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Monday madness starts with cashing some home run props!
These are my top looks to leave the yard, featuring Ben Rice and Colt Keith in favorable matchups showing value in the MLB player props.
Here are my favorite MLB picks & home run predictions for Monday, July 20.
Best MLB home run props today
|
Player to hit a HR |
Odds |
|---|---|
|
Ben Rice |
+281 |
|
Colt Keith |
+415 |
Home run pick: Ben Rice (+281)
New York Yankees slugger Ben Rice draws Braxton Ashcraft this evening, a matchup where he covers over 91% of his arsenal according to Batters-Box.
Ashcraft has allowed left-handed hitters to do just about whatever they want as of late. Over his last 60 batters faced, lefties have generated a 74.3% elevation rate, 57.1% hard-hit rate, and 14.3% barrel rate. During that stretch, they own a .407 xBA, .825 xSLG, .350 xwOBA, and .319 ISO.
Rice has been crushing right-handed pitching recently as well. Over his last 30 at-bats against righties, he owns a .308 BA, .692 SLG, 1.092 OPS, and .384 ISO. During that span, he has produced a 66.7% hard-hit rate and 22.2% barrel rate.
This is an excellent spot for the All-Star to leave the yard.
Home run pick: Colt Keith (+415)
Wind blowing out and Jameson Taillon on the mound? Yeah, we need to back a Tiger to go Ya-Ya, and Colt Keith is our guy.
The Detroit Tigers third baseman carries an elite rating on Batters-Box’s current season dataset while covering over 61% of Taillon’s pitch mix. The expected data suggests that arsenal coverage should actually be higher, which is why I am leaning heavily into Keith this evening.
Plus, he has been one of the hottest hitters in the Tigers lineup. Over his last 30 at-bats against right-handed pitching, Keith owns a .654 SLG, 1.021 OPS, .428 wOBA, and .346 ISO, while producing a 47.4% hard hit rate and 15.8% barrel rate.
Taillon has struggled against left-handed bats this season, allowing a 75% elevation rate and 15% barrel rate. Lefties have posted a .553 xSLG, .407 xwOBA, and .315 ISO against him.
At that price, it is hard to pass up on a hitter who is absolutely crushing the baseball.
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Where to watch: MARQ, DSN
Colby Marchio’s 2026 Transparency Record
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HR picks: 81-287, +9.8 units
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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