsburgh Pirates
Projected record: 78-84, 19.8% odds to make the playoffs, 11.8% odds to win the division
What happened last year? Paul Skenes arrived, fundamentally changing the perception of the franchise’s contention window and amplifying Pittsburgh’s relevance tenfold. But the lackluster offense and porous bullpen resulted in an identical record to 2023: 76-86 with a last-place finish. Unsurprisingly (albeit still maddeningly), the Pirates continued to operate on the frugal side over the winter, spending roughly $20 million on six low-impact free agents, ranging from the return of franchise icon Andrew McCutchen to back-end lefty Andrew Heaney. Their biggest trade acquisition — infielder Spencer Horwitz — needed wrist surgery before spring training even started.
Best-case scenario: Skenes wins the NL Cy Young and headlines one of the best rotations in baseball, one that also features continued All-Star-level performance from Mitch Keller and another big step forward from Jared Jones. Prospects Bubba Chandler and Thomas Harrington dominate Triple-A and ultimately replace soft-tossing lefties Heaney and Bailey Falter in a rotation that is the envy of the league by season’s end. Oneil Cruz takes to center field brilliantly and becomes an absolute wrecking ball at the plate, carrying a lineup that is just good enough to support the outstanding pitching staff. The Pirates miss the postseason but win more games (83-plus) than they have since 2015 and demonstrate enough organizational growth to be genuinely optimistic about a postseason push in 2026.
Worst-case scenario: Some portion of the promising pitching staff either gets injured or regresses hard, putting pressure on an ill-equipped lineup to compensate for worse-than-expected run prevention. The Pirates finish in last place again and still don’t have a clear path to build an above-average offense, a problem made worse by the continued unwillingness to spend significant dollars in free agency.
Make-or-break player: David Bednar. Cruz is a quintessential X-factor due to his cathedral ceiling and frustrating floor, and the Pirates need a bunch of hitters to step up if they want to be competitive. But Bednar was the most glaring disappointment in a brutally bad bullpen last year, and the Pirates need him to bounce back. The Pittsburgh native was one of the best closers in baseball for two seasons before things went haywire in 2024, and if he can return to form, that could be the difference between this pitching staff being merely very good and legitimately excellent.
Season prediction: The Pirates’ pitching is formidable enough to avoid a third consecutive 76-win season, but the well-below-average offense keeps them from breaking through as an actual winning team. They win 77-80 games and finish in fourth or fifth place again, extending the National League’s longest playoff drought to a full decade.
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