Cleveland Cavaliers head coach Kenny Atkinson’s honesty and transparency are among his best attributes. He’s always going to tell you the truth, which is different than most coaches who give trite answers that mean very little.
That honesty, though appreciated by me, might not always be welcomed by everyone. Especially when his group is down 3-0 to a New York Knicks team that has simply been better.
After practice on Sunday, Atkinson shared that his players gave him numerous reasons to believe that they could win Game 4. When asked what his reasoning would be, he pointed to the numbers.
“Analytically … we’ve won two out of three.”
On its surface, that’s a rough quote. There’s no way around that.
Yet, if you listen to the whole quote within its context, and the question that led up to it, it makes much more sense. He’s asked why he would believe they can win one game. He’s not making excuses for them being down.
Reporter: “What’s your answer to your own question (why you believe the Cavs could win the next game)?”
Atkinson: “We’ve had success against this team before. We’ve had really good moments in this series, up 20 in Game 1. Even Game 2, take that run out from the beginning of the third quarter and it’s pretty tight.
“I think analytically, think we’ve won the … I said three out of three (after Game 3), we’re two out of three, in the expected wins. I don’t know if you guys follow that, the expected score. We’ve won two out of three.
“I know you’re looking at me confused, but there is really… if you believe in process and all that, … Take that layer. I know I don’t throw that on them. I see it for myself. We have this feeling, I have this feeling, then I can go to our analytical table.
“Last night, our expected score was like one point or two, us shooting way below expected. Them shooting way over. I know no one wants to hear that. I think you guys like it. I know the general public, no one wants that. Everyone is outcome-based. Sure, I get that too.”
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Analytics can be an easy punching bag, especially when what happens on the court goes against what the numbers suggest. But it’s important to remember that analytics are just stats. And stats are tangible facts that come from the game. It’d be stupid not to use those facts as a coach.
Anyone who works in an analytics department for an NBA team will tell you that the results in a single game or series could go against longer trends. Usually, the numbers will even out over a long enough stretch, but playoff series are sprints, not marathons.
The Cavs have, in fact, been on the wrong side of the numbers game so far in this series.
New York has sometimes dared Cleveland’s best shooters to beat them from deep, and they haven’t been able to make them pay. So much so that Knicks head coach Mike Brown said that his team was “lucky” that Cleveland had been missing good looks before Game 3.
These misses have cost the Cavs games and a chance to be competitive in the series.
As a coach, all you can do is instill confidence in your group and make sure the process is correct. After all, Atkinson isn’t able to come off the bench and start knocking down open looks himself.
Delivering a message to his team that they should stick with what they’re doing is reasonable. They aren’t going to radically change who they are overnight, especially against a Knicks team that is selling out to stop rolls to the basket and anything inside the paint. If the outside shots start falling, they might be able to win a game and send this series back to New York.
At the same time, when these comments are said to the public, they come across as arrogant and detached from reality. It’s what someone would say if they want to keep their job and shift the blame to others while also discrediting their opponent.
I’ve been around Atkinson long enough to believe that his intentions weren’t to do so. He’s honest to a fault with reporters. And it’s understandable to think that his good three-point shooters will eventually start knocking down open looks.
We’ll see if the Cavs can do so in Game 4. If they don’t, their season could come to an unceremonious close in a series they actually lost in four games.
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