We step outside the lab to look at a situation that is becoming more and more dire. However. we have to constantly remain guarded against the hyperbolic. People are often drawn to the extremes on managers. It was Whitey Herzog that said he was two players away from the pennant when he managed the Kansas City Royals: Babe Ruth and Cy Young. The clear implication is that players drive championships.
I don’t know if there has ever been a comprehensive study of how many games a good manager is worth or how many games a bad manager can cost a team. I can promise you it isn’s as much as most people think. For instance, on Monday night, Joe Espada made the same move as on Wednesday night. It worked once and backfired the second time. Therefore, it would be fair to assert that he is batting .500. However, I would argue that he was wrong on both nights, but that is besides the point.
I’ve already made this argument before and regular readers will be well aware of that. The difference is that the team is playing better baseball over the last month. They were nearly .500 in May and seem to be on the same trajectory in June. That means that every blunder is actually magnified that much more. A bad baseball team doesn’t need a good manager. A mediocre one could use a good manager if the rest of the league is mediocre.
Two teams have already made managerial changes and they were arguably in the same boat as the Astros. They were bigger payroll teams that came into the season with some level of expectations. The differences between how they have performed are as different as their situations. Suffice it to say that interim managers can sometimes work out, but much of the time it is more of the same. Obviously, it depends on whether they were fired for specific malpractice or just generic underperformance. Let’s look at those two situations.
Alex Cora: 10-17
Chad Tracy: 17-22
It is just one man’s opinion, but this one is on Craig Breslow the general manager. He has the most similar situation in baseball to Dana Brown and the Astros. The two were dancing most the winter, but they were dancing to two different songs. I suppose in some sense the winning percentage under Tracy has improved, but I would call this spinning their wheels.
Rob Thomson: 9-19
Don Mattingly: 28-12
This was clearly a situation of a team underperforming. I can guarantee that the Phillies were not as bad as they were under Thomson and they aren’t as good as they have been under Mattingly. However, results are results. The Phillies are now right back in the wild card race where they likely would have been to begin with.
Obviously, I’m not comparing the Astros situation to either situation. Every team is in their own soup so to speak. However, there are a few reasons why I think now is the right time to move on from Espada. It is more specific to what he is actually doing than how the team is playing.
He regularly gets outmanaged
This doesn’t happen nearly as often as it used to when pitchers hit, but the end of games is a chess match between managers. Managers choose when and if to pinch hit for certain regulars or bring in defensive replacements. They choose when to bring in certain relievers based on matchups against the other team. Espada regularly gets outmaneuvered by more experienced and more intelligent managers. In some cases he just overthinks things and makes moves for the sake of making moves.
The example I can think of was the Friday night game against Milwaukee. He broughtin Brice Mathews as a defensive replacement for some reason and then he had to hit with the bases loaded and one out. Pat Murphy manuevered right into that situation. He was thinking a couple of moves ahead. Espada was throwing darts at a board. That move likely cost the Astros that game.
He mismanages the pitching staff
I have come to call Espada Joe “One inning too long” Espada. He is constantly trying to get an extra inning out of relievers and starters. I get it on a certain level. This is epsecially true early in the year when the starters were trash. However, even now he is leaning way too often on multiple inning relief outings and there have been numerous occasions where the relievers throw a scoreless frame and then give up runs in the subsequent inning. It is to the point where they should be charged as managerial runs.
I mentioned Monday and Wednesday night. Why is Hader coming into a tie game in the ninth? Why is Abreu the guy taking the ball in the 10th. Heck, why is Abreu within 300 miles of a close game at this point? Just because a gamble works doesn’t mean it is a good gamble. Managers are generally more successful when they play the percentages. Espada doesn’t do that nearly often enough.
Sunday Fun Day
In all fairness, Espada is not the only manager to do this. Jimy Williams used to do it all the time. I called the “YMCA Everyone gets to play” Day. You empty out your bench and sub for as many regulars as you can. That waves a white flag. Obviously, it happens a lot on Snnday but Sunday is not the only day of the week Espada raises the white flag. Smarter managers stagger their load management. The rest one guy at a time.
This doesn’t even mention the fact that with all of the injuries you are hampering yourself when you give guys days off. I get that an occasional breather helps keep guys fresh but when you are starting your backup catcher (who was hitting under .100), that is probably not the best time to start both backup infielders and a backup outfielders.
Putting it all together
This is a simple math problem. If you want to get into the playoffs you need to get to between 83 and 87 wins. If you are doing that then you need to finish 11-15 games above .500 the remainder of the season. This can be a good baseball team but it is not a great one. The good news is that every team is in the same board. However, it means that you cannot afford to give away close games through routine managerial blunders. The sooner you make the change the better.
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