Over the last month of the men’s college basketball regular season, there’ve seemingly been safe spots in the NCAA tournament at-large pool available for the taking. Most teams, however, haven’t taken them.
As a result, more than a handful of teams enter tournament week with work to do to push their way to the right side of the proverbial bubble. For some such squads, the quest might already be over – better luck next year, Stanford.
Here are five games to watch involving other bubble dwellers hoping to avoid the same fate on the Wednesday schedule. All four power conferences are represented on this list, but we’ll start with a couple more matchups in the afore-mentioned ACC.
North Carolina State vs. Pittsburgh
Time/TV: noon ET, ESPN2.
The Wolfpack have been a wildly inconsistent bunch, having won just once in their last seven outings. That victory was a blowout over rival North Carolina, but some of the losses have been downright unsightly. They’re probably still safe given the chaos on the rest of the bubble over the last few weeks, but a setback here to the Panthers, who are outside the top 100 in the NCAA’s NET ranking, would be more damaging than a result against Stanford would have been.
SMU vs. Louisville
Time/TV: 2:30 p.m. ET, ESPN.
The Mustangs were able to avoid a resume-killer against Syracuse in the first round of the ACC tournament, and now they have an opportunity to boost their cause. The Cardinals are in much safer territory, thanks to a solid road win at Miami to conclude the regular season, but would like to turn in a good performance nevertheless on the eve of March Madness.
SMU guard Boopie Miller (2) dribbles the ball as Syracuse guard Naithan George (11) defends during the 2026 ACC tournament game at Spectrum Center in Charlotte, N.C.
Cincinnati vs. Central Florida
Time/TV: 3 p.m. ET, ESPNU.
The 8-9 pairing in the Big 12 second round isn’t an bubble-elimination game per se. The Knights have a few more quality results on their resume and would probably still be in with a loss, though they might be shuffled closer to the First Four. The Bearcats spent much of the conference campaign trying to erase some bad outcomes from November and early December. They’ve won six of eight entering the postseason. A victory won’t clinch a berth, but it would keep them in the conversation.
Auburn vs. Mississippi State
Time/TV: 3 p.m. ET, SECN.
Hardwood pundits from just about every locale in the nation outside of Auburn, Alabama, cite the Tigers, just a game above .500 entering the SEC tournament, as Exhibit A in the case against NCAA expansion. Through sheer volume they’ve amassed numerous Quad 1 victories, but the number in the loss column, especially if it came against the sub-.500 Bulldogs, would become too large to dismiss. Just advancing isn’t enough for Steven Pearl’s team but it gives them a chance to fight another day.
Indiana vs. Northwestern
Time/TV: 5:30 p.m. ET, BTN.
Exhibit B is Indiana, although most bracketologists have the Hoosiers on the outside anyway. IU enters the Big Ten tournament needing a deep run. Beating the Wildcats won’t move the needle on its own, but a loss would end chance to add more quality wins.
This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: NCAA Tournament bubble games impacting March Madness field Wednesday
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