Sometimes, it pays to put the numbers down and take a deep historical look at things. Teams fire managers in the season nearly every year, but it is fairly rare to see teams fire their manager before the halfway point in the season. In fact, coming into the season it had only happened six times since 2000. However, the Philadelphia Phillies were the second team this season to fire their manager on Tuesday morning. The Boston Red Sox also fired Alex Cora last week.
This is obviously pertinent since many in Astros nation are calling for the head of Joe Espada. Thoughts usually go back to 2004 when the Astros fired Jimy Williams after the midpoint of the season and Phil Garner led them to the NLCS. However, that one doesn’t count because Williams had made it through the halfway point. We can break these six situations down to see if success should be predicted with a change here in Houston. Obviously, every situation is different, so past results are not a guarantee of future results, but it pays to look at the history of these things.
The Marlins Can Everyone
The Marlins make the list three times since 2000. What we want to do with all of these is look at the record before and after the change to see if there was general improvement. Like I have said many times, our memories often play tricks on us.
2001: John Boles (22-26)
Tony Perez (54-60)
Those winning percentages are almost identical. So, at best the move would be ineffectual and Perez did not continue to manage long after taking the job. As you can see, the Marlins did this again just a couple of years later. It would be fair to assert that few teams are run more shoddily than the Marlins.
2003: Jeff Torberg (16-22)
Jack McKeon (75-49)
This is obviously probably the historical example people will go back to. The Marlins won the wild card and went on to beat the Yankees in the World Series. This was a veteran laden team that seemingly needed a kick in the pants. They may have turned around on their own. I suppose we will never know.
2011: Edwin Rodriguez (32-39)
Jack McKeon (40-50)
So, lightening does not strike twice. The Marlins tried it again with the aging McKeon and the team did not get any better and eventually finished in fourth place in the NL East. When doing a longitudinal study one can look at the aggregate or simply go situation by situation. In two out of the three situations, the team’s fortunes were not improved.
The Phillies Have Done This Before
All that is old is new again. Rob Thomson was the beneficiary of this move in 2022 and that story should seem familiar since that was the team the Astros beat to win their second World Series title. Like with the Marlins, the Phillies were beneficiaries of the wild card as they were not able to overtake the Braves in the NL East, but got hot at the right time.
2022: Joe Giradi (22-29)
Rob Thomson (65-46)
An 87 win team usually does not get very far in the playoffs and it is nothing to write home about. The Phillies got hot at the right time to be sure. Was that Thomson? Who the heck knows? Giradi had been a playoff manager with the Yankees and Phillies prior to that, so there is reason to believe he could have righted the ship on his own. Now, the Phillies will try to have lightening strike twice with Don Mattingly.
2025 May Have Started a Trend
Two teams did this last season as well. It is important to note what the objective is. If you fire a manager that early in the year you are trying to turn things around. Maybe you think you have an outside shot at the playoffs or maybe you are so far out of the hunt that you just want to get an earlier look at a managerial candidate.
2025: Bud Black (7-33)
Warren Schaeffer (36-86)
I can’t call Schaeffer a failure per se. His winning percentage was better than Bud Black’s because can you really be that much worse a .175 clip over 40 games. They won 43 games, but this is one of the worst teams statistically in baseball history. Schaeffer deserves extra credit for avoiding what the White Sox had achieved before them. However, the further you get away from it, the more it looks like you are just spinning your wheels.
2025: Ron Washington (36-38)
Ray Montgomery (36-52)
I’ve never been a Washington fan, but this one was more due to health concerns than anything else. The Angels obviously tabbed Kurt Suzuki this year, so Montgomery was not particularly impressive. This might be the only case where the interim manager performed significantly worse than the initial manager. I suppose at least any team thinking of doing this could hang their hat on that.
Putting It All Together
Simply put, most teams either performed about the same or worse before and after firing their initial manager. The 2003 Marlins and 2022 Phillies were notable exceptions. Obviously, every situation is different and the lab is not a place to recommend moves necessarily. Simply put, if history is our guide then it is more likely than not that any interim manager this year would fare about as well as Joe Espada has. However, I suppose there is always a chance it would work.
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