New Beginnings: Mariners vs. Giants Series Preview

With a few days to rest and reevaluate after a disappointing end to the first half of the season, the Mariners are hoping to start fresh after the All-Star break. Julio Rodriguez and Brendan Donovan should be returning from their injuries sooner rather than later, and the team will kick off the stretch run with a six-game homestand against a pair of weaker National League teams. That’s a pretty soft landing to begin the second half of the season, hopefully providing the team a spark ahead of a huge matchup against Texas next weekend.

It’s been a rough season for the Giants, both on and off the field. This team was supposed to be good enough to challenge for a NL Wild Card spot, but they’re looking like they’ll need to reset their roster for next year at the trade deadline. The uninspired play on the field is one thing, but the off-field issues are overshadowing everything. There was the Pride Night controversy, the mismanagement from new manager Tony Vitello, tone deaf comments from players and president of baseball operations Buster Posey. It’s been a circus, and it’s hard not to believe that all those distractions are taking a toll on the team’s play on the field.

There are a few bright spots to point to in the lineup. Luis Arraez earned a spot on the NL All-Star team thanks to a career-best season. His power output is the highest it’s ever been thanks to the expansive gaps in Oracle Park, helping him earn 21 doubles and seven triples. What’s more impressive is that he’s turned himself into an excellent defender at second base thanks to the tutelage of infield guru Ron Washington. Rafael Devers got off to a slow start but he’s posted a 147 wRC+ and 12 home runs since the beginning of June. The other two stars in the lineup, Willy Adames and Matt Chapman, haven’t found much consistency this year; both are in the midst of career-worst seasons. With those two stars unable to produce in the middle of the lineup, San Francisco has had to turn to breakout utility infielder Casey Schmitt and rookie Bryce Eldridge to carry a lot of the load.

Probable Pitchers

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Landen Roupp has taken a big step forward on the mound this year. His strikeout rate is nearly four points higher than it was last year, leading to a 3.29 FIP that ranks 12th in the majors. Unfortunately, he was also one of the pitchers at the center of the Giants’ Pride Night controversy a month ago, which has overshadowed the progress he’s made on the field. As our own Ryan Blake pointed out on FanGraphs back in April, Roupp’s improvement this year seems to stem from his position on the mound. That’s helped him disguise his two best pitches, his sinker and curveball, a bit better. His spotty command is still holding him back from joining the game’s elite, and he’s been a bit unlucky to run such a high ERA despite his solid peripherals.

Few pitchers have been as consistent and durable as Logan Webb has been over the past five years. He’s accumulated at least 4.1 fWAR in every season since 2021, though that streak might be broken this year. After enjoying a huge jump in strikeouts last year, his K% has fallen to the lowest it’s been since 2020. Both his walk rate and groundball rate are approaching career worsts as well. He spent three weeks on the IL in May with a knee injury — the first time he’s dealt with any kind of injury since 2022 — which could be affecting his performance on the field. He’s also throwing his four-seamer and cutter a lot more often this year at the expense of his sweeper; that pitch mix change could explain some, but not all, of the issues he’s facing.

After recovering from Tommy John surgery in 2024, Robbie Ray put together a full, healthy season last year. He’s not the same pitcher that won the AL Cy Young in 2021, nor the pitcher we saw for a single season in Seattle. His 7.4% walk rate during those two years looks like an aberration; he’s back up above 10% in his three seasons in San Francisco. More importantly, his strikeout rate has fallen in consecutive seasons, and it now sits at just 20.3%, the lowest it’s been since his rookie cup of coffee back in 2014. He’s also diversified his pitch mix, adding a changeup and a sinker to give him a deeper five-pitch repertoire to keep batters off his signature four-seamer and slider.

The Big Picture:

The Rangers eeked out a series win over the Astros last weekend to maintain a 1.5 game lead in the division. Texas travels to Atlanta this weekend while Houston hosts Baltimore. In the Wild Card race, the Mariners are tied with the surprising Twins and the surging Red Sox, riding a nine-game win streak, are just a half game back. Minnesota travels to Chicago to face the Cubs while the Red Sox host the Rays.