NFL team win total over/under bets have become more popular during the offseason, as bettors try to take advantage of good values for underrated or overrated teams. That’s the same this year ahead of and immediately after Wednesday’s 2025 NFL schedule release.
There’s another way to consider how good or how bad a team will be during the upcoming season and wager on it: Exploring who is most or least capable of making the playoffs.
Based on the pre-schedule release odds from BetMGM, here are six teams to target this year, for better or for worse:
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Best playoffs futures bets
Chicago Bears make the playoffs (+160)
The Bears were a trendy pick last season with Caleb Williams as a rookie QB, but they let down with bad coaching, leading to the midseason firing of Matt Eberflus and a disappointing 5-12 record. The Commanders with Jayden Daniels and the Broncos with Bo Nix instead ended up being the upstarts riding the coattails of a young franchise QB.
Using fantasy football parlance, that makes Chicago, with Williams going into Year 2, the ideal “post-hype sleeper.” Offensive-minded rookie coach Ben Johnson and some major personnel changes can have a big impact around Williams. Dennis Allen was also a smart hire to lead the defense. Everything points to the Bears at least being a wild-card team behind the Lions, jumping over the Vikings and Packers.
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New England Patriots make the playoffs (+155)
Mike Vrabel also will have great influence in his first year coaching his team. The Patriots invested well on defense and gave Drake Maye the right complementary offensive support with good investments in free agency and the draft. With the Dolphins and Jets slipping, it’s time for the Patriots to return to wild-card status behind the Bills.
Green Bay Packers don’t make the playoffs (-105)
The Packers joined the Lions and Vikings in the playoffs, but the schedule is tougher overall for the division, setting up only two teams to make it. The Vikings are coming off overachieving and can slide with first-year starting QB J.J. McCarthy. Should the Bears squeeze out a wild-card berth, they would do so at the Packers’ expense.
Denver Broncos don’t make the playoffs (-105)
The Broncos were one of the pleasant surprises to make the playoffs last season, but the AFC West team schedules, much like the NFC North’s, were conducive to helping them get in behind the Chiefs and Chargers. There won’t be three West teams in the field again with a tougher slate overall and the Raiders improving behind them. The Broncos are bound to slip out of the No. 7 seed.
Pittsburgh Steelers don’t make the playoffs (-185)
The Steelers have posted 18 consecutive non-losing seasons under coach Mike Tomlin, but they also have won only one AFC North title in the past six seasons and missed the playoffs in three of the past seven. This is feeling a lot like 2022 following two wild-card berths, when the team was in the initial transition without Ben Roethlisberger at QB. They can still keep the streak alive at 9-8, but it’s more likely they dip under .500 as a third-place team or worse.
Jacksonville Jaguars make the playoffs (+160)
The Jaguars have some parallel vibes to 2022 when they went 9-8 and won the AFC South in the first season under coach Doug Pederson, also Year 2 for Trevor Lawrence. After Johnson and Vrabel, the early best new coach aura belong to offensive-minded Liam Coen, a former Sean McVay assistant coming over from the Buccaneers.
The Texans didn’t have the best offseason and are vulnerable to a slide in Year 3 with C.J. Stroud and DeMeco Ryans. Lawrence has his best support to date, stamped by the aggressive trade-up for Travis Hunter. The defense also has its share of recently high-drafted talent. This doesn’t feel as safe as the Bears or Patriots, but there’s also some make-or-break pressure on Lawrence to prove he’s a playoff QB again.
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