Much of the Astros issues tie back to Crane’s decisions (or lack thereof). Is he willing to step up and fix them, or is he willing to eat his words?
“I made a statement the other day that as long as I’m here the window’s open. So I’ve got to live up to that.” Those are the words of Astros owner Jim Crane, as said to PaperCity Magazine’s Chris Baldwin back in February 2024.
Crane takes his belief that the “window is always open” very seriously. He is competitive, he wants to win. He’s also a very intelligent, very shrewd businessman, and he isn’t blind to what is going on with his franchise right now.
After dropping 3 of 4 at home to the Seattle Mariners, the Astros find themselves in a very tenuous position. They are now 11 games under .500 as we approach Memorial Day. Memorial Day is the unofficial quarter marker of the season, and the time when records start to matter. Being 10 games under .500 at Memorial Day is Red Alert.
There has been no end in sight for the litany of injuries this team continues to suffer from. With 14 players currently on the IL, the Astros’ depth has been seriously tested yet again, and with suboptimal results. For a team that entered the season without SPs Ronel Blanco, Hayden Wesneski, and Brandon Walter, it then lost Cy Young finalist Hunter Brown, Cristian Javier, and for a time Tatsuya Imai (more on him shortly).
The depth the team built in the offseason with starting pitching has been ripped through. Ryan Weiss, brought over from the KBO after several successful seasons there, has flopped. Jason Alexander, who pitched well for the team last season after they grabbed him off waivers, has also flopped. Colton Gordon, who pitched 86 sometimes good/sometimes not so good innings for Houston last season, has flopped as well.
Nate Pearson, signed in the offseason recovering from surgery with the idea he could get an opportunity to start, has already been converted to a reliever in the minors while rehabbing. Kai-Wei Teng, who succeeded as a reliever for Houston thus far, is being tried as a starter and the results have not been as strong. Cody Bolton has spot started and worked as a multi-inning reliever with middling results (4.76 ERA), and those middling results are among the most positive the team has received from is depth so far.
Crane did not want to risk exceeding the tax line in the offseason, so GM Dana Brown was forced to work in the margins. So far, those decisions have mostly failed.
The biggest moves the team made in the offseason were the trade for SP Mike Burrows and the signing of free agent Tatsuya Imai.
Burrows is a young pitcher who only had one season of MLB experience and showed some promise. He was tremendous all spring. As soon as the regular season began, he suddenly became homer prone with an inability to finish off batters. Burrows currently has allowed the most hits in the league (60 in 50.1 IP) and his HR/9 rate has increased from 1.2 last season to 1.8 this season. He has allowed 10 HR in 50.1 IP this season after allowing 13 in 96 IP last season. His walk rate from last season is about the same, but his K/9 rate is down almost a full strikeout from last year (9.1 in 2025 to 8.2 this season).
Tatsuya Imai was the top pitcher coming from Japan this season and one of the top pitchers on the free agent market. A surprisingly soft market for Japanese players allowed the Astros to swoop in and get him at a significant discount. Imai has tremendous stuff, and was a highly accomplished pitcher in Japan.
Imai dominated all spring, but like Burrows, once the regular season started, something went haywire.
Imai looked strong in the first 2 innings of his first start of the season, then experienced Steve Blass syndrome (can’t find the strike zone) in the 3rd inning against the Angels, walking a pair of guys while giving up 3 hits and had to be lifted. He was strong in his second start, and threw 5.2 scoreless with 9K. In his third start, he recorded only one out and walked 4 of the 7 batters he faced. He went on the IL with ‘arm fatigue’ afterwards.
Imai struggled to find the strike zone while rehabbing in the minors, but was called up anyway despite clearly not being ready because the Astros are desperate for starters. Imai was put in a bad spot, and predictably failed as he allowed 6 ER in 4 innings, with 5 hits, 3 walks and 2 home runs allowed. Despite having an arsenal with 5 pitches, he chose to only throw 2 of them, his fastball and his slider. The slider is what often did him in.
Perhaps the Astros could have made other decisions with their pitching, but the budget didn’t allow it. Despite Framber Valdez’ need for a personal therapist at times, he is still a top pitcher and workhorse who has pitched among the most innings in baseball the last 4 seasons. Considering the contract he eventually settled for, it seemed like a player the Astros could have re-signed if they wanted to. Maybe he had worn out his welcome in Houston, but for a team that for the past 2 seasons has been decimated by pitching injuries, he was going to be a difficult person to replace. Clearly, they have been unable to fill that void as well.
In the bullpen, Josh Hader had a setback after being shut down in August last season, and still has not returned. Of course, the team acted as if his return to start the season was a guarantee all offseason, and then his timeline suddenly started getting pushed back further and further. Hader is now expected to return approximately May 24. When it comes to a closer you have a $95M investment in, it is wise to be careful with his rehab. It also would have been wise to make better contingency plans.
