To my mind, there are seven teams with some shot at the NBA title, but I’d also be shocked if a June parade isn’t held in OKC, Denver or on the River Walk in San Antonio (and that last one feels like a longer shot).
Title Contenders
1. Oklahoma City Thunder
(64-18, last week No. 1)
Defending champions. Best defense in the NBA. Best and most clutch player in the NBA who is about to be a two-time MVP in Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. However, this team’s real superpower is its ability not to look ahead during the regular season and to build good habits. “You go through the regular season, there’s different opponents every night that present different challenges, but it always starts between you and yourself,” coach Mark Daigneault said.
2. Denver Nuggets
(54-28, last week No. 2)
Don’t read anything into the Nuggets’ victory over the Spurs on the final day of the season, other than it sets up those two teams for a titanic second-round clash. The real key to that series could be Peyton Watson, who missed the end of the regular season with a strained hamstring but should be good to go for the playoffs (at least the second round). Denver will need his athleticism on both ends of the court to make the conference finals.
3. San Antonio Spurs
(62-20, last week No. 3)
Can the inexperienced Spurs win it all this year? “I mean, why not?” Julian Champagnie told NBC Sports. “I think that we’ve been putting in work all year. Obviously, we had no clue what we were gonna look like at the start of the year, but we always had a goal of going to the playoffs. And I feel like, if you can get there, you have a shot.”
4. Boston Celtics
(56-26, last week No. 4)
The betting favorite to come out of the East, Boston went 13-3 in the games Jayson Tatum played after returning from a torn Achilles. He returns to a Celtics team that showed surprising depth and had Jaylen Brown stepping up to an MVP-level while Tatum was out. We’ve all got questions about rotations and how players such as Baylor Scheierman and Neemias Queta perform under the bright lights of the playoffs, but Joe Mazzulla’s team has answered every question to this point.
5. Detroit Pistons
(60-22, last week No. 5)
For much of the season, the conventional wisdom had been that the Pistons were good but a player short of really contending for a title. But do they already have everything they need? With Cade Cunningham missing 11 games late in the season due to a collapsed lung, Jalen Duren stepped up in the paint — as he did all season — and Daniss Jenkins stood out on the perimeter, and the Pistons went 8-3. They may not be the betting favorite to come out of the East, and they lack much playoff experience, but bet against them at your own risk.
In The Hunt
6. New York Knicks
(53-29, last week No. 6)
This is a make-or-break playoffs in New York — Tom Thibodeau was fired last offseason after getting the Knicks within two games of the Finals. Mike Brown is expected to do better, but Karl-Anthony Towns has never looked fully comfortable in Brown’s offense, and the Knicks’ defense under pressure remains a question. New York is on a second-round collision course with Boston, and if the Knicks are knocked out of the playoffs without even reaching the conference finals, this summer could be a wild one in the Big Apple.
7. Cleveland Cavaliers
(52-30, last week No. 8)
I put Cleveland in this tier because I can see a path for it to the Eastern Conference Finals. This team went 19-7 once James Harden arrived, and coinciding with that, Evan Mobley played his best ball of the season. They should handle Toronto in the first round, but do we really trust James Harden and these Cavaliers in the second round if they face Detroit and that stout defense? Cleveland has a chance to show it should be considered a bigger threat in its current iteration, but if it falls flat in the second round, big changes are on the horizon.
Playoff Teams
8. Houston Rockets
(52-30, last week No. 7)
Houston is a flawed team compared to the top three teams in the West, but it may have lucked into the one series it could win in the first round, facing the banged-up Lakers. Amen Thompson is going to be asked to smother LeBron James, and the Rockets will keep throwing other long defenders at the 41-year-old — Tari Eason will get a shot, as will Jabari Smith Jr. — in an effort to wear him down. There are questions about the Rockets’ offense, but against the Lakers’ defense, it should be able to score enough points. Is making the second round considered enough of a success for this Rockets team?
9. Minnesota Timberwolves
(49-33, last week No. 9)
Does anybody trust this team heading into the playoffs? We’ve seen them flip the switch for stretches, but much of the season they have not compared to the team that made the Western Conference Finals the last two years. Julius Randle did not play well down the stretch of the season, and the Timberwolves’ halfcourt offense has been middle-of-the-pack all season. It’s hard to be a believer right now, but there is a good team in there somewhere.
