When the Lakers begin their opening-round playoff series against the Rockets Saturday, they will be without Luka Dončić and Austin Reaves, both working their way back from injury.
Consequently, DraftKings Sportsbook has the Rockets priced as -600 favorites heading into the first round of the postseason. LeBron James and the Lakers are 90:1 to win the Western Conference and 150:1 to win the NBA Finals as of this writing.
Are the Lakers completely without hope, though? Using FTN’s Stats & Charting, let’s take a look at their roster to see if there is any reason to think they could make some noise during these playoffs.
Can LeBron James turn back the clock?
During the regular season, LeBron James averaged 29.1 points, 7.1 rebounds and 10.4 assists per 36 minutes with Luka Dončić and Austin Reaves off of the floor. In the past month, James has a +2.6% Field Goal Percentage Over Expectation and has scored +0.7 Points Over Expectation, indicating that he’s still been performing at a high level.
Following the All-Star break, the Lakers were 8.4 points better per 100 possessions with James on the court, compared to when he was on the bench – offering further evidence that he’s still capable of turning back the clock.
What does the supporting cast look like?
In five games following the injury to Luka, the Lakers relied on Rui Hachimura, Deandre Ayton and Luke Kennard for more contributions on the offensive end of the floor.
The good news for Los Angeles is that those players performed well in an expanded role. Hachimura, who averaged 11.5 points this season, scored 16.6 points per game down the stretch. Notably, he was 7-for-10 from the field against the Thunder and shot 50% from the field against the Suns – two playoff teams. Ayton and Kennard saw similar increases in scoring while maintaining strong efficiency.
During the team’s final 3 regular season contests, Hachimura, James, and Ayton each posted an +8.0% FGOE or better.
Does Houston have a problem?
Houston was 25-15 SU and ranked fourth in the NBA in net rating during their first 40 games this season, but lost Steven Adams to injury Jan. 18. From that point, the Rockets were 27-15 SU, but they ranked only 11th in net rating.
Houston led the NBA in rebound% (55.7%) prior to Adams’ injury, but regressed slightly in that area during the second half of the campaign. They also had the seventh-worst turnover rate in basketball during that span, which diminished the potency of their offense.
The Lakers defensive rating was 1.3 points better with Doncic off of the floor following the All-Star break. It’s not impossible to think that Los Angeles could make life difficult for Houston’s offense in the opening round.
The Takeaway
The Lakers went 10-8 SU in games with Luka Dončić unavailable and 17-14 SU in games with Austin Reaves inactive during the regular season. LeBron James had his workload monitored diligently this year, hoping to keep him fresh for the most important games of the season. The level of difficulty goes up in the playoffs, but his recent production in our Stats & Charting metrics indicate that he has plenty left in the tank. If his supporting cast can continue to knock down some open shots against Houston, there is at least a little bit of hope for Lakers fans – more than the current betting odds suggest.
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