Max Verstappen is still under contract with Red Bull until the end of 2028, but just like a year ago, his future remains one of the main talking points in the Formula 1 paddock.
At the start of this year, the main question was whether the Dutchman would even remain in F1 because of his dissatisfaction with the technical regulations. However, because of the step-by-step adjustments towards a 60-40 split in 2028, that threat has largely disappeared.
The logical follow-up question is which team Verstappen will race for over the coming years, and in that respect the current situation feels like deja vu. It bears a strong resemblance to last year.
Back then, Red Bull also had to show Verstappen that it could turn a difficult situation around, and back then Verstappen – just like now – also saw little need to speak publicly for a long time.
That remained the case throughout the Austrian Grand Prix weekend. After the Daily Mail reported on informal talks with McLaren, Verstappen was naturally asked about his future and what he needs to see from Red Bull in order to stay.
“They know, but I don’t need to talk too much about it,” the four-time world champion said after qualifying in Spielberg.
Could McLaren really be a plausible option for Verstappen?
As for the reports about ‘informal talks’ between Verstappen and McLaren, people wearing papaya in the paddock are not denying that such conversations have taken place. Instead, they rightly point out that these kinds of discussions are perfectly normal.
“Everyone talks to everyone,” was the response, and precisely because Verstappen continues to keep his future plans open in public, it would be naive for rival teams not to have informal discussions about his current status.
Incidentally, that is exactly what Mercedes team boss Toto Wolff said last year when he was repeatedly asked about his conversations with Verstappen.
Zak Brown is “very happy” with its current driver pairing
Photo by: Sona Maleterova / Getty Images
“If there is a four-time world champion that needs to decide what he is going to do in the future, then as a team principal, it’s your duty to see where that is going,” was Wolff’s thought on the matter.
McLaren CEO Zak Brown put it slightly more diplomatically last weekend, but he did not immediately dismiss the rumours either. “I would be very surprised if Lando or Oscar went elsewhere because they are very happy,” Brown told Sky Sports F1.
“Of course we have got contracts, but, even besides that, contracts aside, we are very happy with them, and they are very happy here. If for some strange reason, someone slipped on a banana peel getting out of the tub, then of course Max is a four-time world champion.”
While the current saga is in some ways familiar, there are two major differences compared to last year. The first is that the Mercedes works team is no longer at the centre of the story. At Spielberg, Wolff stated that Mercedes does not want to change its line-up for 2027, while George Russell said once again that he will “100%” drive for the Silver Arrows next year.
Although Russell’s contract was announced as a multi-year deal, it is widely assumed in the paddock that it is a one-plus-one construction. During the April break, Russell already explained that there are clear parameters in place and that, based on those, he should be driving for Mercedes next year.
That makes sense not only because of Russell’s own performances, but also for another reason: given Verstappen’s track record against his team-mates, it would be risky to place the four-time world champion alongside Kimi Antonelli, especially as the young Italian is Mercedes’ long-term project.
Mercedes is also already in a position to fight for victories and championships with its current line-up.
Mercedes isn’t expected to have space for Max Verstappen in 2027
Photo by: Anni Graf – Formula 1 via Getty Images
That is, to some extent, the risk Verstappen accepted by not switching teams ahead of the 2026 season, although there are two reasons that explain that decision. First of all, Verstappen was unable to activate the exit clause in his contract during the 2025 summer break, although he has repeatedly stated that he would have stayed anyway, regardless of any clauses.
That fits the political reality at the time. Red Bull had parted ways with Christian Horner only a few weeks earlier, after which Verstappen stated that he enjoys working with Laurent Mekies. Within that political context, it would have been virtually impossible to announce his own departure only a few weeks later.
That made staying loyal to Red Bull – especially after the team’s significantly improved performances last year – the logical decision, but it also means that the driver market looks different one year later.
Mercedes is currently winning without Verstappen, while Ferrari also appears to have its line-up settled. Charles Leclerc signed a new contract before the Monaco Grand Prix that keeps him at the Scuderia into the 2030s. There were more doubts surrounding Lewis Hamilton after last season’s difficult campaign, but those have largely disappeared thanks to his improved performances this year.
Add to that the fact that Aston Martin – another team Verstappen was linked to – has emerged as the biggest loser under the new regulations, and it becomes logical that McLaren is now mentioned as one of the few remaining options. That would not necessarily be targeted for 2027, with 2028 potentially proving just as interesting as the driver market is expected to become more open again.
