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It’s been a great week on the home-run front as the MLB player prop market has been good to us without terrible hitting conditions.
There are some great spots to attack today, so I’m targeting the best hitting environments and matchups, and hopefully take a little money into the weekend.
The Jays have a great matchup vs. one of the luckier pitchers in baseball right now, and the Jordan Walker price is head-scratching when you look at his home-run matchup.
These are my favorite home run props for Friday, April 17.
Best MLB home run props today
|
Player to hit a HR |
Odds |
|---|---|
|
Daulton Varsho |
+540 |
|
Jordan Walker |
+540 |
Daulton Varsho (+540)
How about a little lefty-on-righty for +540 to start a Friday home run train?
Daulton Varsho is hitting out of the two-hole and might get that all-important fifth at-bat. He is also in the middle of a power surge with three home runs over his last six games.
The indoor matchup vs. Mike Soroka is a plus. The Jays likely have plenty of info on the Canadian pitcher, who sits in the Bottom-20 in BlastCon% among all MLB starters this year.
You will also be hard-pressed to find a pitcher that has been as lucky as Soroka this year, with an ERA three full points below his expected numbers. There are also no left-handers in the Arizona bullpen, which sits 21st in RP ERA.
The fair price on this home run is around +450.
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Where to watch: Dbacks.TV, Sportsnet
Jordan Walker (+540)
What a great price for one of the league’s top home-run hitters to start the season.
Jordan Walker has elite marks in swing speed and Blast Contact%, which have translated into a league-leading eight home runs. He gets a favorable matchup against Peter Lambert, who is making his debut and may only be in this spot due to injuries in the Astros’ rotation rather than performance.
Lambert hasn’t pitched in the majors since 2024 and has allowed 25 home runs over his last 148+ innings in the MLB. He’s unlikely to go deep, which brings a vulnerable Houston bullpen into play — a unit that has already allowed the second-most home runs this season.
Walker could see fringe MLB arms for much of this game. This price should be closer to +390, and in a matchup like this, the scoring environment could get out of hand quickly.
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Where to watch: Space City Home Network, Cardinals.TV
Jinglis’ 2026 Transparency Record
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HR picks: 5-30, +0.6 units
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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