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Another busy slate across the Majors means I’ve found more value in the home run market.
My MLB player props HR analysis for today’s action will feature Shohei Ohtani, Alec Burleson, and Matt McLain.
Read more in my MLB picks for Saturday, June 13.
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UPDATE: Added another HR pick + parlay.
Best MLB home run props today
|
Player to hit a HR |
Odds |
|---|---|
|
Shohei Ohtani |
+298 |
|
Alec Burleson |
+690 |
|
Matt McLain |
+610 |
Home run pick: Shohei Ohtani (+298)
Los Angeles Dodgers superstar Shohei Ohtani is finally starting to find his power stroke. He’s slugged three home runs in his last six games, carrying an impressive .417 ISO and 58.8% hard hit rate during that span.
Ohtani will face Chicago White Sox starter Sean Burke this afternoon, and the matchup plays in his favor. Burke has allowed 1.89 HR/9 across his last two appearances, and 45.5% of his contact in those outings was in the air. 20% left the yard.
Nearly 40% of Ohtani’s contact is in the air on the road this season. He consistently gets the ball in the air, and Burke’s recent tendency to allow fly balls and home runs creates an appealing matchup.
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Where to watch: CHSN, SportsNet LA
Home run pick: Alec Burleson (+690)
Alec Burleson is one of the hottest hitters in baseball right now. He’s gone deep in three consecutive games, and he has an astounding 52.2% hard hit rate and 26.1% barrel rate over his last six games. Additionally, Burleson also has a .560 ISO.
Minnesota Twins starter Connor Prielipp has thrown the ball relatively well lately, but what stands out to me is that he’s allowed over 50% of his contact against left-handed batters in the air. That is dangerous against a hitter like Burleson, who possesses a 40% HR/FB rate during this hot streak.
I’ll play this pick up to +500.
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Where to watch: Cardinals.TV, Twins.TV
Home run pick: Matt McLain (+610)
Matt McLain has found his power stroke lately. He has a .556 ISO over his last five games to go along with three home runs. The Cincinnati Reds stud is consistently squaring up the baseball, carrying a 50% hard hit rate and 33.3% barrel rate.
The matchup here is an appealing one as well. The Arizona Diamondbacks send Michael Soroka to the hill, who has allowed 1.38 HR/9 across his previous two starts. Soroka has also given up nearly 50% of his contact during that span in the air, and McLain has an average 21.5-degree launch angle over his last 22 plate appearances. That’s compared to a season launch angle of just 12.4.
Soroka is a fly-ball pitcher lately, and McLain is consistently getting lift when he makes contact.
I’ll play this pick up to +450.
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Where to watch: DBacks.TV, Reds.TV
Today’s HR parlay
|
Shohei Ohtani |
Bet Now |
|
Alec Burleson |
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|
Matt McLain |
Quinn Allen’s 2026 Transparency Record
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HR picks: 9-63, -18.56 units
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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