Max Verstappen contemplates a world where he moved to Aston Martin
Photo by: Mark Thompson / Getty Images
It should not be forgotten that former Red Bull key figures Rob Marshall, Will Courtenay and Gianpiero Lambiase either already work in Woking or, in Lambiase’s case, are due to join the team in 2028.
The two things Red Bull can do to keep Verstappen
The second aspect that differs from last year, aside from the driver market, is the championship situation. Despite the upturn in Austria, Verstappen is still only seventh in the standings, while his average qualifying position so far this season has been 7.4.
With only three race weekends remaining before the summer break, Verstappen is unlikely to climb into the top two or even three in the standings, making it plausible that he will be able to activate the exit clause this time – which relates to his championship position in August – should he wish to do so.
Whether he actually wants to is, naturally, the key question, and Raymond Vermeulen shed some light on that in an interview with the Dutch newspaper De Telegraaf last weekend.
Verstappen’s manager once again reiterated that the intention is to remain with Red Bull, but added that Verstappen “wasn’t born to race in the midfield”.
His average starting position so far probably qualifies as midfield, although Red Bull’s progress appears to have arrived just in time. When Verstappen was jokingly asked by Servus TV after the Austrian Grand Prix whether second place still counted as the midfield, the Dutchman laughed: “No, that’s not really the midfield anymore.”
Max Verstappen “wasn’t born to race in the midfield”
Photo by: Guido De Bortoli / LAT Images via Getty Images
First and foremost, it underlines that Red Bull has to improve its performance. Verstappen simply wants a car capable of fighting for the world championship, and if Red Bull can provide him with that – not only now but also over the coming years – then there is no reason to look elsewhere.
The upgrade packages introduced in Miami and Spielberg have largely erased the enormous deficit from the start of the season, which has gone hand-in-hand with weight reduction.
The gap has been reduced from a second per lap to just a few tenths at most, although Verstappen made it clear after claiming his second podium finish of the season that further progress is still required.
Moreover, the Red Bull Ring is a very short track where Verstappen has always excelled, meaning a more representative picture will only emerge at Silverstone and Spa.
Besides the sporting picture, there is also a commercial aspect. Could the talks with McLaren be used to increase the pressure on Red Bull – both on the track and away from it, in other words to secure an even better deal?
That line of thinking has become increasingly prominent in the paddock over recent weeks. It is plausible that the current situation ultimately results in Verstappen staying at Red Bull, but perhaps on even better terms.
The rumours put pressure on Red Bull bosses
Photo by: Mark Thompson / Getty Images
Some paddock sources even suggest a stake in the team cannot be ruled out for Verstappen over the longer term. That would be unprecedented for an active driver in the modern era, although it would fit the trend of other senior figures getting shares in teams – such as Adrian Newey following his move to Aston Martin. Interestingly, Horner also spent a long time pursuing a similar arrangement for himself.
Regardless of what the terms ultimately might look like if Verstappen decided to stay – something nobody currently has a clear view of – it does mean that the situation is unfolding on two fronts. Verstappen has to weigh up what is best for him, both on and off the track, over the coming years.
On that latter point, finances are not the only consideration. Verstappen is very active outside F1, and Red Bull gives him complete freedom in that regard. That applies not only to his GT3 activities, but also to his choice of manufacturer for those programmes, as well as embracing his own racing and sim racing projects.
McLaren has hinted that it would not necessarily be opposed to that, but at Red Bull Verstappen already finds an environment that is tailored to him. He said last year that there would be little point in talking to other teams if they were not prepared to give him the freedom to pursue his endurance racing ambitions alongside F1.
As mentioned, McLaren is not denying the ‘informal talks’, but that does not automatically point towards anything serious just yet. From the perspective of both parties, it is simply logical to have those discussions, while Verstappen has several reasons why the current situation could work in his favour.
A longer stay at Red Bull – potentially under even better terms – still appears plausible, although in every possible scenario there is a smart game being played. Verstappen had no reason to publicly reveal his intentions several weeks ago, making the current situation entirely logical: explore the market, and if no better options emerge, use his leverage in the talks with Red Bull.
Meanwhile, Red Bull has two jobs if it wants to maximise its chances of keeping him: continue the dialogue behind the scenes – as happened several weeks ago during a meeting with Red Bull’s senior management in Austria, resulting in the much-discussed photos – and, above all, continue developing the RB22. An important step was taken in Spielberg in that regard, but one swallow does not make a summer. And one thing remains unchanged: Verstappen still has time on his side.
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– The Autosport.com Team
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