10. Atlanta Hawks
(46-36, last week No. 10)
The Hawks went 20-6 with a +9.7 net rating after the All-Star break, with Jalen Johnson cementing what should be an All-NBA season for him, and Nickeil Alexander-Walker, who thrived in an expanded role. The Hawks did that behind the second-best defense in the NBA after the break. If I were going to pick one first-round playoff upset, it would be Atlanta beating New York — that is on the table.
11. Los Angeles Lakers
(53-29, last week No. 12)
Luka Doncic may be back from Spain and whatever specialized hamstring treatment he got there, but it’s still difficult to imagine him being able to return for this series (could he be ready for a game 6 of 7?). That means the Lakers are going to ask LeBron James to jump in the Hot Tub Time Machine and be the 2016 version of himself, which is a big ask for the 41-year-old who will be hounded by younger defenders all the way up the court. Even if LeBron can lift the Lakers’ offense, will their defense be good enough in the postseason to give them a chance?
12. Toronto Raptors
(46-36, last week No. 14)
Toronto did sweep the season series from the Cavaliers, but all those games came before the Harden trade that dramatically changed Cleveland, so it’s hard to read too much into them. Toronto is going to have to win this series with its defense, which is why the hamstring injury in the season’s final game to Immanuel Quickley — he is week-to-week — hurts, they will need his ball pressure. Toronto also needs Scottie Barnes to play like an All-NBA forward to have a chance.
13. Charlotte Hornets
(44-38, last week No. 11)
Charlotte didn’t just finish above .500 and make the postseason, it did that despite being the unluckiest team in the NBA — the Hornets have the point differential of a 53-win team (the same as the Knicks). Having LaMelo Ball, Kon Knueppel and Brandon Miller in the play-in will be fun, and if they can string together a couple more wins, they could make Detroit really have to work for a first-round win. Charlotte is building something real and we’re about to see it on a national stage.
14. Phoenix Suns
(45-37, last week No. 13)
Because they have been so steady and doing this all season long, we may have overlooked what an impressive turnaround season this is for the Suns. Jordan Ott is on my Coach of the Year ballot for a reason, he was fantastic. Dillon Brooks and Devin Booker set the tone and changed the team culture. Now, can their top-10 defense shut down the young and athletic Trail Blazers and get the Suns into the playoffs?
Play-In Teams
15. Portland Trail Blazers
(42-40, last week No. 15)
It feels like all the arrows in Portland are pointing up: New owner who seems committed to spending to win, breakout seasons from Deni Advija and Donovan Clingan, and over the last 15 games of the season the best defense in the league. That defense and enough offense from Advija or others will get the Trail Blazers into the playoffs, which is a huge step up for them this season.
16. Los Angeles Clippers
(42-40, last week No. 16)
It’s a credit to Tyronn Lue’s coaching and leadership that this team started 6-21, traded away James Harden and Ivica Zubac, and still finished the season above .500 and looking like a threat to come out of the play-in. LA’s showdown with Golden State on Wednesday is the best game of the first round of the play-in, but if the Clippers can get out of this to face Oklahoma City, they can make the Thunder work for it.
17. Philadelphia 76ers
(45-37, last week No. 19)
No Joel Embiid for the play-in or (if they make it) the first round of the postseason following an appendectomy. Philadelphia has a flat -0.3 net rating this season when Tyrese Maxey and Paul George are on the court and Joel Embiid is off it. Will that be enough to beat Orlando in the first game of the play-in, a showdown between disappointing teams? Philly without Embiid is not much of a threat in the first round.
18. Orlando Magic
(45-37, last week No. 17)
For all the talk about injuries and whether the Magic should move on from the Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner era (both legitimate topics), the real question is this: What happened to the Orlando defense? Top two in the league the previous two seasons, the Magic fell out of the top 10 in the league on that end this season, and that was their fundamental problem. Expect coach Jamahl Mosley to pay the price for that, barring a highly unexpected deep playoff run.
19. Miami Heat
(43-39, last week No. 18) 2-1
Can Miami jump from the No. 10 seed to the playoffs for a second straight season? It’s a much tougher road this time around, facing red-hot Charlotte first, and if Miami wins that, moving on to get Philadelphia or Orlando. If/when Giannis Antetokounmpo becomes available via trade, expect the Heat to dive in and try to scoop him up.
