The NBA Draft Lottery is Monday night, meaning some lucky team will find itself with a promising start, and in some cases a clean slate — oh, there’s a difference — if it gets its hands on Duke forward Cooper Flagg, this year’s sure-fire No. 1 pick.
Flagg, who is 6-foot-9 and a two-way force at power forward who reminds many of Mavericks star Anthony Davis, is not only supremely athletic but has a floor game that should flourish with the more spaced-out NBA game.
By all accounts, Flagg could soon develop into a no-nonsense franchise player.
But still, the No. 1 overall pick is no guarantee. Every player who is selected at the top of the draft is expected to be legit — hence going No. 1 overall. But as we know, basketball is a fickle beast, and there are a number of factors that can affect a player’s career success.
How does Flagg — as a prospect — compare to former No. 1 selections over the past 10 years. Anyone can look at the results with the power of hindsight and discern who’s had the best career. But we are doing something a little different: How does Flagg compare to the previous 10 top overall selections when viewed through the lens of how each player entered the pre-draft conversation?
(Dillon Minshall/Yahoo Sports illustration)
2024: F Zaccharie Risacher, Atlanta Hawks
Risacher is a forward like Flagg, and his size is also comparable to the Duke star. Yet, that’s where the comparisons pretty much end. Flagg is stronger, more athletic (which is saying something), and his defensive game is already levels ahead.
Offensively, it’s another Flagg win. His ball-handling, playmaking and ability to function as a finisher are far superior to Risacher’s skill.
The edge: Flagg
2023: C Victor Wembanyama, San Antonio Spurs
Well, let’s not beat around the bush here. Wembanyama was a one-of-a-kind prospect and is superior to Flagg in virtually every facet of the game, and, yes, that’s based on how Wembanyama played for French team Metropolitans 92.
Defensively, the 7-4 do-it-all big man had (and still has) the potential to go down as potentially the most influential defender of all time, and offensively his 3-point shot, vertical spacing and overall shot creation are all elements that projected him as eventually becoming the best player in basketball.
The edge: Sorry, Coop. It’s easily Wemby.
2022: PF Paolo Banchero, Orlando Magic
This is where things get interesting, as Banchero hails from the same college program and played not just a similar position but also a similar role for Duke.
Banchero was further along offensively, especially in regards to creating offense for himself. Defensively, Flagg is way ahead of where Banchero was, and they’re comparable rebounders. Yet, when it comes down to it, Flagg’s offense is closer to Banchero’s than the Magic star’s defense is to Flagg’s.
And remember, Banchero was no slam dunk at No. 1. Chet Holmgren was also very much in the discussion, along with Jabari Smith Jr.
The edge: Flagg
2021: G Cade Cunningham, Detroit Pistons
Cunningham finally broke out this season, but a few years of injuries and subpar play — compared to expectations — has allowed us to forget the 6-6 point guard came into the 2021 NBA Draft with Luka Dončić comparisons, which isn’t nothing.
Cunningham’s size, touch, playmaking, post play and ability to influence a game as a lead creator was viewed as enormously special, to the point where he was seen as a can’t-miss prospect. Turns out, those assessments were right.
The edge: Minor advantage to Cunningham, but they’re in the same ballpark.
2020: G Anthony Edwards, Minnesota Timberwolves
At Georgia, Edwards was a straight bucket, but questions hovered around his playmaking, defense and ability to make winning plays, which is why LaMelo Ball and James Wiseman were also in contention for the top draft slot. We now know the Wolves made the right call.
But since we have to judge Edwards on his pre-draft form, Flagg’s overall influence and potential is viewed as far superior.
The edge: Flagg
2019: F Zion Williamson, New Orleans Pelicans
Another day, another Duke power forward. This one is simple, as Williamson projected as a potential MVP candidate and sure-fire star, and was from the get-go perceived as an elite scorer — a perception that turned out to be true.
Flagg’s two-way play might project more friendly to NBA teams, but despite Williamson not having the same defensive potential, he was viewed as an other-worldly offensive powerhouse who could fundamentally change the future of an NBA team.
The edge: Williamson
2018: C Deandre Ayton, Phoenix Suns
We all know this was the Dončić draft, even if the Suns, Kings and Hawks didn’t get the memo. So we have to make due with Ayton, who at his highest point with Arizona saw David Robinson comparisons and at his lowest was viewed as someone who could bust.
Flagg projects as a much safer selection with a higher floor, even if the upside might not quite compare to the best projected version of Ayton. But keep in mind Ayton wasn’t viewed as a major difference-maker defensively.
The edge: Flagg
2017: PG Markelle Fultz, Philadelphia 76ers
Oh boy, this one is about to divide the waters because most will not remember Fultz’s season at Washington, which is the premise of these comparisons — not NBA success.
But let’s be real: In Fultz’s lone college season he looked as if he were Dwyane Wade with a 3-pointer. That’s the type of prospect he was. A franchise-altering 6-4 lead guard who could eventually get 30 per night, while balancing playmaking and point-of-attack defense.
The edge: Fultz, but we can probably already say Flagg will have the better professional career.
2016: Ben Simmons, Philadelphia 76ers
Simmons was a ridiculously good all-around player with elite defensive upside during his one year at LSU. He’s the one prospect who’s similar in size to Flagg, and who compares well defensively to the Duke star.
Unfortunately for Simmons, that’s pretty much where it ends. Yes, Simmons could pass like nobody’s business, but his lack of shooting ability didn’t allow him to fully explore his playmaking capabilities, making him an extremely difficult player to build around. And yes, those concerns were indeed real back then.
The edge: Flagg
2015: C Karl-Anthony Towns, Minnesota Timberwolves
While he hit at the NBA level, there were plenty of questions about Towns. After all, he played just 21.1 minutes per game at Kentucky and barely cracked 10 points per game.
He had great size, significant athleticism and his touch was tremendous, especially for someone 7 feet tall. Yet he simply didn’t do enough at the collegiate level to stack up.
The edge: Flagg
For those keeping score, Flagg has the overall edge 6-4, meaning he’s an elite prospect at No. 1, and whichever team gets the top pick should feel pretty good about its future on Monday night.
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