In the 2019 MLB Draft, CJ Abrams was one of the most highly touted prospects. MLB Pipeline ranked him as the 4th overall prospect in that draft. However, he was not seen as being a monster power hitter. Pipeline actually expected him to be a 10 to 15 home run hitter whose speed and contact skills carried his profile.
After being taken 6th overall by the Padres and being traded to the Nationals in the Juan Soto trade, Abrams is now a much more powerful hitter. That slim, wiry kid who was projected to have 40 grade power is now a grown man with a 30 home run season under his belt.
Even now when you see Abrams, he does not look like your typical 30 home run bat. He has filled out, but he is not an overly physical player. Abrams is still quite lean and his exit velocities do not jump off the page. However, he has still found a way to hit 31 home runs even while slumping down the stretch.
A big reason why Abrams is able to hit so many home runs is his pull heavy approach. This season he is pulling the ball in the air at a 24.7% clip, which is a career high and well above league average. His swing is geared to do damage to the pull side, which leads to him out slugging his exit velocities.
It is always fun to see a player succeed in a way that scouts did not expect. People throughout the industry knew that CJ Abrams would be a good player from a young age. However, he is doing it in a slightly different way.
As Abrams got closer to the big leagues, scouts became more bullish on his power upside. Baseball America said that Abrams could develop into a 20 home run bat and Pipeline stated that he had at least average power. Those projections seemed right on the money until this season. Abrams hit 18, 20 and 19 homers from 2023 to 2025.
However, he has reached a different level this season. With 31 homers, no shortstop has hit more long balls than Abrams. He has become a power bat that is a force to be reckoned with. If he can find a way to finish seasons more effectively, Abrams can become a 35 to 40 home run bat in the future.
He has been around a long time now, so it is easy to forget that CJ Abrams is still just 25 years old. Even though he has faded late in seasons, Abrams has been on an upward trajectory and this was his best year yet.
The question now is what comes next for Abrams. He just had a career year, but is getting closer to free agency. Abrams only has two more years of team control left. Do the Nationals trade him, extend him or do they want to build around him and let these next two years play out? We will get the answer to this question in the offseason.
All I know is that 30/30 players do not grow on trees. In fact, Abrams is only the second National to ever accomplish that. Alfonso Soriano is the only other, and that happened 20 years ago now. Abrams is a special player, and it will take a special haul to get him out of DC.
With the recent extension of Cade Cavalli, there could be at least some chance of extending Abrams. He is not a Boras client, which makes things easier. However, it has been reported that there has not been a lot of movement on that front yet. It will be fascinating to see what happens this offseason.
Regardless of that, it is cool to see players morph into something we did not see coming. CJ Abrams was expected to be a great player, but not a big time power hitter. He has flipped the script and has become one of the best power hitting middle infielders in the game. Seeing that growth and development is one of my favorite parts of being a baseball fan. You can think you know it all, but the game will always throw surprises your way.
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