August is usually dead in the NBA. The top free agents are mostly off the board, the summer’s biggest trades have been completed, and at this point trying to take a stab at preseason power rankings feels appropriate.
This year feels a little different. The Kawhi Leonard trade between the Clippers and Raptors is still in limbo because of the league’s pending cap circumvention investigation. There’s been little movement on the restricted free agent market with teams making full use of their leverage to avoid overpaying their players. There are also some quality veterans still available, even if it’s unlikely that any of them truly impact this year’s championship chase. Don’t rule out a late summer blockbuster just before training camp either, because those have become increasingly common in recent seasons.
It’s been a while since we checked in on the NBA’s top remaining free agents, so let’s give out some predictions on where they may eventually end up.
No one sees Kuminga as a future star anymore, but he can still add some downhill power and scoring punch for the right price. The Minnesota Timberwolves, Cleveland Cavaliers, and Lakers are the three teams he’s been connected to lately, and it feels like Los Angeles offers the best opportunity for Kuminga to boost his value in future years. The Lakers still desperately need some help on the wings, and Luka Doncic should be able to get Kuminga good shots in transition and on cuts to the basket. Kuminga’s volume scoring could come in handy too if Doncic and Austin Reaves are both off the floor or miss time with injury. The Lakers have floated a three-year, $45 million sign-and-trade deal, but assuming Atlanta doesn’t want to take on Jarred Vanderbilt, I still think there’s a match on a one-year contract for around the minimum.
Watson is the most interesting remaining player on the free agent market, not necessarily because he’s the best (that’s Jalen Duren), but because it actually feels like there’s a chance he changes teams. The Nuggets are already in the second apron after matching Spencer Jones’ deal. Sure, Denver could still trim salary up until the trade deadline to avoid those penalties, but it’s going to get even trickier to do if they retain Watson. Right now, Denver is reportedly offering Watson a five-year deal below the mid-level exception, which his camp surely views as a slap in the face. There’s already some talk of what the Nuggets would be willing to accept in a trade, starting with a future first-round pick, and Watson is young enough (soon-to-be 24 years old) to make that palatable for a desperate team like Cleveland. The Cavs have done a whole bunch of nothing this offseason, and they’ve been after an athletic wing for years. I could see Cleveland finding a way to unload Dennis Schroder, then offering Max Strus and a future pick or a pick swap to Denver for Watson. I think that would be good value for the Nuggets if Strus can actually stay healthy, and it’s also a worthwhile swing by Cleveland if Watson can sustain his improved play late in the year.
Duren topped our free agent rankings heading into the summer, and he remains unsigned. The Pistons have done well to use their leverage in restricted free agency to try to get him on a team-friendly deal after his Third-Team All-NBA season was weakened by a poor playoff run. Duren is threatening to play on the qualifying offer right now to become an unrestricted free agent next year, but it’s hard to take a $9 million deal if the team is offering $140 million guaranteed. Ultimately, I think Duren swallows his pride and accepts what feels like a fair contract for both sides.
James Harden: Cavaliers
It’s widely assumed that Harden will be back in Cleveland; the only question is what the contract will look like. The Cavs are reportedly discussing two- and three-year deals with Harden, but they need to be careful on the brink of his 37th birthday. Harden is still very good, but the drop-off cliff can come at any moment. Cleveland would be wise to try to get a partial guarantee on the second year of the deal.
The Pelicans, Bulls, and Mavericks all reportedly have interest in Mathurin, but his status as a restricted free agent is going to make it hard to pry him out of LA if the Clippers actually want to retain him. Any sign-and-trade deal has to be three years, and that feels like a big commitment for any of his suitors. Instead, Mathurin is probably best playing on a 1+1 contract with a second-year option, and that’s something the Clippers can easily match. I expected New Orleans to make a serious push, but the most likely outcome is a return to the Clippers.
It’s finally time for DeRozan’s ring chaser era after his release from the Kings. Miami, Toronto, Washington, Golden State, Denver, Detroit, and Cleveland have all been mentioned as possible suitors, and he’d be a nice addition for any of them at the minimum. The Heat ideally need more outside shooting next to Giannis Antetokounmpo and Bam Adebayo, but I like the idea of DeRozan leading bench units while also helping boost the offense if Giannis misses time with injury.
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