2025 season: Eliminated Sept. 27
With the Astros eliminated from the 2025 postseason, let’s take a look at the season that was in Houston, the questions the team must address this winter and the early outlook for next year.
Read more: MLB offseason previews 2025: What’s next for the White Sox, Pirates, Twins and more?
Things that went right
Although they faltered at times down the stretch, the Astros were led by a pitching staff that struck out more batters than any other team. Hunter Brown emerged as the staff ace and one of the best starters in baseball. He led the team in ERA, WHIP and strikeouts, and though he was unable to pitch, he was chosen to represent the Astros in the All-Star Game for the first time. Framber Valdez was as reliable as ever, as he posted strong ratios while leading the team in wins and innings.
The bullpen was outstanding as well. Josh Hader was an elite closer before he was sidelined in the middle of August due to a shoulder strain. And there was an army of elite setup men, led by Bryan Abreu and including Bryan King, Steven Okert and Bennett Sousa.
Although the team was less impressive offensively, Jeremy Peña deserves recognition for a breakout season. The shortstop dramatically improved his rate of reaching base, which allowed him to become an outstanding leadoff hitter who also made an impact on the basepaths. Like Brown, he was selected for the All-Star Game but was unable to appear in the contest.
Lastly, Mauricio Dubón is a surprising member of this section. Despite making minimal offensive contributions, Dubón was a major reason the Astros stayed on course while dealing with several injuries for most of the season. The 31-year-old played every defensive position except catcher and finished the campaign ranked among the top 10 in baseball in Fielding Run Value.
Things that went wrong
The Astros fell apart when the games mattered most. They opened September by losing three consecutive series against the Yankees, Rangers and Blue Jays. Then came the biggest blow, when they were swept at home by the Mariners. They didn’t recover from that debacle, as they went to Sacramento and dropped a series against the Athletics before losing Friday to the Angels and getting eliminated with the Tigers’ and Guardians victories Saturday.
The Astros deployed a below-average offense, and their struggles were especially notable in the second half. The absence of superstar slugger Yordan Alvarez was a big part of the problem. He went on the IL on May 5 due to what was originally diagnosed as right hand inflammation. The injury was later revealed to be a fracture, and he remained out of action until Aug. 26. Not only did Alvarez appear in just 48 games, but he also logged a .797 OPS across those games after entering the season with a career mark of .973.
There were also disappointments unrelated to injury. After establishing himself as a consistent power hitter with Arizona, Christian Walker joined the Astros on a three-year contract in the offseason. Unfortunately, his year-over-year OPS dropped by roughly 100 points. Catcher Yainer Diaz experienced a notable dip in offensive performance for a second straight season. And although it’s unfair to pin the team’s offensive struggles on a rookie, it’s worth noting that Cam Smith made little offensive impact as a full-time player after arriving in the Kyle Tucker trade.
If there was one complaint about the pitching staff, it was the inability to get reliable starter innings from anyone other than Brown and Valdez. The pitchers who finished third to fifth on the team in games started — Ryan Gusto, Colton Gordon and Lance McCullers Jr. — all logged ERAs over 4.90.
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Offseason outlook
Although the Astros have several points of uncertainty this offseason, their infield is mostly set. Diaz will return as the No. 1 catcher, but he has work to do after having marginal offensive success and playing mediocre defense at such an important position. Victor Caratini is heading to free agency. He held plenty of value this season as a backup who started often at catcher, first base and DH.
Walker will look for a bounce-back season at first, and it’s worth noting that his play improved in the second half. Carlos Correa and Peña will be the starters at third base and shortstop, respectively. There’s also Isaac Paredes, who hit well until he was sidelined for two months due to a hamstring strain suffered July 20. He or Jose Altuve, who split 2025 between second base and left field, will be the second baseman. Dubón will be back to play wherever he is needed on any given day.
The outfield has options but is mostly in a state of flux. Alvarez could be a full-time DH, but he is also an option in left field. Smith is the right fielder and will hope to improve his offensive play in his sophomore season. Jake Meyers should be the center fielder, as he made strides with his offensive game and played excellent defense this year. Jesús Sánchez arrived from Miami at the trade deadline and can play either corner outfield spot. The best guess is that he will play left against righties, with Alvarez sliding to DH on those days.
Once we get past Brown as the staff ace, the rotation is unsettled. Valdez is heading to free agency and will be one of the most sought after pitchers on the open market. While there are plenty of other rotation options, each comes with some degree of uncertainty. Spencer Arrighetti missed most of the season due to a broken right thumb and then was shelved in September due to elbow inflammation.
Cristian Javier returned in August from 2024 Tommy John surgery, and Luis Garcia came back in September, more than two years after his 2023 Tommy John procedure. Unfortunately, Garcia made just two starts before returning to the IL due to elbow discomfort. Gordon is just 26 years old and will try to show that he can be more effective than he was this year. Overall, this group needs one more reliable veteran, whether it’s Valdez or someone else.
The bullpen is in great shape, as all of the key members from 2025 are scheduled to return. That includes Hader, Abreu, Okert, King and Sousa. Given that Hader had injury issues late in the season, it would make sense for Houston’s front office to resist the urge to trade away any of these relievers to solve issues in the rotation.
Prospects on the horizon
For years, the Astros have ranked near the bottom of the majors in prospect rankings. But the organization must be doing something right, as the Astros qualify for the postseason almost every year.
There are a couple of position players who could contribute next year: infielder Brice Matthews and outfielder Jacob Melton. Both players looked overmatched in brief major-league trials this past season. Matthews is a burner who wreaks havoc on the basepaths and knows how to draw a walk. Melton missed a significant portion of 2025 due to injury and will likely open 2026 in the minors, but he should get another chance once injuries open up a roster spot.
The lone pitching prospect who is nearing his debut is Miguel Ullola. The righty has enough swing-and-miss in his game, but his control skills were lacking this season (6.2 BB/9 rate). He will need to make major strides in that area before he can help the Astros.
Goals for 2026
It became official when Seattle snapped Houston’s string of four straight AL West titles: This division has caught up with the Astros. And the Mariners aren’t the only problem, as the Rangers hung around in the division race until the second half of September, and the Athletics are close to turning the corner on a long rebuild. The Astros could certainly return to the top of this group in 2026, but it won’t be easy.
For this team to remain a contender, general manager Dana Brown will need to address Houston’s rotation. This is especially true if the goal is to thrive in October, not just make it there. The rest of the team is good enough to continue winning, especially if Alvarez can stay healthy all season.
Fantasy focus
Alvarez and Brown will garner the most fantasy attention, with both likely to be selected in the range of Round 3-4. Managers will have a tough time valuing Alvarez, as he’s one of the best pure hitters in baseball but is also prone to injury. Brown is a much safer option and will be valued as a top-10 pitcher.
Peña, Altuve and Hader represent the next tier of Astros fantasy options and should be selected in Rounds 5-7. Hader might go even earlier if he proves in spring training that his injury woes are behind him. There will be a gap before the next Houston players are selected, but Diaz, Correa, Walker, Javier and Garcia will appear at various points in the later rounds of drafts.
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