How Marquez can seal the 2025 MotoGP title at the Japanese GP

The Japanese Grand Prix at Motegi in two weeks will represent Marc Marquez’s first opportunity to seal the 2025 MotoGP world championship.

The Spaniard’s title has looked inevitable since the beginning of the season, but only now can he mathematically put the matter beyond doubt.

Should the factory Ducati rider confirm his seventh championship in Japan, he would take the crown with five race weekends still remaining in the 22-round season.

To do so he would need to emerge from the Japanese weekend with a lead of 185 points heading to the following round in Indonesia. After his victory in the San Marino Grand Prix last weekend, he will fly east with a lead of 182 points over his brother Alex.

The bigger picture, then, is simple: Marc needs to stretch his advantage over Alex by three points at Motegi.

The mathematics are such that Marc won’t be able to win the title before Sunday. What exactly he needs to do on that day will depend on the outcome of the Saturday sprint – but it’s certain that he will get his shot at closing the deal in the grand prix.   

Even if Marc doesn’t score at all on the Saturday, while Alex wins, that would reduce the gap to 170 points. But the 25 points available in the GP would still make the 185-point lead – and the title – a distinct possibility for Marc.

Looking at a scenario in which Marc wins the sprint and Alex finishes second, the older brother will go into Sunday with exactly the advantage he needs at the end of it: 185 points. All he would then need to do is finish ahead of Alex in the grand prix – or that they both fail to score any points.

A reversed result on Saturday would mean a gap of 179 points heading into the grand prix. In that case, Alex could keep the title race open by finishing second or better on the Sunday.

Should Marc seal the championship in Japan, it would have special significance given the six MotoGP titles he won with local manufacturer Honda. Marquez switched to Italy’s Ducati in 2024, when he laid the foundation for this year’s dominant campaign.

But the rider himself says that where he wins the championship doesn’t matter.

“I have huge respect for Honda,” he said after winning on Ducati’s home ground at Misano on Sunday. “It doesn’t matter if we celebrate in Japan or Indonesia. Winning in Japan isn’t something special.”

He said he was still reeling at the fact that a title opportunity has come so early, and warned against the dangers of complacency.

“It’s something amazing,” he said. “It still looks unreal but I don’t want to lose any concentration. I just want to keep the same level. It’s true that it looks like it is a matter of time before we achieve our main goal – but I want to keep pushing and finish the season in the best way possible.

“I know we need to try to close [the championship] as soon as possible but I know Alex is super fast and he is also fighting for second place in the championship. So let’s see if we can keep going with the same mentality and the same level.”