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What can we say about Jalen Brunson that hasn’t already been said about Tecmo Bowl Bo Jackson?
Absolutely unstoppable.
Brunson’s late-game heroics have the New York Knicks knocking on the door of their first NBA title since 1973 when they visit the San Antonio Spurs in Game 5 of the NBA Finals.
I’m not rushing to bet the Under on his points total in my Knicks vs. Spurs predictions, but I will fade assists when it comes to the Jalen Brunson odds.
Find out more in my best NBA picks for Saturday, June 13.
Jalen Brunson prop pick for Game 5
Jalen Brunson best bet: Under 5.5 assists (+110 at bet365)
Jalen Brunson is coming off his best passing performance of the NBA Finals, dishing out seven assists on a potential 15 dimes in the New York Knicks’ ridiculous Game 4 comeback.
This is a notable swing in passing production, with Brunson registering just nine potential assists in each of the first three games of the series and finishing with totals of two, six, and five helpers versus the San Antonio Spurs.
Those seven assists in Game 4 marked the first time in the past six postseason games that Brunson finished Over his assists total. It also has this prop market skewing toward six dimes, with Over 5.5 carrying a hefty ask and some books up to 6.5 O/U.
This sudden shift in sharing the basketball wasn’t really Brunson’s doing but was more a result of the Knicks having to scrap their initial offensive schemes for Game 4, as well as suddenly hot shooting from New York in the second half.
Coach Mike Brown was aiming to run the ball through center Karl-Anthony Towns and have Brunson play off-ball more in Game 4 to create space for his shots, but KAT got whistled for two quick fouls in the opening minute.
That had Brunson back as the primary ball handler for a good chunk of time. His 115 touches were a series high after posting 95, 95, and 109 touches in the opening three contests.
Game 5 has Brown going back to his game plan of running Towns as a facilitator at the high post and involving Brunson in screen action away from the ball. That prevents his dribble-heavy slop from Game 3’s loss and exposes the switching issues that plagued the Spurs during the Knicks’ rally on Wednesday.
Brunson’s early projections sit above six assists for Saturday, which is nothing new. His projections have repeatedly landed north of this number during the playoffs, yet the Under on assists is 6-2 in his last eight postseason showings.
The prop markets are overcorrecting to a unique game scenario in Game 4. I feel confident that Brunson will be focused on firing up shots and won’t give up the ball with the game on the line.
You can find the Under 5.5 assists paying out as big as +118 or go low on the taller total at Under 6.5 (-160).
Jalen Brunson same-game parlay
Brunson’s seven assists in Game 4 had a lot to do with Towns’ foul trouble. New York wants to take the ball out of his hands and create space for his shots as a cutter.
That scheme will lead to more 3-point looks, with Brunson bagging three triples in each of the past two games, and the game script saying the Knicks are fighting from behind.
Brunson has been big on the boards, with five rebounds in each of his last three outings while putting himself in place for an average of 10.0 rebounding chances in those games.
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