After seemingly holding off the June swoon during the first couple of weeks of Aaron Judge’s absence, the Yankees succumbed in full, losing nine of ten games while their offense completely went to sleep. Their standing in the division, which looked strong just a few weeks ago, New York leading by four games, has slipped, with the Rays now three games up in the AL East.
The Yankees were always going to struggle at some point without Judge, but this latest stretch has of course been particularly brutal. Now that they’ve let the Rays open up a gap again in the division, how nervous are you that the Yankees will fade out of the AL East chase?
In truth, this AL East race has already been a rollercoaster. You can see it in FanGraphs’ division odds, which show the Yankees’ division chances shooting up before falling off three separate times this season:
You may notice that as things stand, the Rays and the Yankees have the same division odds, at least by FanGraphs’ estimation. Baseball Prospectus has anointing Tampa Bay as the division favorites, while betting markets have the Yankees as narrow favorites for now.
Based on the odds, it would seem like now is a great time to feel pretty nervous about the Yankees’ chances of earning the division crown. The team’s odds by FanGraphs have peaked at almost 90 percent multiple times this year, only for the Yankees to fumble things away, with the Rays now in front according to the projections.
Yet on the other hand, the fact that the projections still put this as a toss-up could provide Yankee fans some comfort. Despite how awful the team has played in recent weeks, how putrid the lineup has been for long stretches, the team isn’t out of it, has easily the best run differential in the American League, and still has something like a 50 percent chance to take the division.
Moreover, the Yankees stand to add more to their roster over the next month than their rival Rays, something that’s not fully baked into any projection. Not only will the Yankees get Max Fried, Judge, and Giancarlo Stanton (hopefully) back at some point, but they are perennially more active than Tampa at the trade deadline. Though the Rays have a stronger farm system, it’s not Tampa’s M.O. to dip into that farm system to add veteran help midseason; the Rays’ whole model relies on having scores of young players on hand to replace their current big-league contributors who threaten to age out and/or make more money. The Yankees, despite accusations of prospect hugging, typically make several major-league additions to their roster every summer during which they contend.
Overall, I think the FanGraphs odds have it about right: the Rays may have nudged in front in the standings, but the Yankees are by no means out of it and must act with urgency to fight their way back. What do you think? Are you nervous that the team will fall out of it entirely, or do they still stand a good chance to come back?
This morning, Sam continues our Trade Deadline coverage with a look at the Detroit Tigers, who are still on the playoff bubble but could prove to be sellers this month. Also, Andrew delivers today’s Rivalry Roundup, Jeff profiles George Moriarty, and Michael analyzes the last week down on the farm. And in the afternoon, Peter’s At-bat of the Week features more strong work from Trent Grisham.
Today’s Matchup
New York Yankees at Tampa Bay Rays
Time: 6:40 p.m. EST
TV: YES, Rays.TV, TBS
Venue: Tropicana Field, St. Petersburg, FL
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