San Diego Padres right fielder Fernando Tatis Jr. came into the media interview room during the 2025 and 2026 Padres FanFest talking about how good he felt and how he was going into the most productive years of his career. In 2025, he said that when he was healthy and his head was in the right place that he was the best player in baseball.
In 2026, during his media availability, Tatis talked about the mechanical issues that plagued his 2025 season. He said that those issues are behind him and they were all swing mechanics that he couldn’t discuss but that would not bother him going forward. During the player forum Q&A, Tatis said his goal was to reward the fanbase with an MVP season. He said he owed it to fans to improve his performance and deliver on his promises.
As Padres fans know, Tatis has been plagued since his PED suspension with accusations that his previous success as a player (2020 and 2021) were steroid related and he will never be able to equal those performances without cheating. There is no secret regarding the issues that have affected Tatis during his time as a major league player. His shoulder injury in 2021 that affected his swing until it was repaired in September of 2022. The wrist injury that required two surgeries and is probably responsible for his steroid use (despite the claims of ringworm treatment that he used to explain it).
In 2023, after returning from his steroid suspension and wrist surgeries, Tatis had diminished bat speed and exit velocity. Only Tatis knows if that was due to recovering from two wrist surgeries or was PED related. But his numbers since then seem to indicate that the pre-PED numbers are not far off from what he has accomplished in 2024 and 2025, except for a key stat.
According to Baseball Savant, Tatis had an average exit velocity of 93.5 in 2024 (97th percentile) versus an exit velocity of 95.9 (100th percentile) during his 2020 season. His hard hit percentage in 2024 was 99th percentile compared to 100th percentile in 2020. His bat speed in 2024 was 86th percentile but that was not measured in 2020.
In 2025, his exit velocity was 93.3 and 95th percentile. His hard hit percentage was 93rd percentile and his bat speed was 77th percentile. The strange and unexplainable stat that stands out from last season was his sweet spot percentage. Although never a high number for Tatis, his previous average was in the 40-45 percent when he was hitting well. For 2025 it dropped to four percent, the lowest of his career by far.
As a result, his power was down, his slugging percentage was down by 42 points and he made almost constant adjustments to his swing throughout the season. He had the best K-rate of his career, improving for three seasons in a row. His walk rate was the best of his career and he had his lowest chase rate of his career.
So what does all this indicate? Other than his launch angle, which has fluctuated significantly throughout his career, the biggest issue with his swing last season was his inability to hit the baseball on the sweet spot of the bat. All his other numbers indicate that he is very similar to the guy who broke into the Padres line up in 2019 and had an amazing 2020.
Is that a mechanical issue and can it be fixed? Tatis seemed to indicate in his media statements that he has addressed his issues and expects this season to begin the most successful stretch of his career.
The only way Tatis can dismiss the steroid discussion is to meet and/or exceed what he had accomplished prior to his suspension. If he can approach the success he had his first full season in MLB, and then hold onto some of that success while being regularly tested for PEDs, it becomes a possibility for him to outperform the allegations.
There is no doubt that Tatis Jr. wants to be that guy. His obvious affection for and devotion to his team and the fans is admirable. He wants to reward the team and the fans with a performance that lives up to his potential. Tatis wears his emotions on his sleeve and that can be a blessing or a curse. Last season, it was obvious he wasn’t happy. This season will hopefully provide the Padres and their fans a look at the real Tatis.
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