20. Golden State Warriors
(37-45, last week No. 20)
Stephen Curry is back and that gives the Warriors a chance to escape the play-in as the No. 10 seed, but it’s a long road. First, the Warriors have to beat Kawhi Leonard and the LA Clippers on the road, then travel again to take on Portland or Phoenix. This summer, don’t expect the start of a rebuild in the Bay Area; expect them to push all their chips in and try to round out a roster around Curry that can compete for the playoffs and more (and yes, that might mean another run at Antetokounmpo.
Tanking Teams
21. Dallas Mavericks
(26-56, last week No. 22)
The hardest part of any rebuild — landing the superstar, team cornerstone player — is taken care of with Cooper Flagg, who lived up to the hype (even if he is not going to win Rookie of the Year). Now the work comes in loading up the roster around him, particularly with more shot creation and shooting, which the Mavericks sorely lacked.
22. New Orleans Pelicans
(26-56, last week No. 21)
Zion Williamson played 62 games, averaged 21 points a game on 60% shooting, and this team still won just 26 games. Things flowed a lot better once Dejonte Murray returned from a torn Achilles – he came back looking a lot closer to his 2022 All-Star self. The coaching search is underway — interim coach James Borrego is in the mix — and expect massive roster changes over the offseason. There’s a lot of interest in Herb Jones and Trey Murphy III, not quite as much in Zion, but some teams might be kicking the tires on that idea.
23. Chicago Bulls
(31-51, last week No. 23)
There’s a new front office coming in, which means predicting the future in Chicago is next to impossible (other than Matas Buzelis isn’t going anywhere). That includes for coach Billy Donovan, team ownership has said the new head of basketball operations has to fit with the coach, but Donovan flirted with North Carolina and other teams are interested, could he be on the move this offseason?
24. Indiana Pacers
(19-63, last week No. 26)
Tyrese Haliburton played some 5-on-5 recently, and when he returns healthy next season with Ivica Zubac at the five and Pascal Siakam on the wing, this is going to be a very good team. A genuine threat in the East. What would make them more threatening is adding a top four pick — Indy has a 52.1% chance of getting that, but there is a 47.9% chance their pick goes to the Clippers (part of the Zubac trade). It’s in the hands of the basketball gods now.
25. Milwaukee Bucks
(32-50, last week No. 24)
Doc Rivers is out and (sorry, Bucks fans) it looks very likely Giannis Antetokounmpo will follow him out the door this summer. The rebuild is coming in Milwaukee and this could be a long one because the team mortgaged its future to try and win with the Greek Freak (and they did, there is a banner hanging at the FiServ Forum). What the Bucks get back in any Antetokounmpo trade will help speed up the rebuild.
26. Sacramento Kings
(22-60, last week No. 25)
Doug Christie will be back as the Kings coach, and there was some promise for the future with with Keegan Murray and young big man Maxime Raynaud, but aside that it’s tough to imagine any of the top four scorers on this team — Zach LaVine, DeMar DeRozan, Domantas Sabonis or Russell Westbrook — being back with the team in a year. A roster overhaul is needed and coming.
27. Memphis Grizzlies
(25-57, last week No. 27)
The teardown and rebuild of the Grizzlies started last summer with the Desmond Bane trade, now Jaren Jackson Jr. is in Utah and the only one of the old core still in place is Ja Morant — expect him to be traded this summer. This team needs an overhaul and it’s coming.
28. Utah Jazz
(22-60, last week No. 30)
After three seasons, the bottoming out of the Utah Jazz is over — this is going to be a playoff team next season. There’s a lot to like with Keyonte George at the point, a front line of Jaren Jackson Jr., Lauri Markkanen, and Walker Kessler, and Ace Bailey showing he should have a role in what is being built. Plus, there is whoever the team drafts this year. Jazz fans should be optimistic.
29. Brooklyn Nets
(20-62, last week No. 28)
Brooklyn kept all five of their first-round draft picks last year, and not one of them will make an All-Rookie team this season. That is a big swing and a miss (although Egor Demin could be someone worth watching). The Nets are in line for a top-seven pick this year, they need to nail it and start righting the ship.
30. Washington Wizards
(17-65, last week No. 29)
Washington successfully tanked their way into keeping their top-eight protected pick this year. That pick will add more talent to a roster that includes Trae Young (expected to get a short contract extension), Anthony Davis, Alex Sarr, Kyshawn George and Tre Johnson. The Wizards are going to be a respectable team next season.
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