Is Red Bull now destined for its worst result in 10 F1 seasons?

Christian Horner’s sudden departure from Red Bull Racing last week sent shockwaves through Formula 1, but it doesn’t change the team’s short-term reality as it looks set to slump to its worst result in the constructors’ table since 2015.

Whatever the final trigger for Horner’s removal, as part of a combination of factors, what has been impossible to ignore is Red Bull’s rapid downturn since its record-breaking 2023 campaign. 

Dominant spells come and go, but they are most often coinciding with regulation changes. Red Bull’s previous reign ended as F1 moved to hybrids in 2014, with Mercedes taking over until the 2022 shift to ground-effect based cars.

But Red Bull’s latest slump came so suddenly, under stable regulations no less, that it is harder to digest. At the mid-point of the 2025 campaign, it has dropped to fourth in the standings on 172 points, trailing third-placed Mercedes by 38 points and Ferrari by 50. Dominant leader McLaren is a world away on 460 points.

*Season still happening

That now means Red Bull is on course for its worst constructors’ championship result since finishing fourth in 2015, during its interregnum period with Daniel Ricciardo, Daniil Kvyat and Renault engines. So, what are its chances to avoid that unwanted statistic?

Short-term perspective

Between a Barcelona disaster, a first-lap exit in Austria and a tough wet race in Silverstone, Verstappen’s short-term results have been a lot worse than his and his RB21’s performance warranted.

Verstappen finished 10th in Spain after a self-inflicted penalty, was taken out by Andrea Kimi Antonelli at the Red Bull Ring and struggled to finish higher than fifth in the British rain after a low-downforce set-up backfired spectacularly. That has led to the reigning world champion being outscored by Nico Hulkenberg in the Sauber over the last four races.

Verstappen’s dry-weather pole in Silverstone suggests that statistical anomaly will soon disappear, though, and he will at least be in the podium hunt again in Belgium next week. Red Bull is understood to bring further upgrades to Spa-Francorchamps, which won’t change the world but should add pure performance to the RB21.

Red Bull’s issues with car balance and excessive tyre wear remain, especially on circuits with long, high-downforce corners, which doesn’t bode well for Hungary in August. But in hotter conditions Verstappen should have every chance of finishing ahead of the Mercedes cars, which keep struggling in the heat.

The second seat factor

While Verstappen is otherwise extracting the maximum out of his equipment, the real problem for Red Bull remains the same one which dented its constructors’ ambitions last season. Compared to the Dutchman’s 165-point haul, which has kept him third as the highest scoring non-McLaren driver, Yuki Tsunoda has only scored seven points for Red Bull thus far, and has increasingly looked bereft of confidence and possible solutions.

Red Bull has come to accept that changing drivers once more will further hinder its chances rather than boost it. Under incoming team principal Laurent Mekies, Tsunoda has a new boss that has witnessed first-hand what the Japanese driver can do at sister squad Racing Bulls, and had long championed his promotion while Horner was more reluctant until his latest gamble on Liam Lawson didn’t work out.

But if Red Bull is really going to take the fight to Mercedes and Ferrari, Verstappen is going to need help – and he is going to need it soon. According to advisor Helmut Marko, who is otherwise not inclined to paper over lacklustre driver performances, Tsunoda has been making some progress behind the scenes, and the Austrian says he is “hopeful” that will translate into results soon. 

Yuki Tsunoda, Red Bull Racing Team

Photo by: Andy Hone / Motorsport Images

“Yuki has struggled on some GP weekends, but we already saw an upward trend in England: the gap to Max was smaller than before in most of the free practice sessions, and he was able to start from eleventh place on the grid in England,” Helmut Marko said in his Speedweek column.

“We’ve had intensive discussions with Yuki; he also works with sports psychologists. Unfortunately, like Max, he had no chance in the race with this wing. But we’re noticing an improvement in performance, and we’re optimistic that this will soon be reflected in the points.”

Verstappen: “We can’t compete at every track”

Marko claimed Verstappen’s individual title fight still isn’t over yet. “We’re far from writing off the title,” he added. “We still have 12 grands prix and four sprints ahead of us, which equates to 300 world championship points from the GPs and 32 from the sprint races.

“Against this backdrop, and also due to further improvements for Belgium, which should bring us closer to McLaren, we certainly don’t see the fight for the world championship as over.”

It is certainly a break from what Verstappen has said himself, who felt that while his new Red Bull floor has helped, he is still miles away from being in a position to challenge Lando Norris and Oscar Piastri in most conditions. And even the latest floor specification didn’t prevent Red Bull from suffering crippling understeer, which apparently could only be dialled out by a risky choice for a lower downforce rear wing.

“Look, in our team there are always a few people who think everything is possible. But that’s not really how it works, of course,” Verstappen said. “I think that’s been quite clear so far, that we can’t compete at every track.

“Silverstone suits us reasonably well with all those high-speed corners, but there aren’t many tracks like Silverstone on the calendar. So, if you look at the average of all tracks, I think we’re still lacking a bit. 

“Races are all about tyre management and that’s been an issue for us over the past year. We’re just not as good at it compared to McLaren. And that’s harder to solve. The updates work, sure, but it’s not enough. We know that. We are pushing all flat out, myself, the whole team, to try and be more competitive.”