After drafting our teams in late March, we were all in the same boat — optimistic, excited and ready to grind our way to a fantasy baseball championship. Fast forward three and a half months, and our paths have diverged. Some of us nailed our early-round picks, with studs such as Bobby Witt Jr. or Nick Kurtz, while others had the misfortune of drafting Vladimir Guerrero Jr. or Garrett Crochet. And some managers wisely plucked the likes of Jordan Walker, Miguel Vargas and Louis Varland from the waiver wire, while others were a day late or a dollar short on the best free agents.
We are all now in one of three situations that can be summarized with one question:
Be honest, is your team going to make the playoffs?
There are three possible answers:
1. Definitely
2. Possibly
3. Unlikely
The answer to that question determines how you need to manage your team over the next few weeks.
The Yahoo regular season ends on Sept. 6. That means that managers have 8.5 more weeks to qualify and prepare for the postseason. And the default Yahoo trade deadline is on August 6, which means that managers have just three weeks to make moves that involve star players.
Let’s look at common plans for teams in each of the three situations.
Definitely making the playoffs
Managers who have enjoyed terrific success thus far can use the ability to shift into cruise control to their advantage. Here are some common strategies:
1. Make 2-for-1 trades: The top teams likely have deep rosters. Managers can use this to their advantage by making deals in which they trade a couple good players for one superstar. After all, these managers have already proven to be proficient on the waiver wire, so why not open up another roster spot to use in search of another gem? With eight weeks to fill the opening, these managers may even want to make a 3-for-1 trade or multiple 2-for-1 deals in order to create plenty of space. Raising the ceiling of their team before the playoffs should be the biggest goal.
2. Make long-term waiver-wire moves: These managers can skip the steps of streaming players who can help them win this week. Instead, they can use the final spots of their roster to look toward the future. This may mean holding extra injured players who have the potential to make a massive impact in September. Or stashing players who have the potential for a major value surge later in the summer, such as closers-in-waiting or youngsters.
Possibly making the playoffs
To me, these are the teams who are in the most exciting situation. Sure, not everything has gone as planned, but enough things have gone right for these teams to have exciting weekly matchups all summer and still hopefully play for a championship in September.
1. Consider 1-for-2 trades. This isn’t one-size-fits-all advice, but some teams in this bucket have holes in their lineup. The holes may be a specific position or in category leagues, there may be a category in which the team is continually falling short. In either case, it’s hard to count on finding an immediate savior on the waiver wire at this point in the season. These managers can consider giving up one excellent player for two good ones, but in all of these circumstances they need to feel that they are clearly winning the trade. For example, Bobby Witt Jr. is having an excellent season but hasn’t been more valuable than Brice Turang. In many leagues, the Witt manager could trade him for Turang and a second valuable player who plugs a hole in their lineup.
2. Stream, stream, stream: Needing to squeeze out every weekly point and stat possible means that these managers need to get aggressive with their streaming. They will need to view their last roster spot as a revolving door of pitchers, as they target those with favorable upcoming matchups. It’s time to take chances.
Unlikely to make the playoffs
1. Take the names out of trade talks: Some fantasy writers and podcasters will play games where they reveal two stat lines without the player names, in hopes of showing managers that certain players have been surprisingly valuable or disappointing. Of course, removing the names is sometimes a fool’s errand, as they simplify a player’s story down to a few months of work, rather than assessing the full picture of their career. However, teams that need to make bold moves to turn their season around can take the names out of trade talks in hopes of finding lightning in a bottle. For example, Miguel Vargas has outperformed Bryce Harper so far this year but could likely be acquired along with a second valuable player for those who are willing to deal Harper. The same can be said of Foster Griffin and Chris Sale. Would I rather have Sale for the stretch run? Absolutely. But I’ll take my chances on Griffin if I can get him for much less.
2. Never give up: There are two reasons that fantasy managers should play out their season. The first is that their weekly matchups will impact the overall standings, and giving points away by packing up early could cost deserving teams a playoff spot. The second reason is that miracles do happen. Luis García Jr. produced 11 homers and 27 RBI in June. JJ Bleday hit .301 with eight homers and 25 RBI in May, which was the same month that Davis Martin went 4-0 with a 2.05 ERA and 0.88 WHIP. I could go on and on, as there is a constant flow of waiver wire options who temporarily become game-changing players. In some leagues, a manager is going to stumble on a few July/August success stories and climb from the bottom half of the standings into a playoff spot.
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