Bryan Abreu, expected to fill his role as closer while Hader rehabbed, had a sudden loss of velocity and command, and started the year terribly. He was eventually removed from the closer role and put in lesser leverage situations to regain his form and confidence. While his velocity is still not where it should be from a total velocity or consistency standpoint, he has been improved in his performances of late. That said, he still doesn’t look like the Abreu who has been among the most dominant relievers in baseball the last 4 seasons.
Bennett Sousa, who assumed the mantle of the 8th inning setup man last season when Hader went down before he also went down with elbow inflammation, missed the start of the season rehabbing from an oblique strain and is now back on the IL after 5 appearances with elbow inflammation.
Steven Okert and Bryan King, both coming off career seasons, have not been as effective as last season. Their bullpen has been the worst in MLB this season.
Crane is well aware that the Golden Era of Astros baseball was rooted in pitching and run prevention. The Astros have the worst pitching in all of baseball right now, they lack the ability to fix it from within, and they have not shown that they can stay afloat until they get some of their horses like Brown and Javier back from injury.
The time for this team to act is now, before the hole they dig is too big to escape. Even in a weak division, they are burning runway in a hurry. At least one Wild Card team is likely to have a better record than the AL West division winner, possibly more. While the standings say the Astros aren’t so far back they can’t make it up, being the team that surrenders the most walks and most runs is certainly says the road will be too difficult to hoe.
Jim Crane now finds himself at a crossroads. He has chosen to have lame ducks at both manager and GM. While there is no indication that Joe Espada has lost the clubhouse or that players are tuning him out, there is also no way of knowing if Dana Brown truly has the authority to make the moves necessary to try to get this team turned around.
With an important amateur draft coming up for Houston in which they have 8 picks in the first 6 rounds, including picks 17 and 28 overall, the Astros have a chance to add some quality talent to their rebuilding farm system. Right now, 5 of Houston’s top 8 prospects are in A ball or lower. Their only two Top 100 prospects are both at Fayetteville, and both very young (Kevin Alvarez is 18, Xavier Neyens is 19).
A ‘rebuild from within’ for this team is essentially 3 seasons away at a minimum, and since Crane has stated he isn’t about a rebuild, it certainly seems something is going to be done. The question is what and in what direction?
Would Crane bite the bullet on this season, trade off veterans with 1-2 years left on expensive deals (Walker, Hader) and players the team is unlikely to be willing to re-sign to expensive, long-term deals (Pena) to shed payroll, get prospects, and re-tool in the offseason with a different group and make another run immediately?
Would the window that is always open simply be repaired? Would it be under construction for multiple seasons?
That one year vs multiple years situation is the key to the Astros doing the absolutely unthinkable, and that is trading Yordan Alvarez.
Trading the super-elite star player rarely works in baseball, because the prospects you get back – even if they pan out – very rarely pan out to be the same quality of player who is a total game changer. Boston tried this with both Mookie Betts and Rafael Devers and they are in last place in the AL East with a team that cannot hit. The Nationals did this with Juan Soto and despite 3 of the prospects they received panning out, are still under .500 and traded one of those players away already (Mackenzie Gore).
The Astros made a smart play in trading Kyle Tucker, who they knew they couldn’t re-sign. They got back a solid player in Isaac Paredes who has become a fan favorite. Hayden Wesneski has spent most of his time on IL. Cam Smith was the big prospect who they got in return, but they have pushed him too fast because they didn’t have another option for RF and his development has stalled.
In a smarter timeline, Cam Smith would have played last season at Triple A and then been promoted at some point this season. We aren’t in that timeline.
Crane is a very proud man. He does not take losing well, and he doesn’t take it lightly. However it isn’t a stretch to say that his decisions of payroll restriction on a team that has printed money for a decade and leaving his GM out to dry again (see Click, James) have led to what is mostly an untenable situation with his baseball team.
He can empower Dana Brown to make the moves that need to be made to improve the team (which could mean parting with a player like Walker, Paredes or Pena), though it’s usually hard to trade this early. He could give Brown the green light to cut some dead weight and bring up a player like Alimber Santa who is pitching very well in the pen for Sugar Land but isn’t on the 40-man roster yet.
He could give Dana Brown the direction to demote players who are badly underperforming, like Cam Smith, and give other players (Zach Cole, Zach Dezenzo, Shay Whitcomb; Joey Loperfido when he returns from IL) a regular opportunity while letting Cam rediscover his swing in the minors. This seems to me like a simple, logical decision, but may be one Crane has to force.
Crane is not afraid to assert himself, nor is he afraid to insert himself into the day-to-day operations of the team (see Verlander, Justin; Greinke, Zack; Abreu, Jose; Montero, Rafael) for better or worse. Crane is not afraid of “the bucks stops here”, and it is something that made him the best sports franchise owner in the history of this city.
Yet here the Astros are, 45 games into a 162 game season but already 11 games under .500 and with a pitching staff both decimated by injuries and in disaster mode, needing answers and direction. There seems to be only one person who can give it to them.
He is also the person who writes the checks.
If Crane wants to stand on his word of “the window is always open”, he is going to be the one who needs to roll his sleeves up and make it work. He has done it before.
It’s decision time. Which way will Crane go? We probably find out very soon.
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